Breeders' Cup World Championships at Keeneland: October 30-31. Learn More.

Keeneland Select

Breeders' Cup SaturdayTip Sheet - October 31

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 61% of the time at this track.
 
 RACE #1    $150,000 Maiden Special Weight
 7 Furlongs ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 11:15 AM ET
 
BEST BET:  #4 KNICKS DIAMONDS
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN10-14Knicks DiamondsF Arrieta
PLACE6-12HighwaymenJ L Ortiz
SHOW8-55PowerlineF Prat
WILD CARD8-17Bourbon NeatA Concepcion
 
ALTERNATE 15-18Supreme CommanderT Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 220-11CandorB J Hernandez Jr.
    
* EXACTA: 4-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/5 BOX, 2/5/7 BOX
    
 
 RACE #2    $165,000 Allowance Optional Claiming
 7 Furlongs ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 11:50 AM ET
 
BEST BET:  #9 RIGHT IN TIME
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN5-29Right in TimeJ Alvarado
PLACE9-26Shes ToastyL Saez
SHOW5-14HarmoniouslyJ L Ortiz
WILD CARD6-18Dont Tell MomJ R Velazquez
 
ALTERNATE 17-25VirabhadrasanaF Prat
ALTERNATE 28-13Master QueenJ A Torres
    
* EXACTA: 9-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX, 4-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/6/9 BOX, 4/6/8 BOX
    
 
 RACE #3    $185,000 Allowance Optional Claiming
 6 1/2 Furlongs ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 12:25 PM ET
 
BEST BET:  #11 SAUDI CROWN
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN5-211Saudi CrownF Prat
PLACE8-12SteezeJ Alvarado
SHOW8-19Sir GreylindF Arrieta
WILD CARD4-11BoothJ L Ortiz
 
ALTERNATE 18-15Extra AnejoK J Asmussen
ALTERNATE 230-13Jimmy RulesW A Rodriguez
    
* EXACTA: 11-2 BOX, 2-9 BOX, 9-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/9/11 BOX, 1/2/9 BOX
    
 
 RACE #4    $1,000,000 Stakes
 7 Furlongs ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 1:10 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $1M BC FILLY AND MARE SPRINT GRADE I
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN7-52Ways and MeansF Prat
PLACE8-19Sweet AztecaJ J Hernandez
SHOW4-111ExploraJ L Ortiz
WILD CARD8-14R DisasterT Gaffalione
 
ALTERNATE 115-17EvanescenceL Saez
ALTERNATE 230-110Simply JokingM Franco
    
* EXACTA: 2/4,7,9,10,11 Key Box
* TRIFECTA: 2,9/2,4,9,11/2,4,7,9,10,11
 
COMMENTS: WAYS AND MEANS recorded a triple digit speed figure in seven of his last ten races. Any of those would likely be good enough here. SWEET AZTECA has won six of six races off the bench like today including his debut. EXPLORA has three wins and a couple of close seconds in five at the distance. R DISASTER could be the pacesetter and his confidence grows if he maintains the lead into the stretch.
 
    
 
 RACE #5    $1,000,000 Stakes
 5 1/2 Furlongs ON THE Turf - POST TIME: 1:48 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $1M BC TURF SPRINT GRADE I
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN5-23BacioJ J Hernandez
PLACE8-16Yellow CardF Prat
SHOW3-17Comanche BraveB Loughnane
WILD CARD8-110Cy FairJ R Velazquez
 
ALTERNATE 120-19In Our TimeM J Husbands
ALTERNATE 215-12ShisospicyL Saez
    
* EXACTA: 3,6,7,10 Box
* TRIFECTA: 3,6,7/3,6,7,10/2,3,6,7,9,10
 
COMMENTS: BACIO is absolutely the horse to beat. He will be tough to beat with the lead early. YELLOW CARD should make a fairly aggressive move out of the turn and jockey Flavien Pratt is good at timing them. COMANCHE BRAVE has back to back group one wins with jockey Billy Loughnane riding like today. CY FAIR draws a tough post but unquestionably has the talent to overcome it.
 
    
 
 RACE #6    $1,000,000 Stakes
 1 Mile ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 2:26 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $1M BC DIRT MILE GRADE I
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN2-11Further AdoF Prat
PLACE15-12T KraftJ Alvarado
SHOW7-27Bracket BusterJ R Velazquez
WILD CARD15-19Forged SteelE Gonzalez
 
ALTERNATE 18-14Chunk of GoldJ A Torres
ALTERNATE 215-16Lord FonsK Yokoyama
    
* EXACTA: 2/1,4,6,7,9 Key Box
* TRIFECTA: 1,2,7/1,2,7/1,2,4,6,7,9
 
COMMENTS: FURTHER ADO ran the highest last race speed figure with elite late pace. T KRAFT has the best combination of early speed and late pace in this race. BRACKET BUSTER should be involved from gate to wire and has some of his best published workouts between races. FORGED STEEL has plenty of early speed and could benefit from cutting back in distance today.
 
