Race 10 at Fair Grounds | Saturday, December 20 | Post Time 6:15 PM Eastern

Untapable Stakes | Purse $100,000 | One Mile and Seventy Yards | Fillies, Two Years Old

Actis (8) won the My Trusty Cat Stakes at Delta Downs on November 25, as the only previous stakes winner in the field. That win was at a seven-and-a-half-furlong distance in a two-turn race. She is also one of two horses to win twice in two-turn races, with the other being Hit Parade, who starts at 5 to 2 morning odds, compared to 6 to 1 for Actis. Actis improved from her first win and a 66 Equibase Speed Figure to a 75. Top trainer Amoss has won five of eight races in five years when returning with back-to-back winners from the Delta to Fair Grounds. Amoss partners with jockey Jose Ortiz, who has won about a third of their races (22 wins out of 66 starts) over the past two years. Actis has a chance for her third victory.

Luv Your Neighbor (1) won her debut in September, then finished a half-length back on December 4. Her last race earned an Equibase Speed Figure of 83. She is comfortable either taking the lead or sitting behind the early pacesetters. She showed a strong kick in her two best races. She has put in two excellent workouts, the best of 55 and the best of 69, which shows she’s fit. She continues a pattern of improvement and is a contender. Luv Your Neighbor starts at 6 to 1.

Pashmina (7) started her career on October 18 on a turf route and finished sixth. However, she was a completely different horse when she moved to a dirt route on November 28, winning by 11 lengths. That earned a 76 speed figure, and in her third career race and second route, she could improve.

Hit Parade (3) also began her career on a turf route and finished third. She won her second route race in only her third start, earning an 82 figure, which is similar to the other top contenders in this race. Hit Parade is listed at 5 to 2 odds, compared to 5 to 1 for Pashmina and 6 to 1 for Actis and Luv Your Neighbor, but that doesn’t necessarily mean she has a better chance. I prefer betting on others to win, but I would include Hit Parade in exactas.

Bets:

Win: Actis (8) and Luv Your Neighbor (1) should be considered at fair odds of 2 to 1 or higher.

Pashmina and (7) Hit Parade (3) should be considered at odds of 7 to 2 or higher.

Exactas box: Actis (8), Luv Your Neighbor (1), Pashmina, and (7) Hit Parade (3).

Race 11 at Fair Grounds | Saturday, December 20 | Post Time 6:145 PM Eastern

Gun Runner Stakes | Purse $100,000 | One Mile and One Sixteenth | Two Years Old

Mister Punch (8) started his career in September with a turf sprint and finished eighth. His second start, a dirt route on November 5, was much better. He stalked in third early, then took the lead three paths wide at the five-sixteenth pole, battled head-to-head for the lead, put that horse away, and drove on to win by five lengths. He earned an 88, the second-fastest Equibase Speed Figure of the field. His dam was Harlan Punch, who earned $780K by winning 10 races, including four stakes. Trainer Brad Cox also trained Quality Mischief and Arabia Wild, who earned figures of only 73 and 76. Saez rides for the first time and wins for Cox at 37% (19 wins out of 51) in similar stakes over the last five years. I believe Saez and his agent had a choice of the Cox trio to choose from.

Liberty National (3) also began his career in October, finishing a sprint in sixth place. Similarly to Mister Punch, who won his second race, a dirt route by four lengths. Liberty National earned a 92, the best figure in the field. He should continue to improve in his third start and be a contender.

Chip Honcho (2) also started, similar to Mister Punch and Liberty National, with a dirt sprint before winning on November 20 in a route, leading from start to finish at Churchill Downs, and earning an 83 figure. He gets blinkers, and with the inside post, the rest will be left to catch him. His trainer, Steve Asmussen, won the Gun Runner 2023 Track Phantom after a win at Churchill Downs, where Chip Honcho won last month.

Bets:

Win: Mister Punch (8), Liberty National (3), and Chip Honcho (2) are considered at fair odds of 3 to 1 or higher. If two of the three are at four to one or higher, I would place bets on those two.

Exactas box: Mister Punch (8), Liberty National (3), and Chip Honcho (2)