Race 13 at Saratoga | Saturday, August 29 | Post Time: 6:35 PM Eastern

Travers Stakes – Grade 1 | Purse: $1.25 Million | One Mile and One-Quarter | Three-Year-Olds

Top Win Contender(s): Renegade (5), Golden Tempo (9), Sea Strike (7)

Renegade (5), Golden Tempo (9), and Sea Strike (7) are the top win contenders. The Jim Dandy and the Belmont Stakes were run at one and a quarter miles, the same as the Travers. Only two horses have won at a similar one mile and three-sixteenths distance. One is Emerging Market (1), who won the Louisiana Derby in March, but it wasn't fast enough, and his three races since then haven’t been good enough either. The other is Napoleon Solo (3), who won the Preakness in May. In the last five years of the Travers, three winners have come from the Jim Dandy, and two were from Belmont. Although Napoleon Solo could be an early front-runner, it should be noted that no horse has won the Haskell and the Travers since 2001.

Renegade (5) has the recency, having just won the Jim Dandy on August 1, and although Golden Tempo beat him in the Kentucky Derby, he was beaten by a neck. The only time he ran with Golden Tempo was in the Belmont; Renegade made a run to be within a neck at the eighth pole, but he flattened out and finished third. His other four races were “A” races this year. Consider that three of the last five winners of the Travers won the Jim Dandy – Epicenter, Fierceness, and Sovereignty; I believe Renegade will be the fourth winner.

The two horses that have won the Belmont and won the Travers since 2021 are Arcangelo in 2023 and Essential Quality in 2021. Golden Tempo (9) also has a big shot at winning the Belmont-Travers double. Golden Tempo has a pace style similar to Renegade as both are closers. Jose Ortiz has been aboard for all six of Golden Tempo’s races. Irad Ortiz, Jr., who rode Renegade in his last three wins, is currently injured, so Tyler Gaffalione will ride Renegade. Their starting odds are similar, with Golden Tempo at 5 to 2 and Renegade at 3 to 1, but may go lower.

If there is an upset, the winning horse will be Sea Strike. He has no seasoning, as he has only raced three times and was only in one two-turn race. However, that race was awesome. It was the Curlin Stakes on August 2, one day after the Jim Dandy. In the one mile and one-eighth length race, he showed he could handle the distance of the Travers. In the Curlin, which would have earned the “easily” comment except that his jockey, Flavien Prat, gave Sea Strike the crop one time (for no reason I can see, as Sea Strike was well clear). Sea Strike earned 109, the best Equibase Figure of any horse in the Travers field. Golden Tempo earned a 101 in his wins in the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont, and Renegade earned a 100 in the Derby and the same 100 in the Jim Dandy. Renegade earned a 107 figure in March in the Arkansas Derby, but he hasn’t run that fast since then. Sea Strike is trained by Chad Brown, who has never won the Travers, but Brown won the Alabama (with My Gun’s Loaded) last weekend at Saratoga at the same distance as the Travers. Sea Strike starts at 5 to 1, so if I have to bet to win, it will be on this horse.

Win bet: Renegade, Golden Tempo at odds of 3 to 2 or higher.

Sea Strike at odds of 7 to 2 or higher.