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Keeneland Select

Belmont Park Hotlist - July 1

By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
 A:
A preferred horse to watch                                 B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

6th race [Dwyer (G3), 1 mi] – (2) Saudi Crown is unbeaten in two starts in Kentucky for Brad Cox and will now have to stretch out to a mile, but he is likely to do what Cox 3-year-olds do which is to win stakes races. (5) Fort Bragg moves back to the barn of Bob Baffert after running second by a neck in the Pat Day Mile (G2) on Kentucky Derby weekend.  This was clearly the best race of his career, but the winner ran poorly in the Woody Stephens (G1) the next time out. (3) Harrodsburg broke his maiden in his debut in March for Rob Atras at Aqueduct then was beaten by a nose in an allowance earning a tie for the high speed figure in the field. (6) Joey Freshwater tried the turf last time and did not respond well after winning the Bay Shore and running third in a pair of other stakes.

8th race [Alw 50000s, 1 1/16 mi TURF] – (11) More Than Work (C) was bet down from 7-1 to 5-1 going longer than today’s distance, had the lead at the stretch call, and then finished second behind a return winner of an allowance for his third in a row. (2) Timbuktu finished second missing the win by a neck in his first start for Rick Dutrow. (6) Shinsun was a close fourth in his 2023 debut making up ground and should get a good set-up from a fast anticipated pace. (12) Kingfish Stevens moved to the turf and has run his two best races with a huge jump in speed figures.

9th race [John A. Nerud (G2),76F] – (3) Weyburn returned to the best form of his career in his three starts this year including a stakes win at Gulfstream Park and should continue to move forward with the trainer change to Todd Pletcher. Three of his four victories were at seven furlongs. (1) Candy Man Rocket won 4 out of his last 5 starts with three firsts this year including the recent Runhappy (G3) at Belmont Park. He won his only start at today’s distance. (2) Three Technique won a high-level allowance at Churchill at the end of May. (7) Synthesis has four career wins going seven-furlongs. Last time he ran into the division leader Elite Power.

10th race [NY, Md 40000, 1 1/16 mi TURF] – (6) Your Mission (A) was taken up at the break last time and then rallied very wide from far back in 12th to finish second. (2) Miracle Mike moved to the turf, dropped in for a tag for the first time, and finished third behind the Hot List horse. (1) Aula has two starts this year where he raced on the grass for a tag and made two big improvements in speed figures. (7) October Bliss did his best running when he pressed the pace and both times finished second.

Best bets: Saudi Crown (6th); Weyburn (9th). Best value: More Than Work (8th); Your Mission (10th).

Saturday Pick 3 Special --
The Saturday Special $1 Pick 3 covers races 8-10 including the John A. Nerud (G2) à 2, 6, 11 with 1, 3 with 1, 2, 6, 7 = $24.

No.NameLetter
last race
Today's RaceComments
(11)More Than WorkC on 6/48Had the lead at the stretch call and finished second.
(6)Your MissionA on 5/1310Taken up at start and rallied wide from 12th to get the place spot.