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Keeneland Select

Churchill Downs Tip Sheet - May 6

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 69% of the time at this track.

RACE #1    $127,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 10:30 AM ET
 
BEST BET:  #1 EXTRA ANEJO
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN6-51Extra AnejoT Gaffalione
PLACE2-13Federal JudgeF Prat
SHOW15-12OlazabalG Corrales
WILD CARD6-18Deer DistrictJ Alvarado
 
ALTERNATE 120-17Backside BuzzC J Lanerie
ALTERNATE 26-15Stud LovinI Ortiz Jr.
    
* EXACTA: 1-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX, 2-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/3 BOX, 2/3/8 BOX
    
 
 RACE #2    $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 11:01 AM ET
 
BEST BET:  #1 CAPE TRAFALGAR
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN2-11Cape TrafalgarI Ortiz Jr.
PLACE3-18Quality ChicL Saez
SHOW6-16QuaternionJ R Leparoux
WILD CARD10-13Harbour BridgeF Prat
 
ALTERNATE 18-111ShockwaveT Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 215-19Chloes DreamC J Lanerie
    
* EXACTA: 1-8 BOX, 8-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/6/8 BOX, 3/6/8 BOX
    
 
 RACE #3    $134,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 11:31 AM ET
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN3-15King OttomanJ L Ortiz
PLACE5-21Bright FutureI Ortiz Jr.
SHOW6-114PetulanteL Saez
WILD CARD12-12Coastal DefenseC J Lanerie
 
ALTERNATE 115-16Major FedF Geroux
ALTERNATE 212-111Brigadier GeneralR Gutierrez
    
* EXACTA: 5-1 BOX, 1-14 BOX, 14-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/14 BOX, 1/2/14 BOX
    
 
 RACE #4    $750,000 STAKES
 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:04 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $750,000 DERBY CITY DISTAFF GRADE I
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN4-52Goodnight OliveI Ortiz Jr.
PLACE7-25MatareyaF Prat
SHOW3-13Wicked HaloT Gaffalione
WILD CARD6-11Hot and SultryJ Rosario
 
ALTERNATE 115-14Travel ColumnG Corrales
ALTERNATE 220-16My DestinyR Gutierrez
    
* EXACTA: 2,5/2,3,5
* TRIFECTA: 2/3,5/1,3,4,5,6
 
COMMENTS: GOODNIGHT OLIVE is a winning machine and most of the time the outcome was not close. MATAREYA finished in the money two of two at Churchill and three of three at the distance. WICKED HALO has a pair of wins and thirds at the distance which includes her career best speed number. HOT AND SULTRY showed more early pace in her last run but has been a cut below the top three.
 
    
 
 RACE #5    $500,000 STAKES
 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 12:36 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $500,000 DISTAFF TURF MILE STAKES GRADE II
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN7-55SpendarellaT Gaffalione
PLACE9-27Fluffy SocksI Ortiz Jr.
SHOW4-13HaughtyJ L Ortiz
WILD CARD7-22Speak of the DevilF Prat
 
ALTERNATE 15-14WakanakaJ Rosario
ALTERNATE 220-18Freedom SpeaksJ Graham
    
* EXACTA: 2,3,5,7 Box
* TRIFECTA: 2,3,5,7 Box
 
COMMENTS: SPENDARELLA looks like the class of this race. The lone concern is that this is the longest stretch between races. FLUFFY SOCKS jockey and trainer duo of Irad Ortiz and Chad Brown win at a strong 44 percent together. HAUGHTY is less than a length away from winning five of her six starts and could get a trip to her liking here. SPEAK OF THE DEVIL might have the most potential in the group but might prefer for the track to something other than firm.
 
    
 
 RACE #6    $175,000 STAKES
 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:14 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $175,000 KNICKS GO OVERNIGHT STAKES
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN3-13Baby YodaJ Castellano
PLACE5-26ZozosF Geroux
SHOW6-12MasqueparadeJ Rosario
WILD CARD10-111KupunaR Gutierrez
 
ALTERNATE 14-112Caddo RiverT Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 215-18Promise KeeperL Saez
    
* EXACTA: 3,6/2,3,6,8,11,12
* TRIFECTA: 2,3,6/2,3,6/2,3,6,8,11,12
 
COMMENTS: BABY YODA is a versatile horse that has shown he can keep up with early speed of come from off the pace to win. ZOZOS is usually well backed by horseplayers and should make a lot of noise down the stretch. MASQUEPARADE will be extremely dangerous if he gets off to a good start and competes early. KUPUNA is making his third start after a layoff with a bullet workout in his last before this start.
 
    
 
 RACE #7    $500,000 STAKES
 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 1:56 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $500,000 TURF SPRINT GRADE II
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN4-110Arrest Me RedI Ortiz Jr.
PLACE5-17Nothing BetterM Franco
SHOW8-111MotoriousF Prat
WILD CARD7-24Big InvasionJ Rosario
 
ALTERNATE 112-13Evan SingJ L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 212-12Go Bears GoJ R Velazquez
    
* EXACTA: 4,7,10,11 Box
* TRIFECTA: 7,10,11/3,4,7,10,11/2,3,4,7,10,11
 
COMMENTS: ARREST ME RED has three wins and two thirds in five at the distance and should be sharp today. NOTHING BETTER looks to be in top form with bullets galore on the training track and a wire to wire win in his last. MOTORIOUS finished no worse than third in his six races since coming from England. BIG INVASION handled almost all of the horses he has faced to date but steps up here.
 
