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Keeneland Select

Churchill Downs Derby Day Tip Sheet - May 4

Race #1

Dirt 6 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 10:30 AM ET

$120,000.00

Race 1 Maiden Special Weight
PICK ORDERM/LP #HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
WIN3-11Evan On EarthT Gaffalione
PLACE5-22Pure ForceF Geroux
SHOW6-15Lous LegacyA Jimenez
WILD CARD5-16House UnitedJ R Leparoux
ALTERNATE 17-27CulpritJ R Velazquez
ALTERNATE 25-13Top Gun RocketJ Alvarado

EXACTA 1-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX
TRIECTA 1/2/5 BOX, 2/5/6 BOX

Race #2

Dirt 1 Mile - Post Time: 11:01 AM ET

$134,000.00

Race 2 Allowance Optional Claiming
PICK ORDERM/LP #HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
WIN6-56ScyllaJ Castellano
PLACE8-14Steel RacerI Ortiz Jr.
SHOW10-13Joke SisiJ L Ortiz
WILD CARD12-12ZawishB J Hernandez Jr.
ALTERNATE 110-111VictoriousA Concepcion
ALTERNATE 215-15GuneshP Lopez

EXACTA 6-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX
TRIECTA 3/4/6 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX

Race #3

Dirt 1 1/16 Miles - Post Time: 11:31 AM ET

Best Bet #11 MINDFRAME

$127,000.00

Race 3 Allowance Optional Claiming
PICK ORDERM/LP #HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
WIN2-111MindframeI Ortiz Jr.
PLACE9-29InvigoratedL Saez
SHOW4-11CartuchoJ Castellano
WILD CARD5-12CornishmanF Geroux
ALTERNATE 115-16NullifyK J Asmussen
ALTERNATE 28-13Elephants EarB J Hernandez Jr.

EXACTA 11-9 BOX, 9-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX
TRIECTA 1/9/11 BOX, 1/2/9 BOX

Race #4

Dirt 1 Mile - Post Time: 12:04 PM ET

Best Commentary $200,000 KNICKS GO OVERNIGHT STAKES

$200,000.00

Race 4 Stakes
PICK ORDERM/LP #HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
WIN4-11Strong QualityF Geroux
PLACE5-26Best ActorF Prat
SHOW8-111Oscar EclipseJ L Ortiz
WILD CARD6-17KupunaM Murrill
ALTERNATE 18-18StravaI Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 26-12DeningtonB J Hernandez Jr.

EXACTA 1,6,7,11 BOX
TRIECTA 1,6,7/1,6,7/1,2,6,7,8,11

COMMENTS: 
STRONG QUALITY ran faster fractions last out and has a maintenance workout between starts. BEST ACTOR could be at his best in the third start after a layoff, which was the best of his last three race cycle. OSCAR ECLIPSE won three of five with a couple of seconds on a fast track. KUPUNA performed well at Churchill with three seconds and two seconds in six outings.

Race #5

Turf 5 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 12:36 PM ET

Best Commentary $600,000 TURF SPRINT STAKES GRADE II

$600,000.00

Race 5 Stakes
PICK ORDERM/LP #HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
WIN10-112Arrest Me RedJ L Ortiz
PLACE7-24MotoriousF Prat
SHOW5-110Big InvasionJ Rosario
WILD CARD4-18Mischief MagicL Dettori
ALTERNATE 18-114CogburnI Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 210-13CoppolaM Garcia

EXACTA 4,8,10,12 BOX
TRIECTA 4,10,12/4,8,10,12/2,4,8,10,14

COMMENTS: 
ARREST ME RED ran improved fractions and pace numbers through the first half mile last out and should have more late energy in the second up. MOTORIOUS is a highly consistent performer that has run well fresh off the bench like today. BIG INVASION ran here last year as one of the favorites but had to check. He has run some of his best races with Joel Rosario onboard. He rides today. MISCHIEF MAGICs trainer Charles Appleby wins stakes races at 40 percent.

