Race 8 at Santa Anita | Sunday, December 28 | Post Time 5:43 PM Eastern

La Brea Stakes – Grade 1| Purse $300,000 | Seven Furlongs | Fillies, Three Years Old

Top winning contenders are Magnificat (10), Formula Rossa (9)

Other Contenders: Five G (3), Artisma (4), Silent Law (11)

Analysis and Contenders:

Magnificat (10) finished second in her career on August 29, then won her second start on October 25. She ran fast, posting similar 93 and 92 Equibase Speed Figures in her first two races. Those figures were comparable to the 94 figure that Formula Rossa (9) won her maiden. Magnificat earned her second victory on November 16 with a 98 figure, the fastest tied (with Silent Law) of anyone in the field. She is trained by Richard Mandella, the Hall of Fame trainer who won the 2024 La Brea (Kopion). Mandella knows this filly has the goods, and she could win again to add to Mandella's record of wins this year.

Formula Rossa (9) won her first career win by four lengths, then won her second race by six lengths, posting figures of 94 and 104. She faced older horses at Rancho Bernardo on August 24 and finished behind Sweet Azteca, a more mature five-year-old mare with seven wins in nine races. Formula Rossa earned a 96 figure, and after three months at the end of her sophomore season, she continues to improve. With Mike Smith guiding her career win and taking over after her previous second-place finish, she could put in a top effort to win the La Brea.

Like Formula Rossa, Magnificat has run her last two races against three-year-olds and older horses. Especially in races like the La Brea and the Malibu Stakes (for males), where seven winners have combined to win 10 races over the past five years, this gives an edge to these two top contenders.

Five G (3) won the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks in March, so she fits well at this grade 1 race. However, she has been off for nine months. Her best effort was a 97-figure win, and she should be much faster than she was in the spring. But other horses have run between 93 and 98 more recently, and her starting odds are 3 to 1. I will use her in exactas, but not as a wager to win.

Artisma (4) won her debut in November 2024, then finished second by a head in the Sana Ynez Stakes in February at this distance. She has run four more races since, all seconds, and posted strong figures of 95, 96, and 97, with her last by a neck over Magnificat, for which she will use blinkers to help. Since I believe Magnificat is a contender, this filly is definitely one to watch, especially at 15 to 1.

Silent Law (11) has also been a bridesmaid, with three wins after winning her first and second wins. She is one of Baffert's three entries - Usha (5) and Brilliantly (6) - to get the trainer's third win in this stake after winning in 2022 (Fun to Dream) and 2023 (Kalypso). She has starting odds of 10/1 and is considered an interesting contender.

Bets:

Wins: Magnificat (10) should be at fair odds of 4 to 1 or higher.

Formula Rossa (9) should be at fair odds of 3 to 1 or higher.

I might also consider Artisma (4) and Silent Law (11) at 8 to 1 odds or higher.

Exactas options:

Box: Magnificat (10), Formula Rossa (9), Five G (3), Artisma (4), Silent Law (11), Magnificat (10),

Formula Rossa (9) over Magnificat (10), Formula Rossa (9), Five G (3), Artisma (4), Silent Law (11)

Magnificat (10), Formula Rossa (9) over Magnificat (10), Formula Rossa (9), Five G (3), Artisma (4), Silent Law (11) Magnificat (10), Formula Rossa (9)

Magnificat (10), Formula Rossa (9), Five G (3), Artisma (4), Silent Law (11) over Magnificat (10), Formula Rossa (9)