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Keeneland Select

Churchill Downs Tip Sheet - May 2

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 68% of the time at this track.

RACE #1    $120,000 Maiden Special Weight
 1 1/16 Miles ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 11:00 AM ET
 
BEST BET:  #8 BOURBON DREAM
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN5-18Bourbon DreamM Gutierrez
PLACE9-29Winston AveJ J Hernandez
SHOW4-13Silent WayF Prat
WILD CARD3-111PowershiftI Ortiz Jr.
 
ALTERNATE 16-16CromwellJ L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 215-110Midnight PlayboyJ Alvarado
    
* EXACTA: 8-9 BOX, 9-3 BOX, 3-11 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/8/9 BOX, 3/9/11 BOX
    
 
 RACE #2    $127,000 Allowance Optional Claiming
 1 1/16 Miles ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 11:32 AM ET
 
BEST BET:  #8 TAPTASTIC
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN3-18TaptasticI Ortiz Jr.
PLACE6-19Our MoneymanA Concepcion
SHOW10-111Lincolns LawT Gaffalione
WILD CARD8-16Make My DayL Saez
 
ALTERNATE 18-12Sovereign LawM Franco
ALTERNATE 29-24MemoryF Prat
    
* EXACTA: 8-9 BOX, 9-11 BOX, 11-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 8/9/11 BOX, 6/9/11 BOX
    
 
 RACE #3    $134,000 Allowance Optional Claiming
 1 Mile ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 12:05 PM ET
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN6-15John HancockI Ortiz Jr.
PLACE30-111AlemanD Sheehy
SHOW9-26Who DeyB J Hernandez Jr.
WILD CARD6-110VibeL Saez
 
ALTERNATE 18-19KeewaydinJ A Torres
ALTERNATE 215-14ComportJ L Ortiz
    
* EXACTA: 5-11 BOX, 11-6 BOX, 6-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/6/11 BOX, 6/10/11 BOX
    
 
 RACE #4    $1,000,000 Stakes
 7 Furlongs ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 12:38 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $1M DERBY CITY DISTAFF STAKES GRADE I
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN2-15SplendoraF Prat
PLACE8-54Ways and MeansJ L Ortiz
SHOW9-21UshaJ J Hernandez
WILD CARD6-16R DisasterT Gaffalione
 
ALTERNATE 14-12Haulin IceF Arrieta
ALTERNATE 220-13Autumn EveningI Ortiz Jr.
    
* EXACTA: 1,4,5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4,5/1,4,5/ALL
 
COMMENTS: Jockeys playing musical chairs is part of the story of this race. Juan Hernandez and Flavien Prat likely had a choice as to which horse they would ride. Prat goes on SPLENDORA and gets off WAYS AND MEANS. Meanwhile, Hernandez gets off SPLENDORA to stay on USHA. It will be interesting to see which made the right choice. R DISASTER is a steady performer that will head to the front and keeps jockey Tyler Gaffalione.
 
    
 
 RACE #5    $600,000 Stakes
 5 1/2 Furlongs ON THE Turf - POST TIME: 1:12 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $600,000 TURF SPRINT GRADE II
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN3-19LitigationI Ortiz Jr.
PLACE5-23My Boy PrinceJ L Ortiz
SHOW9-27Yellow CardF Prat
WILD CARD6-110Joe ShiestyF De La Cruz
 
ALTERNATE 110-15PossiblementeM Franco
ALTERNATE 215-11WendelssohnB J Hernandez Jr.
    
* EXACTA: 3,7,9,10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3,7,9,10 BOX
 
COMMENTS: LITIGATION won five of eight at the distance that should make a big mid move. MY BOY PRINCE ran the highest last race speed figure and could build on it in the second up. YELLOW CARD is a consistent performer with some of the most back class in the field. JOE SHIESTY is the only horse in the field to improve his pace and fractions last out.
 