Race #6

Dirt 7 Furlongs - Post Time: 01:14 PM ET

Best Commentary $1M DERBY CITY DISTAFF GRADE I

$1,000,000.00

Race 6 Stakes
PICK ORDERM/LP #HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
WIN3-110VahvaI Ortiz Jr.
PLACE5-27Alva StarrT Gaffalione
SHOW8-15Spirit WindJ L Ortiz
WILD CARD8-11Three WitchesF Prat
ALTERNATE 19-29Red Carpet ReadyL Saez
ALTERNATE 210-12Olivia DarlingJ R Velazquez

EXACTA 7,10/1,2,5,7,9,10
TRIECTA 7,10/1,5,7,10/1,2,5,7,9,10

COMMENTS: 
VAHVA makes her second start after a layoff with a bullet and go workout between races. ALVA STARR is coming off a Grade I win versus many of these and has a pair of solid works between races to stay sharp. SPIRIT WIND should be involved from start to finish and tends to run her best with some rest like today. THREE WITCHES should stalk or close and will have plenty of tiring speed to pass in the stretch.

Race #7

Turf 1 Mile - Post Time: 01:56 PM ET

Best Commentary $750,000 CHURCHILL DISTAFF TURF MILE GRADE II

$750,000.00

Race 7 Stakes
PICK ORDERM/LP #HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
WIN6-17Evvie JetsU Rispoli
PLACE5-111CoppiceL Dettori
SHOW6-18Heavenly SundayF Geroux
WILD CARD10-12WalkathonB J Hernandez Jr.
ALTERNATE 18-16DelahayeT Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 24-13Chili FlagI Ortiz Jr.

EXACTA 2,7,8,11 BOX
TRIECTA 7,8,11/7,8,11/2,3,6,7,8,11

COMMENTS: 
EVVIE JETS should be fit for her first race since October with more than 30 furlongs of workouts preparing. COPPICE has proven she can handle and beat top turf horses in England. HEAVENLY SUNDAY raced to a wire to wire win in her only Churchill grass go. She could compete for the front here but is not lead dependent. WALKATHON could benefit from cutting back a little in distance and won two of her three in Churchill turf.

Race #8

Dirt 1 Mile - Post Time: 02:46 PM ET

Best Commentary $600,000 PAT DAY MILE GRADE II

$600,000.00

Race 8 Stakes
PICK ORDERM/LP #HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
WIN3-112NashF Geroux
PLACE8-111VlahosE A Maldonado
SHOW10-17Who DeyB J Hernandez Jr.
WILD CARD5-28Top ConorJ L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 130-19Frosty IndulgenceA Beschizza
ALTERNATE 210-12BeelineI Ortiz Jr.

EXACTA 7,8,11,12 BOX
TRIECTA 7,11,12/11,12/7,8,9,11,12

COMMENTS: 
NASH ran a mile for the first time last out and won big. He was on the Derby trail but looks like he prefers one turn versus two. VLAHOS smoked a decent sized field at Santa Anita and one of the one he beat came back to win next out. WHO DEY should be involved early and has the most late pace in the race. TOP CONOR could have a ton of upside potential making just his third start for top trainer Chad Brown.

Race #9

Turf 1 1/16 Miles - Post Time: 03:40 PM ET

Best Commentary $600,000 AMERICAN TURF STAKES GRADE II

$600,000.00

Race 9 Stakes
PICK ORDERM/LP #HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
WIN5-114Agate RoadI Ortiz Jr.
PLACE7-25Legend of TimeL Dettori
SHOW10-110SetJ L Ortiz
WILD CARD10-112AbrumarP Lopez
ALTERNATE 115-11Twirling PointF Geroux
ALTERNATE 215-14Formidable ManL Saez

EXACTA 4,5/1,4,5,10,12,14
TRIECTA 4,5/4,5,10/1,4,5,10,12,14

COMMENTS: 
AGATE ROAD improved his early pace last out, which can be an indication of a horse coming into peak form. LEGEND OF TIME won three in a row at Meydan UAE and none of them were close. The competition is a question. SET has some of the best turf breeding for this group and is one of only two in here to hit a PAR speed number for this level. ABRUMAR can win from the front or back and Paco Lopez will ride aggressively. Versatility is useful in deep fields.

