Race 10 at Gulfstream Park | Saturday December 28 | Post Time 4:51 PM Eastern

Mr. Prospector Stakes | Purse $165,000 | Three Year Olds and Upward | Seven Furlongs

Analysis and top contenders:

In this year’s Mr. Prospector, all eyes, as well as most bets, will be on White Abarrio (10), who undoubtedly will be the betting favorite, perhaps prohibitively so. Winner of the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Classic, White Abarrio was expected to be one of the favorites in this year’s Classic but had setbacks after a fifth-place finish in the Met Mile in June. He finally returned to the races on November 22, winning by 10 lengths in a five-horse field. He didn’t beat much, and his winning Equibase Speed Figure was 104, which was good but no better than figures of several others in this field in recent races representative of this race. Several people will assume White Abarrio may improve off the layoff, and I can’t disagree, so we need to look back to his previous best races. When winning the Classic in 2023, White Abarrio earned a 116 figure, and a 115 Prior to that winning the Whitney Stakes. However, it must be noted those were his fourth and fifth races of 2023. This year, despite that last effort, he may not be the same horse, especially around one turn, where he ran poorly in June in the Met Mile when fifth of six. Even when winning at this seven-furlong trip early in 2023, White Abarrio ran fast enough to earn a 106 figure, which is appropriate for this grade 3 level, but in no way does that make him the standout his low odds make it appear he is.

Far more value on win bets and other wagers revolves around Illuminare (9) and Mufasa (6), who have a combined record of 13 wins in 18 races, including five wins in seven races at this distance.

Illuminare (9) is a three-year-old who won the first two races of his career this spring and summer, both at seven furlongs and in powerful fashion. After two months off he finished fourth in a stakes race at that same distance, then he ran the best race of his career last month in New York, earning a 103 figure he’s highly likely to improve upon in his third start off a layoff. Additionally, Super Chow is a need the lead type drawn in the three post and will go for the front from the start, allowing Illuminare to take a great stalking trip and get first run on the lead when Super Chow tires. Likely to be ignored in the wagering as he’s never won a stakes race, Illuminare is definitely a horse to consider as a top win contender in this year’s Mr. Prospector.

Mufasa (6) imported to the U.S. this past June after amassing an eight for 10 record in his native Chile. After he needed a race on June 30 following almost eight months off, Mufasa returned to his winning ways, at this seven-furlong trip, with a strong 108 figure effort. Six weeks later he won the identical (to this race) Vosburgh Stakes, easily by four lengths with a 104 figure. Stretched out to two turns and moved way up in class, he finished 11^th of 13 in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile last month and that effort can be completely ignored. Returning to the grade 3 level and seven furlongs, Mufasa also has a stalking style like Illuminare and should get a great trip from just off the pace before rallying for another “A” effort good enough to win.

For minor awards, possibly second or third place positions on exacta and trifecta tickets there are a trio of horses to consider. Playmea Tune (1) won the similar Bold Venture Stakes in August but on the all-weather track at Woodbine. He’s never run on dirt but has won three of five and fits with these. Super Chow (3) gets very brave when allowed an easy lead, such when winning the similar Toboggan Stakes in February at this trip. He’s never finished worse than third in six races at Gulfstream Park and could add to that record. Little Vic (8) won the 2023 Tom Foll Stakes at six furlongs and has won at this seven-furlong trip, as well as won a classified allowance race one before last with an effort that may help him to hit the board here.

Bets:

Win Bets – I’m confident both Illuminare (9) and Mufasa (6) will offer more than good value above their minimum odds of 3 to 1 (for a win bet), I am going to bet both at that threshold or higher.

Exacta Bets: Illuminare (9), Mufasa (6) over Playmea Tune (1), Super Chow (3), Mufasa (6), Little Vic (8), Illuminare (9) and White Abarrio (10).

Because we should not bet White Abarrio (10) to win at prohibitively low odds, we can play an exacta or trifecta instead of a win bet, as follows:

White Abarrio (10) over Playmea Tune (1), Super Chow (3), Mufasa (6), Little Vic (8) and Illuminare (9).