Florida Derby – Grade 1 | Purse $1 Million | One Mile and One Eighth | Three Year Olds

Race 14 at Gulfstream Park | Saturday April 1 | Post Time 6:40 PM Eastern

Main contenders:

There’s no doubt Forte (11) is the horse to beat. He returned last month from a four month rest to easily win the Fountain of Youth Stakes by four and one-half lengths as if he’d never been away. Last year after winning the Hopeful Stakes around one turn in September with a 95 Equibase Speed Figure, Forte truly blossomed when stretched out to two-turns, winning the Breeders’ Futurity with a 102 figure and then the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile with a 105 figure. There’s not much to add because his resume speaks for itself. The colt often has a tremendous burst of speed whenever jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. asks him, as evidenced in the Fountain of Youth when the colt went from fourth, two lengths behind the leader with a quarter mile to run, to third (just a half-length back) to draw off. The ONLY knock, if there is one, is that Forte drew the 11 post in a field of 12 for this mile and one-eighth trip, which at Gulfstream Park starts fairly close to the first turn. However, considering Forte usually races in fifth to seventh in the early stages, he just needs to get past a few horses in the early stages to not lose too much ground around the first turn. From then on, his mental and physical ability could do the rest.

All that being said, considering Forte will be the prohibitive betting favorite, a horse like Mage (4) is very interesting, particularly as he is likely to be ignored by many bettors. Comparing the much more lightly raced Mage to Forte, Mage, like Forte, won his career debut in very easy fashion, earning an 88 Equibase Speed figure at the time. When winning in his debut last May Forte earned a 91 figure, before regressing to 80 when fourth in the Sanford Stakes last July. Forte then proceeded to earned 95, 102, 105 and 106 figures starting with his Hopeful Stakes win last September. Mage also improved significantly, to earn a 95 figure, when stepped up in class last month in the Fountain of Youth Stakes last month in only the second start of his career and first around two-turns. Hitting the stall gate as the race started, Mage was away last of nine then rushed up to be fourth after a quarter mile had been run. He then made a run at the leaders to get within a half-length on the far turn before running evenly. Although the number of lengths behind the leader from an eighth of a mile to go until the finish increased from one to six and three-quarters, that was a bit deceiving as Forte drew off by four and one-half lengths. Early pacesetter Cyclone Mischief (9), who is also entered in this race, faded to third, beaten five and three-quarters of a length, which Mage just one length further back. Thinking about what might have occurred if Mage had not gotten away last and rushed up mid-race, but rather had that burst of speed in the stretch, it is entirely conceivable the colt could have finished second. There is little doubt Mage has the pedigree to run this mile and one-eighth trip, as his dam’s sire is 2008 Kentucky Derby winner Big Brown and his sire is 2018 Blue Grass Stakes winner Good Magic. Given the pattern of improvement from an 88 figure in his debut to 95 (with trouble) in only the second start of his career, and in a graded stakes race, Mage has a big shot to get into the 102 range which is certainly good enough for second here if Forte improves off his last effort. If, on the other hand, Forte only repeats his last effort, Mage has a chance to upset.

Dubyuhnell (12) has a similarly disadvantageous post as Forte, having drawn the outside in this field of 12. Sent to post as the favorite in the Sam F. Davis Stakes on February 11, following more than three months off, Dubyuhnell had significant traffic trouble in the first turn which caused him to fall back to 10^th and he could not recover thereafter. However, he’s worked strongly in the mornings since that last race. Considering he won the Remsen Stakes at the distance of the Florida Derby last fall with a 101 figure and that his most recent effort might be an outlier, Dubyuhnell could have a say in the outcome of this race.

Nautical Star (6) is a very interesting longshot in this year’s Florida Derby, likely to be at least 20 to 1 odds when the field enters the gate. He is one of four horses in the race trained by Saffie Joseph, Jr, and he shared ownership with one of those, Mr. Peeks (5). Nautical Star has run twice to date, both sprints at the distance of six furlongs. In his most recent effort when improving to a 93 figure, Nautical Star rallied from seventh of 11 to win by a nose. Both Nautical Star and Mr. Peeks were privately purchased following their most recent races. Given that Mr. Peeks (who is still a maiden) is stretching out to two-turns, as well as has had the lead from the start through the first five furlongs in both career starts, it appears he is entered to insure an honest pace for Nautical Star to close into. Sire Dixie Chatter stands in Oklahoma for a pretty low ($2,500) stud fee but won two graded stakes in his career including the Grade 2 Norfolk Stakes at a mile and one-sixteenth as a two year old, and a Race Lens query reveals Dixie Chatter has sired nine dirt route winners from just 22 foals to run in dirt routes. I’m not predicting Nautical Star can win the Florida Derby in a huge upset, but it appears very plausible the colt could rally into second or third as many horses tire late, therefore providing for a nice payout in the exacta or trifecta. I also wouldn’t hesitate to bet $2 or $5 to win in the rare case he did post the upset.

Win bets: Mage (4) can be bet to win at odds of 4 to 1 or more.

For a smaller amount (owing to much higher odds than on Mage), Nautical Star (6) can be bet to win, or win, place, or win, place and show, at odds of 15 to 1 or more.

Although I would not bet Forte (11) to win, his fair odds based on probability are 3 to 2

Dubyuhnell (12) has fair odds of 5 to 1, and so with starting odds of 6 to 1 he is playable but marginally, and offers much less return for the risk for a win bet as compared to Mage and to Nautical Star.

Exotic wagers:

The first strategy is to play the favorite Forte (11) in the win position on exacta and optionally trifecta tickets trying to make a bigger profit as compared to a win bet. We do this by adding some horses at high odds to the mix in the second and third positions, as follows:

Exacta: Forte (11) over Mage (4) and Nautical Star (6)

Trifecta: Forte (11) over ALL over Mage (4) and Nautical Star (6)

Then, considering Mage opens at 10 to 1 as compared to 30 to 1 for Nautical Star, we can play additional tickets with Mage in second and third as follows:

Exacta: Forte (11) over Mage (4)

Trifecta: Forte (11) over ALL over Mage (4)

Then we can also play an exacta box of the other three contenders, except without Forte:

Exacta: Box Mage (4), Nautical Star (6) and Dubyuhnell (12)

Last, but not least, boxing all four contenders, which at the $1 level has a total cost of $12, might yield extra profit if Forte does not win but finishes second, with any of the other three contenders winning:

Box Mage (4), Nautical Star (6), Forte (11) and Dubyuhnell (12)

The above bet can also be played as a trifecta box, which at the $0.50 minimum has a cost of $12