Race #10

Dirt 7 Furlongs - Post Time: 04:31 PM ET

Best Commentary $1M CHURCHILL DOWNS STAKES GRADE I

$1,000,000.00

Race 10 Stakes
PICK ORDERM/LP #HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
WIN6-14Mr. WirelessR Gutierrez
PLACE10-110Gun PilotC A Torres
SHOW7-211Hoist the GoldJ R Velazquez
WILD CARD4-12Tejano TwistI Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 110-13Bo CruzJ L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 23-16ZozosF Geroux

EXACTA 2,4,10,11 BOX
TRIECTA 4,10,11/4,10,11/2,3,6,4,10,11

COMMENTS:
MR WIRELESS ran much better internal pace numbers from start to finish in his last. GUN PILOT should sit right behind the leaders here and then use his late legs to sprint to the finish line. HOIST THE GOLD finished a well beaten second in this race last year. A bullet work on April 15th hints at a big effort here. TEJANO TWIST has explosive late pace and could benefit from going a furlong longer today.

Race #11

Turf 1 1/8 Miles - Post Time: 05:27 PM ET

Best Commentary $1M TURF CLASSIC STAKES GRADE I

$1,000,000.00

Race 11 Stakes
PICK ORDERM/LP #HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
WIN9-25Program TradingF Prat
PLACE7-211Naval PowerL Dettori
SHOW10-17WebslingerJ Castellano
WILD CARD4-16Im Very BusyI Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 18-14Far BridgeJ L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 25-11IntegrationT Gaffalione

EXACTA 5,11/1,4,5,6,7,11
TRIECTA 5,11/5,7,11/1,4,5,6,7,11

COMMENTS: 
PROGRAM TRADING can win from anywhere on the track, front, middle or back. That versatility comes in handy in big fields. NAVAL POWER is undefeated in a pair at the distance and a winner of six of eight overall. WEBSLINGER finished within a head and neck of the top twice. If you like one you have to like the other. IM VERY BUSY is the only horse in the race to pop triple digit speed figures in his last two races

.Race #12

Dirt 1 1/4 Miles - Post Time: 06:57 PM ET

Best Commentary $5M KENTUCKY DERBY GRADE I

$5,000,000.00

Race 12 Stakes
PICK ORDERM/LP #HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
WIN5-217FiercenessJ R Velazquez
PLACE20-118StrongholdA Fresu
SHOW10-111Forever YoungR Sakai
WILD CARD3-12Sierra LeoneT Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 18-14Catching FreedomF Prat
ALTERNATE 220-119ResilienceJ Alvarado

EXACTA 2,11,17,18 BOX
TRIECTA 11,17,18/2,11,17,18/2,4,11,17,18

COMMENTS: 
FIERCENESS has three races that would be good enough to wear The Roses. He has blistering late speed and just needs to stay close early. STRONGHOLD should not have any issue handling the distance or two turns. He ran faster despite going his longest last out. FOREVER YOUNG passed the eye test and looked impressive winning the Dubai World Cup. SIERRA LEONE has not had a good trip around the track yet and is still winning. What would a clean trip look like?

Race #13

Dirt 7 Furlongs - Post Time: 08:00 PM ET

Best Bet #7 JEFFERSON STREET

$127,000.00

Race 13 Allowance Optional Claiming
PICK ORDERM/LP #HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
WIN7-27Jefferson StreetJ Alvarado
PLACE2-19General PartnerT Gaffalione
SHOW5-22Discreet MischiefF Geroux
WILD CARD30-115Sir GreylindR Gutierrez
ALTERNATE 115-114Yellow CardF Prat
ALTERNATE 212-113PirateI Ortiz Jr.

EXACTA 7-9 BOX, 9-2 BOX, 2-15 BOX
TRIECTA 2/7/9 BOX, 2/9/15 BOX

Race #14

Dirt 1 Mile - Post Time: 08:35 PM ET

Best Bet #1 DIVE BOMBER

$120,000.00

Race 14 Maiden Special Weight
PICK ORDERM/LP #HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
WIN9-51Dive BomberF Geroux
PLACE7-23Gun PartyJ Rosario
SHOW5-16Banned for LifeL Saez
WILD CARD6-112TimeoutF Prat
ALTERNATE 110-18Doro UnbridledJ L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 215-110Military CruiserI Ortiz Jr.

EXACTA 1-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX, 6-12 BOX
TRIECTA 1/3/6 BOX, 3/6/12 BOX

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