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Keeneland Select

Churchill Downs Tip Sheet - May 1

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 68% of the time at this track.
 
 RACE #1    $120,000 Maiden Special Weight
 1 1/16 Miles ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 12:30 PM ET
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN4-51Phantom BlueT Gaffalione
PLACE4-17EpisistJ L Ortiz
SHOW15-12Butterfly JasmineB J Hernandez Jr.
WILD CARD20-14HaywiniiL Machado
 
ALTERNATE 18-15MassF Prat
ALTERNATE 212-13Sister JeanJ A Torres
    
* EXACTA: 1-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/7 BOX, 2/4/7 BOX
    
 
 RACE #2    $134,000 Allowance Optional Claiming
 1 Mile ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 1:00 PM ET
 
BEST BET:  #9 FIVE A SIDE
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN3-19Five a SideF Prat
PLACE6-15Quantum BurstJ L Ortiz
SHOW9-23ChopsticksI Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD6-11Amalfi DriveB J Hernandez Jr.
 
ALTERNATE 17-27Sudden SwitchJ A Torres
ALTERNATE 28-16Annas PromiseJ Alvarado
    
* EXACTA: 9-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/9 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX
    
 
 RACE #3    $127,000 Allowance Optional Claiming
 1 1/16 Miles ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 1:30 PM ET
 
BEST BET:  #10 STAR ACTRESS
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN4-110Star ActressJ Alvarado
PLACE6-15Joyful JusticeJ Castellano
SHOW5-19LeinaniT Gaffalione
WILD CARD9-27Bettys PearlM Gutierrez
 
ALTERNATE 120-111Feisty Red HeadM E Smith
ALTERNATE 215-13Krissys StarF Prat
    
* EXACTA: 10-5 BOX, 5-9 BOX, 9-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/9/10 BOX, 5/7/9 BOX
    
 
 RACE #4    $120,000 Maiden Special Weight
 7 Furlongs ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 2:00 PM ET
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN12-18Serenas SurpriseV R Carrasco
PLACE10-13Battis GroveJ R Velazquez
SHOW6-14CoupletJ J Hernandez
WILD CARD9-211Tammys KissT Gaffalione
 
ALTERNATE 17-21Hedge BookF Prat
ALTERNATE 220-12Power to GloryF De La Cruz
    
* EXACTA: 8-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX, 4-11 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/8 BOX, 3/4/11 BOX
    
 
 RACE #5    $120,000 Maiden Special Weight
 1 Mile ON THE Turf - POST TIME: 2:35 PM ET
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN8-14Powell RiverR Maragh
PLACE15-19Cash BonusB J Hernandez Jr.
SHOW10-15FlickA Concepcion
WILD CARD3-110PreppedJ L Ortiz
 
ALTERNATE 14-16ExecutiveJ Alvarado
ALTERNATE 28-11BridgesongT Gaffalione
    
* EXACTA: 4-9 BOX, 9-5 BOX, 5-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/9 BOX, 5/9/10 BOX
    
 
 RACE #6    $127,000 Allowance Optional Claiming
 6 1/2 Furlongs ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 3:12 PM ET
 
BEST BET:  #5 PAIGE TURNER
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN4-15Paige TurnerJ L Ortiz
PLACE8-13NimahJ J Hernandez
SHOW30-115Dont Do It LucyL Saez
WILD CARD6-11Where Luck LivesJ Rosario
 
ALTERNATE 120-113Blue Flame SixA Achard
ALTERNATE 23-16Carmel CoastT Gaffalione
    
* EXACTA: 5-3 BOX, 3-15 BOX, 15-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/15 BOX, 1/3/15 BOX
    
 
 RACE #7    $500,000 Stakes
 5 1/2 Furlongs ON THE Turf - POST TIME: 3:48 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $500,000 UNBRIDLED SIDNEY STAKES GRADE II
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN9-56ShisospicyI Ortiz Jr.
PLACE6-17Haulin IceF Arrieta
SHOW20-14Creeds GoldF Prat
WILD CARD7-25Queen MaximaJ J Hernandez
 
ALTERNATE 16-19Shoot It TrueJ Rosario
ALTERNATE 220-11Mae TownF Geroux
    
* EXACTA: 6/1,4,5,7,9 KEY BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/4,5,7/1,4,5,7,9
 
COMMENTS: SHISOSPICY ran the highest last race speed figure a full 8 points more than the next. HAULIN ICE has triple digit speed figure ability. CREEDS GOLD has nine quality starts in the last 10 races and usually makes one big mid move. QUEEN MAXIMAs resume says she will likely improve in her second start off the sidelines.
 
    
 
 RACE #8    $700,000 Stakes
 7 Furlongs ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 4:30 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $700,000 EIGHT BELLES STAKES GRADE II
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN5-29On Time GirlI Ortiz Jr.
PLACE4-13River WindT Gaffalione
SHOW3-18GoodallF Prat
WILD CARD8-16Sippin PrettyB J Hernandez Jr.
 
