Keeneland Select

Aqueduct Hotlist - April 8

Apr. 07, 2023

By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
A preferred horse to watch                                 B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

1st race [Clm 16000 N2L, 1 mi] – (7) Romanoatsee (D) was bet down from 9-1 to 6-1 after a series of starts at this N2L condition where he had wide trips and a couple of top three finishes. (5) Union Lights broke his maiden for a $20,000 tag three races back with a speed figure that tops this field. He then tried two fields that were just too tough and now drops to an appropriate level to win. (1) Downtown Connector was a winner last time in a $20,000 maiden also but moves to the logical spot to face winners for the first time. (6) Patrick the Great was third most recently at this level after his first win was against NY-breds.

3rd race [Gazelle (G3), 1 1/8 mi] – (5) Occult won her last two starts with a maiden win at Aqueduct and then an almost four-length victory in the nine-furlong Busanda in January over Affirmative Lady the recent winner of the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2). (6) Shidabhuti has a perfect record in three starts and like the top choice is a Chad Brown runner. She won her debut at Monmouth Park in September by more than six lengths. With time between races she was an allowance at Belmont Park to start this year and then became a stakes winner in the Busher going a mile. (3) Frosty O Toole will make her first start for Todd Pletcher after she was privately purchased by Eclipse Thoroughbreds after her recent first two wins which happened at Tampa Bay Downs in a maiden and an allowance. (2) Gambling Girl has a series of solid performances in three stakes races for Pletcher. She was fourth in the Honeybee (G3), second in the Busanda, and third in the Demoiselle (G2). She won a NY-bred stake at Aqueduct last year.

6th race [Bay Shore (G3), 7F] – (5) Joey Freshwater ran a career high speed figure last month when he rallied for second by a neck in an allowance. That came after a third in the Jimmy Winkfield where he finished behind the unbeaten Drew’s Gold. (3) Victory Way was a debut winner by two-lengths for Bill Mott at the Big A with odds of 5-2 when he rallied from a pressing position going the seven-furlong distance. (2) Gilmore began his career on the dirt in California with a four-length victory going a mile at Los Alamitos for Bob Baffert. To start his 2023 campaign he  was second in the El Camino Real Derby on the Tapeta at Golden Gate Fields. He made his first start for Brendan Walsh in the Battaglia at Turfway Park. The cutback to seven-furlongs and the return to dirt seem like ideal moves. (7) Prove Right has pair of sprinting allowance victories mixed amongst several stakes races where he finished second at Parx Racing and third in the Nashua (G2) at Aqueduct.

8th race [Carter (G1), 7F] – (3) Expressman was a spectacular debut winner at Saratoga in August earning a 107 Beyer Speed Figure going seven-furlongs. In his most recent start in February, he won an allowance at Gulfstream going nine-furlongs. The cutback to today’s distance may put Expressman in a winning position. (4) Repo Rocks won his last four starts with two at Parx and the most recent were at the Big A in the seven-furlong Toboggan (G3) by more than eight-lengths and then in the Stymie going a mile. (5) Little Vic is also based at Parx and has found success in New York with a win in the Tom Fool (G3) that earned at triple-digit Beyer. (6) White Abarrio ships up to New York from Florida after a strong allowance victory at Gulfstream going the Carter distance with a career best speed figure. In December he was a close third in the Cigar Mile (G1) at Aqueduct and the trainer then set the Carter as a goal.

Best bets: Occult (3rd); Joey Freshwater (6th). Best value: Romanoatsee (1st); Expressman (8th).

Saturday Pick 3 Special --
The Saturday Special $1 Pick 3 covers races 1-3 and includes the Gazelle (G3)  à 1, 5, 6, 7 with 6 with 2, 3, 5, 6 = $16.

last race
Today's RaceComments
(7)RomanoatseeD on 3/251Took late money last time after a few wide trips in a row.