By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

The $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes, Tampa Bay Downs, Race 11

The Sam F. Davis is the first of two stops on the Tampa Bay Downs road to the 2026 Kentucky Derby and carries with it 42 qualifying points (20-10-6-4-2) to the top five finishers. (6) Renegade is still technically a maiden after three starts although he crossed the finished line first in an October race at Aqueduct only to be disqualified to second after some bumping in the stretch. Then he finished second in the Remsen (G2) on the Derby trail and is the only horse in the Davis to earn any qualifying points. (1) Confessional was a debut maiden winner in October at Keeneland and then was second in an allowance behind Nearly who just won the Holy Bull (G3). (9) Dr. Kapur broke his maiden in his second start beating a horse that is a winner on the Derby trail and set the pace in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) in November. (4) Game for It won an optional claiming maiden in his only start in New York in December as an odds-on favorite. Betting strategy: Exacta key box: 6 with 1, 4, 9. Trifecta box: 1, 4, 6, 9.