Keeneland Select

Churchill Downs Hotlist - November 15

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

Hot List Key:

A : A preferred horse to watch                   B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

1st race – (8)  Valley of Kings was second in his last 2 starts on an all-weather track and seems bred for dirt as well. (3) Project Ace missed by a nose and is the one to fear. (1) Happy Prince is a threat from the rail. (6) Tazzy could sneak into the picture. Betting strategy: 8 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-6-8.

3rd race – (2) Shred the Gnar has been away since a huge allowance win in May. Looks best if fit enough. (7) Ragtime will be flying at the end and is the main threat. (6) One Magic Philly will be dangerous on her best try. (1) Impel should be well-suited by the distance. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-6-7.

6th race – (6) Curlin’s Malibu is in good form and looks best in this field. (7) Freedom Road should be battling throughout. (2) El Perfecto fits perfectly here. (3) Money Run may improve on a dry track. Betting strategy: 6  to win, place. Exacta box: 2-3-6-7.

8th race – (4) Frosty View looked impressive in his last win and gets the nod here. (11) Bad Beat Brien usually finds a way to take home a piece of the purse. (5) Final Verdict cannot be ignored in this field. (1) Speed Figures may not be caught from the rail. Betting strategy: 4 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-4-5-11.

10th race – (12) Navajo Warrior has a tough post but is in great form and looks best. (2) Cadet Corps cannot be ignored here. (7) Double Your Money just might do that for his backers. (13) Point Dume has a bad post but could have enough speed to overcome it. Betting strategy: 12 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-7-12-13.