ALTERNATE 16-12French FrictionC A Torres
ALTERNATE 26-17Luv Your NeighborL Saez
    
* EXACTA: 3,8,9/2,3,6,8,9
* TRIFECTA: 3,8,9/2,3,6,8,9/2,3,6,8,9
 
COMMENTS: ON TIME GIRL should sit right off what could be a hot pace and try to run by them late. RIVER WIND popped in her debut and then got off to a slow start in her second race. A good start and she could be hard to beat. GOODALL ran the highest last race speed figure by 4 points. SIPPIN PRETTY has the best combination of early and late speed according to Smart Sheets.
 
    
 
 RACE #9    $750,000 Stakes
 1 1/16 Miles ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 5:12 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $750,000 ALYSHEBA STAKES GRADE II
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN8-13GrandeJ R Velazquez
PLACE7-27SkippylongstockingT Gaffalione
SHOW5-22BaezaJ Alvarado
WILD CARD8-16Nu Whats NewL Saez
 
ALTERNATE 110-18Corporate PowerJ L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 220-11Navajo WarriorF Arrieta
    
* EXACTA: 2,3,7/2,3,6,7,8
* TRIFECTA: 2,3,6,7,8/2,3,7/1,2,3,6,7,8
 
COMMENTS: GEZORA is unquestionably the class of the field. The question is the six month layoff. KATHYNMARISSA could get out on the lead with modest fractions and stay there. WHISKEY DECISION has more than a length total pace advantage against these. ADRASTEIA is a horse for the course sort of she won two of seven with just one of 13 anywhere else.
 
    
 
 RACE #10    $500,000 Stakes
 1 1/8 Miles ON THE Turf - POST TIME: 6:01 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $500,000 MODESTY STAKES GRADE III
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN4-56GezoraF Prat
PLACE8-15KathynmarissaJ L Ortiz
SHOW4-13Whiskey DecisionI Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD30-19AdrasteiaK Kimura
 
ALTERNATE 16-12Proctor StreetT Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 220-17Dona ClotaJ R Velazquez
    
* EXACTA: 3,5,6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/3,5/2,3,5,7,9
 
COMMENTS: GEZORA is unquestionably the class of the field. The question is the sim month layoff. KATHYNMARISSA could get out on the lead with modest fractions and stay there. WHISKEY DECISION has more than a length total pace advantage against these. ADRASTEIA is a horse for the course, sort of, she won two of seven with just one of 13 anywhere else.
 
    
 
 RACE #11    $1,000,000 Stakes
 1 1/16 Miles ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 6:56 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $1M LA TROIENNE STAKES GRADE I
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN7-29Fully SubscribedF Prat
PLACE3-15Shred the GnarL Saez
SHOW9-21Bless the BrokenI Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD15-14Miss JustifyT Gaffalione
 
ALTERNATE 18-12ScalableJ R Velazquez
ALTERNATE 212-18Dry PowderD Davis
    
* EXACTA: 1,5,9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1,5,9/1,4,5,9/1,2,4,5,9
 
COMMENTS: FULLY SUBSCRIBED is a little racing luck away from being undefeated in five race. She wins big when she wins. SHRED THE GNAR run well after some time on the sidelines, like today. Expert her to go forward and try to stay there. BLESS THE BROKEN ran competitively in a Grade I last out and has some excellent works prepping. MISS JUSTIFY is undefeated in a pair at Churchill.
 
    
 
 RACE #12    $600,000 Stakes
 1 1/16 Miles ON THE Turf - POST TIME: 7:40 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $600,000 EDGEWOOD STAKES GRADE II
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN8-15Just AloofF Prat
PLACE4-13ImaginationtheladyT Gaffalione
SHOW15-113Indigo WoodsA Concepcion
WILD CARD15-17Lovely GreyD Davis
 
ALTERNATE 115-14Lorelei LeeF De La Cruz
ALTERNATE 28-18Lion LakeJ R Velazquez
    
* EXACTA: 3,5,7,13 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3,5,7,13/3,5/3,4,5,7,8,13
 
COMMENTS: JUST ALOOF has strong turf breeding and should be well positioned versus these. IMAGINATIONTHELADY increased her speed figure in the last three and her resumes points to a pop in the second up. INDIGO WOODS could have the most upside in just her third race. LOVELY GREY showed electric late pace in her last three races and that should come in handy here.
 
    
 
 RACE #13    $1,500,000 Stakes
 1 1/8 Miles ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 8:40 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $1.5M KENTUCKY OAKS GRADE I
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN4-12ZanyI Ortiz Jr.
PLACE6-11ExploraF Prat
SHOW10-19Always a RunnerJ L Ortiz
WILD CARD8-14Counting StarsF Arrieta
 
ALTERNATE 18-110Prom QueenJ Castellano
ALTERNATE 26-111Percys BarL Machado
    
* EXACTA: 1,2/1,2,4,9,10,11
* TRIFECTA: 1,2/1,2,4,9/1,2,4,9,10,11
 
COMMENTS: ZANYs past performances suggest a major pop in the second start after a layoff. EXPLORA should be on the gas all the way around the track and has an excellent Churchill work. ALWAYS A RUNNER might have the most upside making just her third start for Chad Brown. COUNTING STARS ran faster by more than a second on her las and has a pair of maintenance works since.
 

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