Race 9 at Colonial Downs | Saturday August 9 | Post Time 4:41 PM Eastern

Secretariat Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $500,000 | One Mile on Turf | Three Year Olds

Win contenders in preference/probability order:

Anegada (6), Simulate (4), Antisocial (5), Dream On (8), Cairo Caper (7)

Analysis and win contenders:

Eight horses are entered in this important race for three-year-old males on the grass, and it’s a much more wide-open race than the morning line odds make it appear. The starting favorite at 5 to 2 is Dream On (8), who just won the somewhat similar Penn Mile Stakes on June 27 by a length over Cairo Caper (7), who opens at 9 to 2. Both horses can win, but neither are standouts because the 102 Equibase Speed Figure assigned to Dream On for that win is no better than the 102 figures assigned to Anegada (6) for his near win on June 7 at this mile turf trip, nor the 102 figure assigned to Simulate (4) for his win in his most recent race on July 18.

In that June 7 race at one mile at Churchill Downs, Anegada ran the last quarter mile in an impressive :22.7 seconds, faster than the 23.1 seconds Dream On ran in the Penn Mile. In that race at Churchill Downs, Anegada missed by a neck to Native Runner, who returned to finish second in the American Derby. The fifth-place finisher from that race finished second in the Nashville Derby. In his only start since then, Anegada had some traffic trouble and finished eighth of nine, beaten four lengths, but with RED HOT Tyler Gaffalione getting on, with the jockey having returned from an injury on August 5 and having won 11 of 45 since (with another 12 seconds or thirds), Anegada has a big shot to win, particularly since he passed four horses in the stretch in that June 7 race to make the lead before being run down by a horse with a better late kick and he appears to have the best late speed in this field so is less likely to get run down at the end. However, even if second at double digit odds that could mean a nice profit.

Simulate (4) was away for 11 months until June, then finished fourth in a two-turn race on grass before improving markedly to win nicely in a field of 10 on July 18. He’s moving forward nicely and has the best last race Equibase Speed Figure in the field, 102, the same figure Anegada earned when leading late then missing by a neck in June. This lightly raced three year old could be any kind for Bill Mott and as he also opens at more than decent odds, 8 to 1, he must be strongly considered.

Antisocial (5), like Simulate, just won at the first allowance condition, with a strong 100 Equibase Figure, yet he opens at 10 to 1. He returned from seven months off in May and won a sprint, then missed in a three-horse photo before winning nicely on the Colonial Downs turf course last month. This colt is a half-brother to multiple stakes winner and Grade 1 stakes winner (on grass) Keeper of the Stars ($600K) and has a bright future.

There are no big knocks on the other two contenders, Dream On (8) and Cairo Caper (7), who finished first and second, respectively, in the Penn Mile Stakes on June 27 in the most recent start for both. Still, the 102 and 100 figures they earned, respectively, aren’t any better to the recent top figures of the three horses previously mentioned, and the Penn Mile was a grade 3 stakes, so both are stepping up in class to this grade 2 level the same as the other three contenders, but they open at lower odds which are likely to stay that way – 9 to 2 for Cairo Caper and 5 to 2 for Dream On.

Win Bets:

We should start with Anegada (6) and Simulate (4), who should both be considered for win bets if their odds are 7 to 2 or more.

If one of the two is below that threshold, we should consider Antisocial (5) next, at odds of 4 to 1 or more.

The other two contenders, Dream On (8) and Cairo Caper (7) also have 4 to 1 fair odds but are unlikely to represent as much return for the risk potential as any of the others so we will try to make a profit off them running well on exacta tickets.

Exactas:

The strategy is to key the three higher odds horses in first and second, as follows, and if two of the three finish first and second, we win two times:

Anegada (6), Simulate (4), Antisocial (5) over Anegada (6), Simulate (4), Antisocial (5), Dream On (8), Cairo Caper (7)

Anegada (6), Simulate (4), Antisocial (5), Dream On (8), Cairo Caper (7) over Anegada (6), Simulate (4), Antisocial (5)