    
 
 RACE #8    $500,000 STAKES
 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:46 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $500,000 PAT DAY MILE GRADE II
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN8-11Kangaroo CourtJ R Velazquez
PLACE5-112Gun PilotT Gaffalione
SHOW7-25Echo AgainF Geroux
WILD CARD9-27Fort BraggJ Rosario
 
ALTERNATE 14-19General JimL Saez
ALTERNATE 250-114Freezing PointC J Lanerie
    
* EXACTA: 1,12/1,5,7,9,12,14
* TRIFECTA: 1,12/1,2,5,7/1,5,7,9,12,14
 
COMMENTS: KANGAROO COURT ran better fractions at 6 and half furlongs in his last than he did at 6 furlongs in the prior start. GUN PILOT missed as the favorite in his last. Trainer Steve Asmussen rebounds at 24 percent the next time out. ECHO AGAIN could make easy work of this field if he can turn back to his debut. FORT BRAGG might be the most consistent performer in the race and might be poised to improve today.
 
    
 
 RACE #9    $500,000 STAKES
 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:40 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $500,000 AMERICAN TURF STAKES GRADE II
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN3-111Carl SpacklerJ L Ortiz
PLACE5-21Major DudeI Ortiz Jr.
SHOW7-22Far BridgeJ Rosario
WILD CARD12-112Funtastic AgainG Corrales
 
ALTERNATE 110-18Mo StashL Saez
ALTERNATE 215-15JohannesU Rispoli
    
* EXACTA: 1,2,5,11 Box
* TRIFECTA: 1,2,11/1,2,11/1,2,5,11,12
 
COMMENTS: CARL SPACKLER and MAJOR DUDE both ran speed figures above 100 in their last races. They are the only two that have reached triple digits in this race. CARL SPACKLER is the more lightly raced horse which means he could have more upside. FAR BRIDGE is also lightly raced with just two races and might have more than he has shown to date. JOHANNES steps up the class level here but his performances on grass and pedigree numbers fit with the top contenders at a much better price.
 
    
 
 RACE #10    $750,000 STAKES
 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:31 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $750,000 CHURCHILL DOWNS STAKES GRADE I
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN4-57Codys WishJ Alvarado
PLACE10-12C Z RocketF Prat
SHOW5-110EndorsedT Gaffalione
WILD CARD6-11White AbarrioP Lopez
 
ALTERNATE 130-14Hoist the GoldL Saez
ALTERNATE 230-111Steal SunshineI Ortiz Jr.
    
* EXACTA: 7/1,2,10
* TRIFECTA: 7/1,2,10/1,2,4,10,11
 
COMMENTS: CODYS WISH is undefeated in four at Churchill Downs. CZ ROCKET appears to be a horse for the course with four wins in nine starts including his career best effort. ENDORSED ran better fractions in his last race. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione stays here instead of riding the next pick WHITE ABARRIO who made easy work of the field in his first try at todays distance.
 
    
 
 RACE #11    $1,000,000 STAKES
 1 1/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:27 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $1M TURF CLASSIC STAKES GRADE I
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN5-19Spooky ChannelJ Rosario
PLACE9-28SantinT Gaffalione
SHOW4-15Up to the MarkI Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD5-14Steady OnJ L Ortiz
 
ALTERNATE 110-13Wolfies DynaghostJ R Velazquez
ALTERNATE 27-27Hong Kong HarryF Prat
    
* EXACTA: 4,5,8,9 Box
* TRIFECTA: 3,4,5,7,8,9/8,9/3,4,7,8,9
 
COMMENTS: This might be the most competitive race on the card. SPOOKY CHANNEL won 13 of 28 races on turf. SANTIN stumbled badly at the start of his last race and could be overlooked by horseplayers due to the poor finish. UP TO THE MARK appears to be getting more fit as he has increased his late pace in the last three outings. STEADY ON showed more early enthusiasm in his last race which can be an indication of good outing in the next start.
 
    
 
 RACE #12    $3,000,000 STAKES
 1 1/4 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:57 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $3M KENTUCKY DERBY GI
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN3-115ForteI Ortiz Jr.
PLACE10-110Practical MoveR A Vazquez
SHOW30-11Hit ShowM Franco
WILD CARD12-16KingsbarnsJ L Ortiz
 
ALTERNATE 18-114Angel of EmpireF Prat
ALTERNATE 25-15Tapit TriceL Saez
    
* EXACTA: 1,6,10,15 Box
* TRIFECTA: 10,15/1,6,10,15/1,5,6,10,14,15
 
COMMENTS: FORTE is the has not done anything wrong horse and will likely put in another good race in the third off the bench. PRACTICAL MOVE got off to a sluggish start and still won the Santa Anita Derby. His works say he get off to a better start here. HIT SHOW has increased his speed figure in four straight. KINGSBARN is unbeaten in three starts and none have been close.
 
    
 
 RACE #13    $127,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:55 PM ET
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN3-12EquivoqueI Ortiz Jr.
PLACE4-110Shoppers RevengeT Gaffalione
SHOW5-16Promise Me a RideF Geroux
WILD CARD10-15B MinorB J Hernandez Jr.
 
ALTERNATE 112-19Let It RideJ L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 25-13Bo CruzJ Rosario
    
* EXACTA: 2-10 BOX, 10-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/6/10 BOX, 5/6/10 BOX
    
 
 RACE #14    $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 8:30 PM ET
 
BEST BET:  #2 EVERSO MISCHIEVOUS
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN5-22Everso MischievousF Geroux
PLACE4-19MullikinF Prat
SHOW6-116Le BarI Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD7-214DillingerJ R Velazquez
 
ALTERNATE 120-113SimovicC A Emigh
ALTERNATE 230-11Macho VillaM Franco
    
* EXACTA: 2-9 BOX, 9-16 BOX, 16-14 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/9/16 BOX, 9/14/16 BOX