Keeneland Select

Churchill Downs Tip Sheet - May 30

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 68% of the time at this track.
 
 RACE #1    $120,000 Maiden Special Weight
 6 1/2 Furlongs ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 12:45 PM ET
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN4-52Battis GroveF Prat
PLACE3-17Belle AmourJ L Ortiz
SHOW8-11ZengrayaA Beschizza
WILD CARD12-16Cue Pixie DustR Bejarano
 
ALTERNATE 120-13Butterfly JasmineB J Hernandez Jr.
ALTERNATE 220-15Island BarbieD Sheehy
    
* EXACTA: 2-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/7 BOX, 1/6/7 BOX
    
 
 RACE #2    $86,000 Claiming
 1 Mile ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 1:15 PM ET
 
BEST BET:  #3 RUN CLASSIC
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN5-23Run ClassicR Bejarano
PLACE7-28SkyroJ L Ortiz
SHOW8-11Tuskegee AirmenI Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD9-24Badge of WarG Saez
 
ALTERNATE 15-15Oscar EclipseF Arrieta
ALTERNATE 26-12AttacheT Gaffalione
    
* EXACTA: 3-8 BOX, 8-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/8 BOX, 1/4/8 BOX
    
 
 RACE #3    $120,000 Maiden Special Weight
 1 1/8 Miles ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 1:44 PM ET
 
BEST BET:  #7 BRAVE PILOT
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN8-17Brave PilotJ R Velazquez
PLACE8-53Silent WayF Prat
SHOW5-25Direct StrikeI Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD9-29Bourbon DreamJ L Ortiz
 
ALTERNATE 16-11Victory CorpsE Esquivel
ALTERNATE 212-110Oso de OroT Gaffalione
    
* EXACTA: 7-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX, 5-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/7 BOX, 3/5/9 BOX
    
 
 RACE #4    $127,000 Allowance Optional Claiming
 1 Mile ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 2:15 PM ET
 
BEST BET:  #12 MASHALLAH
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN2-112MashallahT Gaffalione
PLACE9-211La RascasseA Concepcion
SHOW6-110PasserineI Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD20-15Smell the LiliesK J Asmussen
 
ALTERNATE 16-13Bettys PearlM Gutierrez
ALTERNATE 212-12Scots LawJ R Velazquez
    
* EXACTA: 12-11 BOX, 11-10 BOX, 10-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 10/11/12 BOX, 5/10/11 BOX
    
 
 RACE #5    $275,000 Stakes
 1 1/8 Miles ON THE Turf - POST TIME: 2:47 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $275,000 AUDUBON STAKES
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN2-17Touch of FireI Ortiz Jr.
PLACE6-11My Favorite BirdJ L Ortiz
SHOW8-14TiernanogueT Gaffalione
WILD CARD10-15KravitzJ R Velazquez
 
ALTERNATE 17-26ZeppelinF Prat
ALTERNATE 29-28ThousandsticksL Saez
    
* EXACTA: 7-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/7 BOX, 1/4/5 BOX
 
COMMENTS: TOUCH OF FIRE has been consistent to start his career and has strong turf pedigree. MY FAVORITE BIRD has solid late pace and should be in the mix early too. TIERNANOGUE ran the highest last race speed figure with an elite late pace number. KRAVITZ upped his speed figure in the last three and should continue the trend in the second up.
 
    
 
 RACE #6    $300,000 Stakes
 1 1/16 Miles ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 3:19 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $300,000 SHAWNEE STAKES GRADE II
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN6-55SplendoraF Prat
PLACE7-27ImmersiveI Ortiz Jr.
SHOW3-14Majestic OopsF Arrieta
WILD CARD12-13Miss JustifyT Gaffalione
 
ALTERNATE 115-16Too Much KikiJ L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 26-11Gin GinL Saez
    
* EXACTA: 5-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/7 BOX, 3/4/7 BOX
 
COMMENTS: SPLENDORA has some of the most back class and will look to bounce back in the second start off the sidelines. IMMERSIVE has three wins and a second by a neck in four at the distance. MAJESTIC OOPS is probably the most consistent high end performer in the race. MISS JUSTIFY is an all or nothing type with five wins and a third in ten starts.
 
