Race 8 at Keeneland | Saturday, April 4 | Post Time 4:44 PM Eastern

Appalachian Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $500,000 | One Mile on Turf | Fillies, Three Years Old

Top Win Contenders: Just Aloof (7), Imaginationthelady (11)

Other contenders: Faithful Departed (3), Counterbalance (11), Lion Lake (8), Sister Troienne (9)

Just Aloof (7) won both her races, with her second being the Grade 3 Jimmy Durante Stakes at Del Mar at the end of November, where she earned a career-best 95 Equibase Speed Figure. Her first win was in New York. Top trainer Chad Brown doesn’t send many horses to California, but he wanted to see what she could do. She has been off for three months since then, but Brown has won six out of 18 graded stakes races with horses returning from this kind of layoff. Prat is riding her for the first time, and Just Aloof is expected to improve and possibly remain unbeaten.

Imaginationthelady (11) also won a stakes race, the Grade 2 Jessamine Stakes last October at Keeneland in her second start, and like Just Aloof, this filly won her maiden race previously. In her third start, she competed in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Filly Turf Stakes, where she performed well with a career-best 103 figure, finishing fourth. Jockey Gaffalione is riding her for the first time. The jockey chose Imaginationthelady, also trained by trainer Brendan Walsh, over Lion Lake, who he rode for the win in the Herecomesthebride Stakes one month ago. Walsh has a 23% win rate with horses returning from layoffs, and Imaginationthelady can rebound at Keeneland.

Faithful Departed (3) has a chance to be part of the exacta and could win at high odds. She just missed by half a length, finishing second in the LaCombe Memorial Stakes on March 7, with an 89 figure where she was 35 to 1. In that race, she might have won if not for traffic in the last quarter mile, where she was fifth and had shifted from the inside to four wide, missing the win. In her last race, the rail was set out 21 feet, but today’s race will have the rail at zero, which benefits closers. Additionally, jockey Loveberry, who rode her for his only win, is returning to ride her after a different ride last out.

Counterbalance (11) won the China Doll Stakes on March 8 with a career-best 97 figure after earning her maiden win following a two-month layoff. She ran well, and although she draws the outside, she has speed, so she should be able to reach the front or sit second early. She gets Saez for the first time; he is the jockey known for riding horses with early speed.

Lion Lake (8) and Sister Troienne (7) finished first and second, just a head apart, in the Herecomesthebride Stakes on February 28, earning career-best 97 figures. Both horses also won their previous races in January and have a shot.

Win bets: Just Aloof (7) and Imaginationthelady (11) at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.

I might bet on one of the others, but I would need better odds than on the top contenders, so Faithful Departed (3) at odds of 6 to 1 or better, along with Counterbalance (11), Lion Lake (8), and Sister Troienne (7).

Exactas: Just Aloof (7) and Imaginationthelady (11) over Just Aloof (7), Imaginationthelady (11), Faithful Departed (3), Counterbalance (11), Lion Lake (8), and Sister Troienne (7).