    
 
 RACE #6    $200,000 Stakes
 1 Mile ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 1:53 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $200,000 KNICKS GO OVERNIGHT STAKES
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN3-12Dragoon GuardI Ortiz Jr.
PLACE7-24Be YouJ R Velazquez
SHOW5-110Capital IdeaJ Alvarado
WILD CARD4-16Tour PlayerF Prat
 
ALTERNATE 120-13Banjo ChrisE Morales
ALTERNATE 28-17Will Take ItB J Hernandez Jr.
    
* EXACTA: 2,4,6,10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2,4,6,10 BOX
 
COMMENTS: DRAGOON GUARD finished in the money in eleven of twelve races and is prepping for another strong effort. BE YOU tied for the highest last race speed figure and drops from a Grade II Stakes. CAPITAL IDEA won his only run around the Churchill Downs track and could benefit from cutting back in distance. TOUR PLAYER made it look easy in his last running a career best with Flavien Prat riding for the first time and stays for this one too.
 
    
 
 RACE #7    $1,000,000 Stakes
 1 Mile ON THE Turf - POST TIME: 2:38 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $1M CHURCHILL DISTAFF TURF MILE STAKES GRADE II
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN5-22Sweet RebeccaT Gaffalione
PLACE12-17Movin On UpJ L Ortiz
SHOW7-28Pin Up BettyJ J Hernandez
WILD CARD4-13Portfolio DurationF Prat
 
ALTERNATE 18-19Maggie GoI Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 28-14TemptableJ Alvarado
    
* EXACTA: 2,3,7,8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2,7,8/2,3,7,8/2,3,4,7,8,9
 
COMMENTS: SWEET REBECCA should be well positioned versus this field and should have every chance to make it three wins in a row. MOVIN ON UP showed better pace from start to finish in her last and has a maintenance workout since. PIN UP BETTY usually improves in her second start after a layoff and is as consistent as they come. PORTFOLIO DURATION has the top turf breeding and is a head from being undefeated in three.
 
    
 
 RACE #8    $750,000 Stakes
 1 Mile ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 3:23 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $750,000 PAT DAY MILE STAKES GRADE II
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN3-11EnglishmanJ L Ortiz
PLACE5-26Crude VelocityF Geroux
SHOW20-19LockstocknpharoahE Morales
WILD CARD15-111One More FreudJ J Hernandez
 
ALTERNATE 15-12Trouble CallingL Saez
ALTERNATE 28-18Creole ChromeI Ortiz Jr.
    
* EXACTA: 1/2,6,8,9,11 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1,6/1,6,9,11/1,2,6,9,11
 
COMMENTS: ENGLISHMAN won his debut at Churchill Downs and has some excellent works prepping. CRUDE VELOCITY ran faster by more than a second in his last and arrives from Santa Anita for trainer Bob Baffert. LOCKSTOCKNPHAROAH ran some faster fractions in his last and has a pair of quick Churchill works. ONE MORE FREUD was the heavy favorite in both of his races and could have some unseen pop in his third career start.
 
    
 
 RACE #9    $1,000,000 Stakes
 1 1/16 Miles ON THE Turf - POST TIME: 4:06 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $1M AMERICAN TURF STAKES GRADE I
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN4-14Stark ContrastF Prat
PLACE8-17AlpylandJ Castellano
SHOW9-212Remember MambaJ L Ortiz
WILD CARD8-114Final ScoreI Ortiz Jr.
 
ALTERNATE 16-18Greenwich VillageJ J Hernandez
ALTERNATE 230-13Blinging It BackA Concepcion
    
* EXACTA: 4,7,12/3,4,7,8,12,14
* TRIFECTA: 4,7,12/4,7,12/3,4,7,8,12,14
 
COMMENTS: STARK CONTRAST ran the highest last race speed figure and improved a lot in his only other second start after a layout. ALPYLAND was a little better from the middle out in his last and has some solid turf works since. REMEMBER MAMBA was better from start to finish in his last. FINAL SCORE is coming off a pair of graded stakes wins but has been off since early October. He has more than enough works to return fit and ready.
 