    
 
 RACE #7    $275,000 Stakes
 1 1/16 Miles ON THE Turf - POST TIME: 3:53 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $275,000 MINT JULEP STAKES GRADE III
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN5-24MedoroJ L Ortiz
PLACE3-15Proctor StreetT Gaffalione
SHOW6-18Sweet TreasureI Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD12-11Charlenes DreamF Geroux
 
ALTERNATE 17-23Pin Up BettyF Prat
ALTERNATE 210-17In the StarsL Saez
    
* EXACTA: 4-5 BOX, 5-8 BOX, 8-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/8 BOX, 1/5/8 BOX
 
COMMENTS: MEDORO has eight quality starts in the last ten races. PROCTOR STREET won four of six at the distance and one of five at any other. SWEET TREASURE ran the highest last race speed figure and has a series of solid works since. CHARLENES DREAM has the most back class and will head to the front with the intent to stay there.
 
    
 
 RACE #8    $275,000 Stakes
 6 Furlongs ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 4:25 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $275,000 ARISTIDES STAKES GRADE III
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN9-53Roll On Big JoeJ R Leparoux
PLACE5-22CornucopianF Prat
SHOW7-21Mad HouseP Lopez
WILD CARD9-26Madaket RoadI Ortiz Jr.
 
ALTERNATE 115-17Gold SweepJ L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 212-15Tejano TwistF Arrieta
    
* EXACTA: 3-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/3 BOX, 1/2/6 BOX
 
COMMENTS: ROLL ON BIG JOE won three of four races at Churchill. CORNUCOPIAN drops from a Grade I back to a level where he won with ease two back. MAD HOUSE is a horse for the distance with five wins in seven tries and just one in a handful of others. MADAKET ROAD is undefeated in a pair at the distance including his last at Churchill.
 
    
 
 RACE #9    $275,000 Stakes
 1 1/8 Miles ON THE Turf - POST TIME: 4:56 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $275,000 REGRET STAKES GRADE III
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN5-29Tam TamJ Alvarado
PLACE3-18Storms WakeL Saez
SHOW4-11Indigo WoodsT Gaffalione
WILD CARD6-16DandonaI Ortiz Jr.
 
ALTERNATE 18-15Faithful DepartedJ L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 210-17Call On MeA Concepcion
    
* EXACTA: 9-8 BOX, 8-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/8/9 BOX, 1/6/8 BOX
 
COMMENTS: TAM TAM makes three starts in a row for the first time and upped her speed figure in the last three. STORMS WAKE has a pair of bullet works between races and will close late. INDIGO WOODS has good turf breeding and the potential for a breakout race in just her fourth start. DANDONAs resume suggests a big pop could be coming in the second start after a layoff.
 
    
 
 RACE #10    $300,000 Stakes
 1 1/8 Miles ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 5:28 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $300,000 BLAME STAKES GRADE III
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN9-58VibeL Saez
PLACE5-23Hit ShowI Ortiz Jr.
SHOW12-15Who DeyB J Hernandez Jr.
WILD CARD15-16Original SinT Gaffalione
 
ALTERNATE 110-14Capital IdeaJ Alvarado
ALTERNATE 26-12Hall of FameJ L Ortiz
    
* EXACTA: 8-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/8 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX
 
COMMENTS: VIBE won his last three with ease while improving in each. HIT SHOW has triple digit speed figure ability and has been working well for his first up since running in the Dubai World Cup. WHO DEY is a longshot with a chance as he will be coming late and has occasional electric late speed. ORIGINAL SIN won his only start at the distance with ease.
 
    
 
 RACE #11    $275,000 Stakes
 1 1/16 Miles ON THE Turf - POST TIME: 5:59 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $275,000 ARLINGTON STAKES GRADE III
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN5-23LagynosJ L Ortiz
PLACE8-111Coal BattleC J Lanerie
SHOW9-210Brilliant BertiB J Hernandez Jr.
WILD CARD7-29QuatrocentoJ R Leparoux
 
ALTERNATE 115-16Minaret StationC A Torres
ALTERNATE 28-17MercanteJ D Ramos
    
* EXACTA: 3-11 BOX, 11-10 BOX, 10-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/10/11 BOX, 9/10/11 BOX
 
COMMENTS: LAGYNOS hit the board in eight of nine Churchill turf tries. COAL BATTLE improved his speed figure in the last three races and should continue the trend in the second up. BRILLIANT BERTI won five of six races on Churchill grass with a second. QUATROCENTO will go to the front and try to stay there.

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