Race 7 at Turfway Park | Saturday, December 13 | Post Time 8:55 PM Eastern

Holiday Inaugural Stakes| Purse $250,000 | Six Furlongs on All-Weather | Fillies and Mares, Three-Years-Old and upward

Top winning contenders are Ellen Jay (2), Pondering (3)

Other Contenders: Civetta (7), Ms. Tart (1), Johanny (13)

Analysis and Contenders:

Ellen Jay (2) finished sixth in her last race just two weeks ago, but that result should be disregarded because it was run on traditional dirt. In today’s race, she is the top horse in this field on her first try on the all-weather track surface. On September 19, in the Grade 2 Presque Isle Masters Stakes, Ellen Jay rallied from 12th early to finish second, with a career-best 108 Equibase Speed Figure. She won the Glen Cove last year, with jockey Flavien Prat riding her for the first time. He rode her a second time in the Presque Isle Masters. Prat is back today and is riding for trainer Brad Cox, who has a 35% win rate over the past two years.

Pondering (3) won the Grade 2 Bessarabian Stakes on November 8, like Ellen Jay, this was her first attempt on an all-weather surface. She earned a career-best figure of 101 and won the Kentucky Downs Preview Ladies Turf Sprint Stakes, where she posted a 100 figure. The North American leader for 2025, Irad Ortiz Jr., rode the filly for the first time and has won 28% of his races with trainer Brendan Walsh over the past two years. Between Ortiz and Prat (who is second in the 2025 jockey standings), Prat is only $350,000 behind, despite each earning more than $39 million this year. Watch these two jockeys compete over the final three weeks of the season, especially when they race in the same events as this year’s Inaugural Stakes.

Civetta (7), Ms. Tart (1), and Johanny (13) also have a chance of being contenders. Civetta has three wins, but is racing on the all-weather surface for the first time. Her last race on turf was on November 3 with a 107 figure. Ms. Tart has five wins in 11 races this year, including a Satin N Lace Stakes on an all-weather track on August 25, with a 101 figure, but she finished ninth in the Presque Isle Master. Johanny ran a career-best race, coming in second in the Autumn Day Stakes at this distance on turf. She could have a shot.

Bets:

Win: Ellen Jay (2) and Pondering (3) should be at fair odds at 2 to 1 odds or higher.

Exactas: Ellen Jay (2) and Pondering (3) over Ellen Jay (2), Pondering (3), Civetta (7), Ms. Tart (1), Johanny (13)