    
 
 RACE #10    $1,000,000 Stakes
 7 Furlongs ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 4:50 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $1M CHUCHILL DOWNS STAKES GRADE I
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN9-56KnightsbridgeJ Alvarado
PLACE6-17ImaginationF Prat
SHOW15-111Point DumeE Gonzalez
WILD CARD7-22CornucopianJ J Hernandez
 
ALTERNATE 16-11Disco TimeJ R Velazquez
ALTERNATE 220-14Hall of FameJ L Ortiz
    
* EXACTA: 6/1,2,4,7,11 KEY BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6,7/2,6,7,11/1,2,4,6,7,11
 
COMMENTS: KNIGHTSBRIDGE wins by unreal margins when he wins including by 10 lengths taking his debut at Churchill. IMAGINATION has the best combination of early and late speed and be right off the leaders early. POINT DUME could be out on the lead and does his best when pulling the cart. CORNUCOPIAN showed a new level of late pop in his last and has some robust workouts since to stay sharp.
 
    
 
 RACE #11    $1,500,000 Stakes
 1 1/8 Miles ON THE Turf - POST TIME: 5:39 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $1.5M TURF CLASSIC STAKES GRADE
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN5-26RhetoricalI Ortiz Jr.
PLACE7-29Test ScoreM Franco
SHOW15-11CorruptionJ R Velazquez
WILD CARD10-17Gold PhoenixH I Berrios
 
ALTERNATE 14-14Program TradingT Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 26-110Make Me KingJ L Ortiz
    
* EXACTA: 1,6,7,9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1,6,9/1,4,6,7,9/1,6,4,6,9,10
 
COMMENTS: RHETORICAL should be involved from the start and has enough late energy to close it out. TEST SCORE will be coming at the end and was runner up in the American Turf last year. CORRUPTION ran the highest last race speed figure and should be at least as good in the second off the sidelines. GOLD PHOENIX might be the best value play in the race with the best chance to run a race on par or better for this level, according to Smart Sheets.
 
    
 
 RACE #12    $5,000,000 Stakes
 1 1/4 Miles ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 6:57 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $5M KENTUCKY DERBY GRADE I
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN15-115Emerging MarketF Prat
PLACE6-16CommandmentL Saez
SHOW4-11RenegadeI Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD20-111IncrediboltJ A Torres
 
ALTERNATE 18-112Chief WallabeeJ Alvarado
ALTERNATE 220-17Danon BourbonA Nishimura
    
* EXACTA: 1,6,11,15 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1,6,11,15/1,6,15/1,6,7,11,12,15
 
COMMENTS: Of all the top jockeys, Flavien Prat has the highest winning percentage during the last 18 months. He stays on EMERGING MARKET instead of COMMANDMENT who will be one of the favorites to win. RENEGADE completely mauled the Arkansas Derby field and makes two starts in a row for the first time, boom or bust. INCREDIBOLT has the fastest US based final 3 furlong time in the field and is a horse for the course at a price.
 
    
 
 RACE #13    $127,000 Allowance Optional Claiming
 6 1/2 Furlongs ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 8:00 PM ET
 
BEST BET:  #8 GILDED BANDIT
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN3-18Gilded BanditJ Alvarado
PLACE9-211Noble AffairJ L Ortiz
SHOW5-210BuetaneI Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD8-11Small TownF Prat
 
ALTERNATE 18-15HulkamaniaT Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 215-16Cruisin ChuckE Morales
    
* EXACTA: 8-11 BOX, 11-10 BOX, 10-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 8/10/11 BOX, 1/10/11 BOX
    
 
 RACE #14    $120,000 Maiden Special Weight
 7 Furlongs ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 8:33 PM ET
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN9-28Find No FaultT Gaffalione
PLACE8-19Big JakeF Prat
SHOW8-114Brave PilotJ J Hernandez
WILD CARD8-15Dons WinnerJ L Ortiz
 
ALTERNATE 115-14Sleeping WarriorG Corrales
ALTERNATE 212-111Great MomentE Morales
    
* EXACTA: 8-9 BOX, 9-14 BOX, 14-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 8/9/14 BOX, 5/9/14 BOX

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