Race 9 at Churchill Downs | Saturday, April 26 | Post Time 9:40 PM Eastern

Roxelana Stakes | Purse $200,000 | Fillies and Mares, Four Years Old and Upward | Six Furlongs

 

Non-Contenders:

Non Violence (1) has won four of 10 career starts on dirt, including the only time she ever raced at Churchill Downs. She won over the track in May of 2023, powerfully by five lengths, earning an 83 Equibase Speed Figure, then less than four weeks later won a race at Ellis Park with a much improved 95 figure. That second win in a row came on a muddy track while the one before it came on a fast track and as I write this the forecast is for rain, but either way this mare has what it takes to win, particularly as she then ran even better when second to multiple stakes winner Wicked Halo in the Twin Bridges Stakes in July. She went off form for four races after that, but two were irrelevant as they were on turf, and when moved back to dirt, on April 4, Non Violence bounced back with an eight length win in a non-graded stakes race like this one, and 94 figure. As she’s won back-to-back previously, Non Violence has potential to repeat, and her win in the mud in June two years ago came from the rail so that’s not a concern. Last, but not least, in this race Sandy Bottom (2), who hasn’t run in two months, is a need the lead type who will be very fast and fresh, but with Girls Weekend (7) also likely to want the lead from the start. Jockey Murrill (who rode Non Violence) for the first time in victory 22 days ago and who rides again, can have the mare in a perfect stalking trip in the early stages and set to win again.

Mink’s Palace (8) has earned all three of her career wins here at Churchill Downs, in five races here. The first was in her debut in November 2023 and since she’s returning from a four month layoff it’s likely she will fire fresh again. Saez was aboard for that win and one of her other two victories, also at Churchill Downs, last September, which earned a 93 Equibase Spee Figure as good as two of the best three figure efforts put forth by Non Violence. Saez did not ride in her last two starts and gets back aboard. She rallied from sixth, fifth and sixth in her three wins and if the pace is hotly contested we can expect Mink’s Palace to be making a strong late run good enough to win.

Harbor Springs (6), like Non Violence, has won at Churchill Downs and has won on a wet track. The win at Churchill Downs came last November, with a decent 91 figure effort. After three months off, Harbor Springs returned to win as if she had never been off, earning a 98 figure for a win at this six furlong trip at Fair Grounds. Rested two months again, there’s every reason to figure she will fire again, and as she’s closed from third to win and from eighth to win in her two recent victories, Harbor Springs is another who can benefit if the pace is hot, especially if Non Violence is up too close to the pacesetters early and susceptible to this filly’s late kick.

Bets:  

Win: Non Violence (1) at odds of 8 to 5

Then I’d consider a second win bet on either Mink’s Palace (8) or Harbor Springs (6), whichever is higher odds, provided those odds are 3 to 1 or more.

Exacta: Box Violence (1), Mink’s Palace (8) and Harbor Springs (6).