By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

Hot List Key:
 A: A preferred horse to watch  B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

1^st race – (11) Powershift returns to the maiden ranks after running in a graded stakes. Gets the call here. (9) Winston Ave comes off a narrow loss and should be right there at the finish. (8) Bourbon Dream was second in his debut and will be a factor here. (3) Silent Way can make some noise here.

2^nd race – (4) Memory broke his maiden around two turns at Santa Anita for Baffert and looks best here. (8) Taptastic was third in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby and should be the key rival. (2) Sovereign Law seems to enjoy added distance. (6) Make My Day looked sharp in a maiden win on a sloppy track.

3^rd race - (5) John Hancock has not raced since running third in last year’s Louisiana Derby. Can sign on in 2026 with a victory. (12) Praetor might have bounced after a tough comeback race. May move forward here. (10) Vibe merits consideration while chasing a third straight win. (6) Who Dey seems on edge for his 2026 debut.

4^th race – The Derby City Distaff (G1) - (5) Splendora has notched 5 straight wins and can make it six in a row today. (1) Usha gives Baffert a strong hand in this stakes. (4) Ways and Means has been away since June but usually turns in a top effort.

5^th race – The Twin Spires Turf Sprint (G2) - (10) Joe Shiesty gets a positive pace scenario and may lead throughout here. (9) Litigation gets Irad and may lead to a better performance. (7) Yellow Card should pose a threat in the final furlong. (3) My Boy Prince chases a third straight win and looms a major player.

6th race – (4) Be You was right behind sprint champ Book‘em Danno and should relish the added distance. (2) Dragoon Guard has been first or second in 10 of 12 starts and belongs in the exotics. (6) Tour Player loves this track. (10) Capital Idea will be dangerous on his best try.

7^th race  - The Longines Churchill Distaff  Turf Mile Stakes (G2) - (5) Classic Q may get to the front here and not look back. (4) Temptable should get attention in her first start for Mott. (2) Sweet Rebecca seeks a third straight win and cannot be ignored. (3) Portfolio Duration is capable of making a splash in her stakes debut.

8^th race – The Pat Day Mile Stakes (G2) - (6) Crude Velocity comes off a highly impressive allowance win for Baffert and gets top billing. (1) Englishman has talent and will get tested for class here. (8) Creole Chrome should be better suited by the one-turn distance. (4) Secured Freedom merits some attention here.

9^th race – The American Turf Stakes (G2) - (4) Stark Contrast passed up the Kentucky Derby for this. Seems like a wise decision. (12) Remember Mamba closed with gusto to win the Transylvania. Drew a tough post here. (9) Honey Dutch has enough speed to hang around until the end. (8) Greenwich Village is unbeaten in two turf starts and cannot be discounted.

10^th race – The Churchill Downs Stakes (G1) - (6) Knightsbridge has been winning easily and seems primed for an initial Grade 1 win. (2) Cornucopian has been razor sharp this year and is the one to fear. (1) Disco Time may prefer the sprint distance. (5) Disruptor has taken his game to a new level this year.

11^th race – The Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic (G1) - (6) Rhetorical was fractious at the gate and finished a close in the Grade 1 Maker’s Mark. Can prevail here with a smooth trip. (9) Test Score was given a break after winning the Pegasus Turf and seems like the one to fear. (4) Program Trading adds blinkers and is a major threat on his top try. (10) Make Me King is an intriguing foreign import.

12^th race – The Kentucky Derby (G1) - (12) Chief Wallabee may be short on experience but he has extreme talent as evidenced by two narrow losses to Commandment. Really liked the way he closed ground between horses in the loaded Florida Derby in just his third start and can see him moving forward off that race. He adds blinkers and has worked sensationally for the race. Make it back-to-back wins for trainer Bill Mott and jockey Junior Alvarado. (1) Renegade did enough to be the pick until the post position draw. While it’s not impossible to win from the rail, everything has to go right to do it and that’s asking a lot in a 20-horse field. Still, with his closing kick, he belongs in the exacta. (15) Emerging Market has less experience than Chief Wallabee, but has posted great speed figures in his two starts and trainer Chad Brown loves the six weeks rest. Hard to ignore him. (6) Commandment keeps firing a good effort, race after race. Belongs in the superfecta.

13th race – (11) Noble Affair has a nice turn of speed and could lead throughout here. (8) Gilded Bandit added blinkers and won nicely for Mott. Looms the main threat. (10) Buetane has been racing in two-turn stakes and cuts back here for Baffert. (5) Hulkamania might hulk up in this spot.

14th race – (9) Big Jake debuts for Baffert and has the look of a fast one. (14) Brave Pilot has also turned in a series of promising works for his debut. (8) Find No Fault was second in his initial start and has the credentials to win. (3) Interrogator is another firster who merits attention.