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Keeneland Select

Churchill Downs Hotlist - May 4

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

Hot List Key:

A : A preferred horse to watch                   B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

3rd race – (3) Caramel Chip (C) dropped from even money to 3-5 and won easily. Should make it three wins in a row here. (8) Concrete Glory looks like the one to catch in the stretch. (7) Sand Mountain cannot be overlooked here. (1) Tetsu could be a factor in the final furlong. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-7-8. Doubles: 1-3-7-8 with 1-2-5.

4th race – (1) Hibernacle (A) won easily in her debut and looks best here. (2) Youalmosthadme looks like the main rival after an impressive win. (5) Tranche might improve in her second start. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-5.

8th race – (2) Fight Fiercely (B) turned in a good effort while racing wide against a bias. Gets the nod here. (3) Morning Cup drops into a claimer and should be the main foe. (10) Group Hug could put the squeeze on his rivals. (4) Rocking Rocket will be effective at this level. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-3-4-10. Doubles: 2-3-4-10 with 1-2-6-7. Pick 3: 2-3-4-10 with 1-2-6-7 with 3-5-7-10.

9th race – (7) Bango is in razor sharp form and deserves top billing. (1) Bagboss makes his 2023 debut and cannot be ignored. (2) Miles Ahead should work out an effective stalking trip here. (6) Surveillance could make matters interesting in the final yards. Betting strategy: 7 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-6-7. Doubles: 1-2-6-7 with 3-5-7-10.

10th race – (3) Annapolis is a Grade 1 winner who should open 2023 on a winning note. (7) Churchtown has keen early speed and could control the pace. (5) Set Piece has enough late kick to be a main factor. (10) English Bee will be a factor on his best try. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-5-7-10.

No.Letter/Last raceToday’s race  Comment     
(3)Caramel ChipC, 4/123 CDWon easily last time     
(1)HibernacleA, 4/124 CDImpressive debut winner     
(2)Fight FiercelyB, 4/128 CDBucked a bias last time out