Race 9 at Saratoga | Saturday, August 8 | Post Time 4:36 PM Eastern

Test Stakes – Grade 1| Purse $500,000 | Seven Furlongs | Fillies, Three-Years-Old

Top Win Contender(s): Where Luck Lives (4), Movie Night (1), Sippin Pretty (3)

Where Luck Lives (4) has the top early speed in this field. She gets the four post, and the three horses inside her lack her early speed. Jockey Luis Saez rode her last time, when she went to the front and made every pole, winning by five lengths. She earned a 100 Equibase Speed Figure, the best among the other seven. Although she is running in her first stakes race and five of the other horses have won stakes, she has pedigree to win, as her half-sister Vahva won $2.2 million and four graded stakes races at this seven-furlong distance. She has been off for more than two months, which means she is fresh, and she will get the lead and control the front. At 12/1 starting odds, she is a good bet.

Movie Night (1), like Where Luck Lives, has won two straight and is in her first stakes. She won her races by five and eight lengths, earning 98 and 99 figures. In her first win, she was sixth early, then put in a big kick to take the lead at the eighth pole before winning ‘ridden out.’ In her last race, she stalked in second and again put in a big kick to be in front by three lengths at the eighth. Flavien Prat rode her in her last race and rides Explora today, but Movie Night gets Jose Ortiz, who is battling Prat for the riding title at 33 to 34. She has the best chance to pass Where Luck Lives.

Sippin Pretty (3) has won three of her last four races. That one poor effort can have a line drawn around it because she was eighth early and last of nine after a quarter. In all three of her wins, she was no worse than fourth. She rebounded to win her last race at Saratoga, the Victory Ride Stakes, one month ago. She earned her career-best 95 figure off a two-month layoff, and she should also improve.

There are also three more horses who can win and I wouldn’t disagree if you want to bet them. Explora (7) has won five races, including the Leslie’s Lady Stakes. Still, she earned just a 93 figure in her last race and her best figure of 97 last January. She hasn’t gotten faster and at 5 to 2 odds, I like other horses better. On Time Girl (6) finished second to Explora in the Leslie’s Lady and won the Eight Belles Stakes earlier. Her last two figures were 94 and 91. Goodall (5) finished second to Sippin Pretty in the Victory Ride when she rallied to lead at the eighth pole by two lengths but had no kick to catch the winner. She has decent figures of 93 and 92 but is not good enough to be a top contender.

Win bets: Where Luck Lives (4), Movie Night (1), Sippin Pretty (3) at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.

I would bet two of the three horses at the fair odds or higher.