Keeneland Select

Belmont Park at Saratoga Tip Sheet - June 6

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 64% of the time at this track.
 
 RACE #1    $115,000 Maiden Special Weight
 7 Furlongs ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 11:00 AM ET
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN3-54Cold SpellJ R Velazquez
PLACE10-16NakomaE J Zayas
SHOW15-11Three Shot SherylJ Rodriguez
WILD CARD10-15FusionF Prat
 
ALTERNATE 16-13Pippa AddsI Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 28-17Crowning GloryJ Alvarado
    
* EXACTA: 4-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/6 BOX, 1/5/6 BOX
    
 
 RACE #2    $125,000 Allowance Optional Claiming
 7 Furlongs ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 11:37 AM ET
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN2-19Senior OfficerI Ortiz Jr.
PLACE9-53Life and TimesF Prat
SHOW5-14Incentive PayM Franco
WILD CARD6-18CommutedR Santana Jr.
 
ALTERNATE 120-16Awesome NativeC Elliott
ALTERNATE 230-11Paradise ValleyS Gonzalez
    
* EXACTA: 9-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX, 4-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/9 BOX, 3/4/8 BOX
    
 
 RACE #3    $125,000 Allowance Optional Claiming
 1 1/16 Miles ON THE Inner turf - POST TIME: 12:15 PM ET
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN6-58IntellectF Prat
PLACE5-16Tenacious LeaderJ R Velazquez
SHOW4-19CandytownI Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD12-11EjtimaaJ L Ortiz
 
ALTERNATE 110-14Twos a CrowdJ Lezcano
ALTERNATE 210-17Son of a BirchK Carmouche
    
* EXACTA: 8-6 BOX, 6-9 BOX, 9-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/8/9 BOX, 1/6/9 BOX
    
 
 RACE #4    $120,000 Allowance Optional Claiming
 6 1/2 Furlongs ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 12:53 PM ET
 
BEST BET:  #2 NAIVE MELODY
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN3-12Naive MelodyD Davis
PLACE8-17Helens RevengeJ Lezcano
SHOW6-14Speightful LilyF Prat
WILD CARD7-23Steer ClearI Ortiz Jr.
 
ALTERNATE 14-16ChatterJ L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 28-11P Mutter PickleM Franco
    
* EXACTA: 2-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/7 BOX, 3/4/7 BOX
    
 
 RACE #5    $120,000 Allowance
 1 1/16 Miles ON THE Turf - POST TIME: 1:31 PM ET
 
BEST BET:  #2 EPONINE
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN3-12EponineJ L Ortiz
PLACE5-110ImperatriceI Ortiz Jr.
SHOW9-29MarketplaceofideasD Davis
WILD CARD5-16Curlins AngelE J Zayas
 
ALTERNATE 18-11EtawaJ Castellano
ALTERNATE 26-18Scarletts HaloF Prat
    
* EXACTA: 2-10 BOX, 10-9 BOX, 9-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/9/10 BOX, 6/9/10 BOX
    
 
 RACE #6    $120,000 Allowance
 6 1/2 Furlongs ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 2:09 PM ET
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN8-114Gun RangeL Saez
PLACE5-25Local KnowledgeJ R Velazquez
SHOW4-18Sea StrikeF Prat
WILD CARD20-12Village PersonK Carmouche
 
ALTERNATE 150-113StrategicoperationD A Rivera
ALTERNATE 26-11Playa Del MarM Franco
    
* EXACTA: 14-5 BOX, 5-8 BOX, 8-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/8/14 BOX, 2/5/8 BOX
    
 
 RACE #7    $500,000 Stakes
 1 Mile ON THE Inner turf - POST TIME: 2:47 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $500,000 JUST A GAME STAKES GRADE I
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN7-53SegestaF Prat
PLACE3-12SandtrapM Franco
SHOW8-15And One More TimeJ Castellano
WILD CARD12-18Deep SatinJ L Ortiz
 
ALTERNATE 19-24MandanabaC Lecoeuvre
ALTERNATE 26-11Classic QJ R Velazquez
    
* EXACTA: 2,3,5,8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2,3/2,3,5,8/2,3,4,5,8
 
COMMENTS: SEGESTA is the only horse to show better early pace and fractions last out. SANDTRAP could really pop or drop in the second start after more than a year off. AND ONE MORE TIME is undefeated in three at the distance. DEEP SATIN competed nicely versus the top pick and could offer the best betting value in the race.
 
    
 
 RACE #8    $400,000 Stakes
 6 1/2 Furlongs ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 3:25 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $400,000 TRUE NORTH STAKES GRADE II
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN8-53BentornatoI Ortiz Jr.
PLACE2-16Bookem DannoP Lopez
SHOW4-12ImaginationF Prat
WILD CARD15-15FaustJ L Ortiz
 
ALTERNATE 130-14ListenupshanceA Fresu
ALTERNATE 212-17Be YouJ R Velazquez
    
* EXACTA: 3,6/2,3,5,6
* TRIFECTA: 3,6/2,3,6/2,3,4,5,6,7
 
COMMENTS: BENTORNATO should sit right off the pace and roll by at the end. BOOK EM DANNO hit triple digit speed figures in seven of his last ten races and the last four in a row. IMAGINATION could benefit from cutting back in distance and won the last time trainer Bob Baffert took off some distance. FAUST is a consistent performer that could be the pacesetter but will need to reach a new level to win here.
 