    
 
 RACE #7    $2,000,000 Stakes
 1 3/16 Miles ON THE Turf - POST TIME: 3:04 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $2M BC FILLY AND MARE TURF GRADE I
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN5-212Blue BoltC T Keane
PLACE5-15KathynmarissaJ L Ortiz
SHOW20-18JancisB Lee
WILD CARD7-211PreciseR L Moore
 
ALTERNATE 110-11Gimme a NotherJ R Velazquez
ALTERNATE 215-16Thought ProcessM Franco
    
* EXACTA: 12/1,5,8,11 Key Box
* TRIFECTA: 12/5,8,11/1,5,6,8,11
 
COMMENTS: BLUE BOLT is unquestionably the horse to beat and anything near morning line odds would be a gift. KATHYNMARISSA has won three of four starts with jockey Jose Ortiz in the irons and finished in the money twelve of thirteen on turf. JANCIS might have the most explosive late pace in the field and this race has the potential to have some hottish fractions. PRECISE might be the favorite here if not for BLUE BOLT.
 
    
 
 RACE #8    $2,000,000 Stakes
 6 Furlongs ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 3:42 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $2M BC SPRINT GRADE I
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN7-211T O ElvisR Sakai
PLACE4-513EnglishmanJ L Ortiz
SHOW20-13Liam SmithM Franco
WILD CARD30-110Roll On Big JoeJ R Leparoux
 
ALTERNATE 130-18Little ThunderJ R Velazquez
ALTERNATE 210-17BuiltL Saez
    
* EXACTA: 11,13/3,10,11,13
* TRIFECTA: 11,13/11,13/3,7,8,10
 
COMMENTS: Sometimes it is the tiny details and T O ELVIS worked two seconds faster than he did prior to his US debut. Japanese trainers are not known for pushing their horses. ENGLISHMAN might be the biggest post time favorite over the BC races. LIAM SMITH is one of three horses with a par level race on his resume. The other two are above. ROLL ON BIG JOE should be part of the race call from start to finish.
 
    
 
 RACE #9    $2,000,000 Stakes
 1 Mile ON THE Turf - POST TIME: 4:20 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $2M BC MILE GRADE I
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN8-11DeterministicK Carmouche
PLACE7-58Notable SpeechW Buick
SHOW8-19RhetoricalJ L Ortiz
WILD CARD15-16Zulu KingdomF Prat
 
ALTERNATE 120-15Ask IkigomiR Sakai
ALTERNATE 28-112True LoveW Lordan
    
* EXACTA: 1,8/1,5,6,8,9,12
* TRIFECTA: 1,8/1,8,9/1,5,6,8,9,12
 
COMMENTS: DETERMINISTIC should push forward in a race without a ton of speed. If the half mile fractions are close to fortyeight seconds they probably are not catching her. NOTABLE SPEECH got the best of the top pick when they met with the highest last race speed figure. RHETORICAL has run well versus many of these but behind the top two. ZULU KINGDOM has as much upside potential as any but will need to improve plenty today.
 
    
 
 RACE #10    $2,000,000 Stakes
 1 1/8 Miles ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 4:58 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $2M BC DISTAFF GRADE I
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN6-52NitrogenJ L Ortiz
PLACE8-54Fully SubscribedF Prat
SHOW15-15Scottish LassieL Saez
WILD CARD9-28SplendoraT Gaffalione
 
ALTERNATE 130-11ImmersiveJ Alvarado
ALTERNATE 220-13RegaledJ D Ramos
    
* EXACTA: 2,4,5,8 Box
* TRIFECTA: 2,4,5,8 Box
 
COMMENTS: NITROGEN should have zero problems clearing the one horse as jockey Jose Ortiz tries to control the tempo from start to finish. FULLY SUBSCRIBED has made easy work of all other horses in her last four starts except for NITROGEN but has the best total pace profile. SCOTTISH LASSIE hit the board in all four at the distance but will need her best today. SPLENDORA usually comes off the bench hot winning five of the last six starts following some rest.
 
    
 
 RACE #11    $5,000,000 Stakes
 1 1/2 Miles ON THE Turf - POST TIME: 5:36 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $5M BC TURF GRADE I
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN6-12Benvenuto CelliniR L Moore
PLACE3-112Diamond NecklaceC Soumillon
SHOW5-113Bay City RollerO Murphy
WILD CARD10-110TiffanyL Morris
 
ALTERNATE 115-13Minaret StationJ L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 28-16Burnham SquareB J Hernandez Jr.
    
* EXACTA: 2,10,12,13
* TRIFECTA: 2,12,13/2,10,12,13/2,3,610,12,13
 
COMMENTS: On paper this looks like a jockeys race and there is none better for that than Ryan Moore on BENVENUTO CELLINI in comfortable stalking position. DIAMOND NECKLACE has four group one wins but interesting Moore rides the other Aiden O Brien horse. BAY CITY ROLLER will have no problem with the distance with two wins and a trio of seconds in a handful of tries. TIFFANY ran the highest last race speed figure in her only US start and could be even better in round two.
 
    
 
 RACE #12    $7,000,000 Stakes
 1 1/4 Miles ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 6:16 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $7M BC CLASSIC GI
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN9-27KnightsbridgeL Saez
PLACE2-15Forever YoungR Sakai
SHOW5-22SovereigntyJ Alvarado
WILD CARD6-16MagnitudeF Prat
 
ALTERNATE 15-13Golden TempoJ L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 215-18Napoleon SoloJ R Velazquez
    
* EXACTA: 7/2,3,5,6 Key Box
* TRIFECTA: 2,5,7/2,5,7/2,3,5,6,7
 
COMMENTS: KNIGHTSBRIDGE has the most back class in the race and is very hard to beat when he gets off to a fast start as he should here. FOREVER YOUNG ran the highest last race speed figure and has a couple of maintenance workouts since. SOVEREIGNTY is unbeaten in three at the distance and none were particularly close. MAGNITUDE ran better early pace numbers despite stumbling at the start.

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