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Keeneland Select

Churchill Downs Derby Day FULLCARD Hotlist - May 6

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

Hot List Key:
 A:
A preferred horse to watch  B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

1st race – (1) Extra Anejo was considered a Kentucky Derby prospect until he was sidelined in the fall. Starts his 3-year-old season with a win here. (3) Federal Judge was an impressive debut winner at Oaklawn and should be the main rival. (5) Stud Lovin should thrive on dirt. (8) Deer District is usually in the picture at the end.

2nd race – (3) Harbor Bridge should find smooth sailing in his first try around two turns. (8) Quality Chic could be closing fast at the end. (1) Cape Trafalgar will be helped by a rail trip. (6) Quaternion showed some improvement last time.

3rd race - (1) Bright Future appears to have just that for Pletcher. (5) King Ottoman should be the key contender in this field. (3) Transect might rebound on a dry track. (13) Major Blue will enjoy some class relief here.

4th race – Derby City Distaff (G1) - (2) Goodnight Olive is the reigning division champ and looked as good as ever in 2023 debut, winning the Grade 1 Madison. (5) Matareya had a useful comeback race and should be on edge for this. (3) Wicked Halo belongs in the exotics.

5th race –Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (G2) - (5) Spenderella was brilliant last year and should pick up where she left off last time out in August. (2) Speak of the Devil won this race last year and merits respect. (4) Wakanaka will be dangerous in the final furlong. (7) Fluffy Socks has enough class to be a threat here.

6th race –Knicks Go Overnight Stakes - (6) Zozos looed good while winning at Fair Grounds and gets the nod here. (2) Masqueparade is classy and working smartly for his return to the races. (3) Baby Yoda can make his presence felt. (12) Caddo River has enough speed to contend in this field.

7th race – Twin Spires Turf Sprint (G2) - (10) Arrest Me Red got rolling too late last time and settled for third. Makes amends here. (4) Big Invasion should be charging into the picture in the stretch.(7) Nothing Better could be tough to catch. (13) Artemus Citylimits has the potential to stage an upset here.

8th race –Pat Day Mile (G2) - (9) General Jim can take command and handle this field. (7) Fort Bragg should be well-suited by a one-turn mile. (12) Gun Pilot could soar on a dry track. (3) Lugan Knight can be a contender off his best try.

9th race –American Turf Stakes (G2) - (11) Carl Spackler was a highly impressive maiden winner and has been pointed toward this race. (1) Major Dude couldn’t crack the Derby field but will be a major factor here. (2) Far Bridge is undefeated and cannot be ignored. (3) Mendelssohns March should fare better back on turf.

10th race –Churchill Downs Stakes (G1)  - (7) Cody’s Wish makes his 2023 debut and seems poised for another big year. (10) Endorsed is in fantastic form and looks like the main rival. (1) White Abarrio should work out a good trip from the rail. (6) Tejano Twist will benefit if the pace gets too hot.

11th race – Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic (G1) - (5) Up to the Mark was third in the Grade 1 Maker’s Mark at a mile and will enjoy the added distance. (7) Hong Kong Harry is a dangerous West Coast shipper. (9) Spooky Channel used his late kick to win a Fair Grounds stakes and will be a main factor here. (2) Master Piece can rebound with a better effort here.

12th race – The Kentucky Derby (G1) - (14) Angel of Empire has come into his own in his last two starts, winning the Arkansas Derby and Risen Star. It looks like he thrives on longer distances and in the end that could be the deciding factor. (15) Forte has done nothing but win in his last five starts. He’s a deserving favorite and the one to beat, but maybe today is the day when he encounters some trouble he can’t handle. (17) Derma Sotogake represents Japan, which has been dominate on the international scene. Dominant in the UAE Derby, he could be the one to give his country its first American classic win. (7) Reincarnate was a disappointing fourth in the Santa Anita Derby but merits attention based on a good effort during a troubled trip in the Rebel.

13th race – (1) Equivoque was an easy debut winner and should be able to handle this field in his first try against winners. (10) Shopper’s Revenge will find the going easier here after running in a stakes. (8) Classic Legacy has a nice turn of late speed and cannot be discounted. (6) Promise Me a Ride won his debut in a promising manner. 14th race – (2) Everso Mischievous battled fiercely and lost by a head in his debut. Gets that maiden win here. (9) Mullikinwas second in both starts and can complete the exacta here. (14) Dillinger could steal this one from the far outside post. (5) Golden Sombrero might shine in this field.