Race 8 at Saratoga | Saturday August 2 | Post Time 3:52 PM Eastern

Fourstardave Stakes – Grade 1 | Purse $750,000 | One Mile on Turf | Four Year Olds and Upward

Top Contenders to win: Think Big (4), Deterministic (8), Johannes (3)
For use on some exacta tickets: Spirit of St Louis (7)

Analysis and win contenders:
In a top Grade 1 mile with a lot of graded stakes winners, true milers (who excel at this distance on grass) and horses who have proven themselves over the turf, particularly the inner turf course at Saratoga, I will start with Think Big (4), who opens at 6 to 1, the same odds he went to post at when winning the grade 3 Kelso Stakes on this course and at this distance four weeks ago. Think Big was a bit overlooked that day as he had finished seventh in the Grade 1 Jaipur Stakes four weeks prior to that, BUT he had won a pair of Grade 2 stakes in a row in April and May, including the Turf Sprint on Kentucky Derby day as the 2 to 1 favorite. Those factors made Think Big my top pick for the Keeneland Select race of the day on June 5, and hopefully many of you who read the analysis benefited nicely.

Now, Think Big does step up in class from that grade 3 race one month ago into grade 1, but he’s already a multiple grade 2 winner on turf, and he really showed a liking for the Inner Turf in the Kelso where he ran the last quarter mile in 22.4 seconds, after having to pause in traffic with three-eighths of a mile to run. Some may be concerned that Jose Ortiz, who rode Think Big in the Kelso, appears to choose My Boy Prince (2) for this race, who he rode just once previously, to a ninth-place finish in a stakes race last October. Luis Saez gets the mount on Think Big although never having ridden him before and only riding for trainer Michael Stidham two times going back to January 1 or 2024. Neither factor has me concerned at all, because Saez HAS WON THE FOURSTARDAVE FOUR TIMES IN THE PAST 10 years, including back-to-back wins aboard Casa Creed in 2022 and 2023. Simply put, if Think Big repeats his Kelso effort, he can post the upset at about the same 6 to 1 odds as we were rewarded with four weeks ago.

Deterministic (8) has won back-to-back graded stakes the same way Think Big did in April and May. Deterministic won the Grade 2 Fort Marcy Stakes in May by four lengths as the 2 to 1 favorite then he won the Grade 1 Manhattan on the Inner Turf at Saratoga three weeks ago. He won both when leading from start to finish and although getting a bit tired at the end of the Manhattan, with his margin shrinking from two lengths to a head over the last eighth of a mile, he still ran the races with a lot of late energy. That being said, Deterministic isn’t a “need the lead” type, as he closed from fourth to second last June and from fifth to win a Grade 3 stakes last September AND November. It must also be noted that Far Bridge, the third-place finisher in the Manhattan, returned to win the Grade 3 Bowling Green Stakes last weekend to flatter Deterministic. There aren’t any horses which prefer running on the lead in this field except Deterministic, so I expect jockey Kendrick Carmouche, who is two for two aboard the colt, to put him on the lead. Cutting back from one mile and one-eighth benefits Deterministic as well, so he should be strongly respected as a contender to win this race.

It's an odds day when I am placing a horse as good as Johannes (3) on a contender list, but here we are. Johannes returned from an 11 month layoff last April and won as if he’d never been away, winning the first of five straight graded stakes races, three at this one-mile distance. His only loss last year came when he missed by three-quarters of a length in the Breeders’ Cup Mile last November, then he returned to the winner’s circle to end his 2024 campaign with a sharp win on December 26 in the Grade 2 San Gabriel Stakes. Having won at a mile last year after 11 months off, there’s little doubt Johannes will fire off the seven-month layoff he’s returning from in the Fourstardave. However, he meets a very sharp bunch of proven Grade 1 and 2 stakes winners unlike the field he faced in the Grade 3 American Stakes last April, so although he can win, he’s no standout.

Spirit of St Louis (7) has won three of four tries at this mile turf trip, and he’s a Grade 1 stakes winner, having taken the Grade 1 Turf Classic Stakes on Kentucky Derby day under Manny Franco, who rides again and who has been in the saddle for eight of the horse’s 11 career wins. Spirit of St Louis has also run well on the Inner Turf at Saratoga, finishing first or second in three of four races. His worst effort in some time came 24 days ago when he ran sixth from start to finish as the favorite in the Manhattan Stakes, won by Deterministic. However, two of his last three wins have followed poor efforts when fifth and fourth, respectively, before the wins, so there is every reason to believe Spirit of St Louis should be a contender in this field.

Win Bets:
We must take advantage of the fact that although he can win, Johannes (3) isn’t a standout, and therefore the best value lies in betting on Think Big (4) and Deterministic (8), at odds of 3 to 1 or more, with the starting odds on those horses well above that threshold at 6 to 1 and 9 to 2, respectively. Johannes (3) has about the same probability to win, so his “fair odds,” or minimum odds for considering a win bet, are 3 to 1, but he will go to post at lower odds.

I would also consider a win bet on Spirit of St Louis (7) at 5 to 1 or more.

Exactas:

Box Think Big (4), Deterministic (8) and Johannes (3).
Box Think Big (4), Deterministic (8), Johannes (3) and Spirit of St Louis (7).

Trifecta:

Box Think Big (4), Deterministic (8), Johannes (3) and Spirit of St Louis (7).