    
 
 RACE #9    $500,000 Stakes
 5 1/2 Furlongs ON THE Turf - POST TIME: 4:13 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $500,000 JAIPUR STAKES GRADE I
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN5-110My Boy PrinceJ L Ortiz
PLACE3-16Ag BulletJ R Velazquez
SHOW4-15Reef RunnerI Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD7-23LitigationF Geroux
 
ALTERNATE 110-18John the Beer ManK Carmouche
ALTERNATE 26-14Works for MeF Prat
    
* EXACTA: 3,5,6,10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5,6,10/3,5,6,10/3,5,6,8,10
 
COMMENTS: MY BOY PRINCE just missed in the last out and should be better in the classic third start after a layoff. AG BULLET is working well for her first race since late November. REEF RUNNER has the top closing numbers in the race and usually fires first up. LITIGATION is almost an all or nothing horse with six wins with a second and third in a dozen races.
 
    
 
 RACE #10    $500,000 Stakes
 7 Furlongs ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 4:52 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $500,000 WOODY STEPHENS STAKES GRADE I
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN9-56Crude VelocityF Geroux
PLACE8-11Gilded BanditJ Alvarado
SHOW8-12ObliterationJ R Velazquez
WILD CARD3-17EnglishmanJ L Ortiz
 
ALTERNATE 16-15Solitude DudeF Prat
ALTERNATE 210-18Civil LibertyA Fresu
    
* EXACTA: 6/1,2,5,7 KEY BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1,6/1,2,6,7/1,2,5,6,7
 
COMMENTS: CRUDE VELOCITY ran similar fractions at a mile in his last as he did in a sprint the previous start. GILDED BANDIT showed electric late pace in the last two and gets some more length today. OBLITERATION hit a triple digit speed figure in the last race and his past performances hint at major improvement in round two off the sidelines. ENGLISHMAN is going to go forward and could stay there with the right tempo.
 
    
 
 RACE #11    $1,000,000 Stakes
 1 Mile ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 5:32 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $1M HILL N DALE HANDICAP GRADE I
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN9-51NysosF Prat
PLACE5-27JournalismJ L Ortiz
SHOW10-15Rated by MeritD Davis
WILD CARD8-14Saudi CrownI Ortiz Jr.
 
ALTERNATE 17-26KnightsbridgeJ Alvarado
ALTERNATE 215-12VibeL Saez
    
* EXACTA: 1/4,5,6,7 KEY BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1,7/1,4,5,7/1,4,5,6,7
 
COMMENTS: NYSOS has a tremendous late speed advantage over the rest of these of nearly four lengths. JOURNALISM ran triple digit speed figure in his last nine starts and usually pairs strong mid and late moves. RATED BY MERIT won his lone mile run going wire to wire as the heavy favorite. SAUDI CROWN is a tough call over KNIGHTSBRIDGE but is working better and gets the services of Irad Ortiz.
 
    
 
 RACE #12    $1,000,000 Stakes
 1 3/16 Miles ON THE Turf - POST TIME: 6:11 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $1M MANHATTAN STAKES GRADE I
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN2-17RhetoricalI Ortiz Jr.
PLACE7-25DeterministicK Carmouche
SHOW3-16Bright PictureF Prat
WILD CARD8-13Make Me KingJ L Ortiz
 
ALTERNATE 16-18One StripeG Lerena
ALTERNATE 212-14IntegrationJ R Velazquez
    
* EXACTA: 3,5,6,7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5,6,7/5,6,7/3,5,6,7,8
 
COMMENTS: RHETORICAL won three of four on Toga turf with a third. DETERMINISTIC is the defending champion and could go wire to wire again. BRIGHT PICTURE is a little bit of a wild card as his best work is on an off track but won six of eleven versus stiff company. MAKE ME KING hit triple digits on the speed gun in his US debut and has a strong work since.
 
    
 
 RACE #13    $2,000,000 Stakes
 1 1/4 Miles ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 7:04 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $2M BELMONT STAKES GRADE I
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN3-13Chief WallabeeJ Alvarado
PLACE2-14RenegadeI Ortiz Jr.
SHOW6-17CommandmentJ R Velazquez
WILD CARD6-18Emerging MarketF Prat
 
ALTERNATE 112-12PowershiftL Saez
ALTERNATE 29-29Golden TempoJ L Ortiz
    
* EXACTA: 3,4,7,8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3,4,7/3,4,7,8/2,3,4,7,8,9
 
COMMENTS: This race could set up perfectly for CHIEF WALLABEE as he should be close to the font and has dynamite late speed. RENEGADE hit the board and makes the third start after a layoff for the first time. COMMANDMENT is the best bias fit with as an outside closer. He wins or runs off the board in his six races. EMERGING MARKET just needs to rewind to his Louisiana Derby win to take this.
 
    
 
 RACE #14    $120,000 Allowance
 1 Mile ON THE Inner turf - POST TIME: 8:02 PM ET
 
BEST BET:  #6 BLOWN COVER
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN12-17Tiz TroubleJ Alvarado
PLACE5-18ElnajdI Ortiz Jr.
SHOW9-212Sounds Like a PlanR Santana Jr.
WILD CARD5-110OutrunnerP Lopez
 
ALTERNATE 115-16Blown CoverJ Rodriguez
ALTERNATE 24-15Favorable ScenarioF Prat
    
* EXACTA: 7-8 BOX, 8-12 BOX, 12-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 7/8/12 BOX, 8/10/12 BOX