Race 9 at Gulfstream Park | Saturday February 10 | Post Time 4:06 PM Eastern

Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint Stakes | Purse $125,000 | Five Furlongs o Turf | Four Year Olds and Upward

Analysis and top win contenders:

Eamonn (6) is very consistent, having finished first or second in 13 of 29 races, including 10 of 23 on grass. Better still, he’s been first or second in eight of 13 turf races at Gulfstream. He’s run very short races on grass like this one just a few times, with two wins and a third place finish from his last four tries. One of those came in a handicap race at Gulfstream Park last May not too much different from this one. In that race, Eamonn rallied from eighth in a field nine, was seven paths wide on the turn, and to use the chart caller’s words “surged” to the front in the late stages. That effort earned a very strong 93 Equibase Speed Figure but the horse ran even better, and faster two races later in August when winning the Select Stakes at a similar distance on grass, once again rallying from next to last to win. That effort earned a career best 106 figure which is on par with the best efforts of any horse in the field, except Panter Island (4) (who I’ll get to shortly). Rested from October to New Year’s Eve last year, Eamonn finished fast from seventh to third in the Janus Stakes and was gaining strongly at the end. This early pace scenario in this field benefits Eamonn once more, with That’s Right (3), Hope in Him (5) and Carotari (7) all being NEED-the-LEAD types with only one way to go from the moment the gate opens. With Javier Castellano getting on for the first time and with two very strong half-mile workouts coming into the race, as well as with a strong pace to set up his late kick, Eamonn, who opens at nine to two odds, gets top billing.

Heaven Street (1) is another to be considered strongly and who opens at decent odds, six to one to be exact. He’s won five of 15 career races on turf including the VERY LAST time he ran at this trip, last October, when he rallied from fourth to win by a neck, after battling nose and nose for the final eighth of a mile. His two races since are irrelevant as they were on a different surface so back on the turf, Heaven Street may be the type to get first run on a trio of “early” speed types mentioned previously and perhaps hold off the late kick of Eamonn for the win.

Panther Island (4) has the same running style as Heaven Street, evidenced by his win in the similar Janus Stakes on December 31. In that race he relaxed in fourth of eight in the early stages, moved off the rail from third in the stretch and got up to win by just under a length. That effort earned a career-best, and field high 114 Equibase Speed Figure which wins if repeated. However, horses don’t always run the same way twice in a row and before that, even though winning, Panther Island earned a 100 figure not superior to the 106 best Eamonn has earned nor the 100 figure Heaven Street earned last summer on the grass in New York. That being said, with six wins in 10 career races and with a sizzling half-mile workout in the books since his last race, Panther Island would be no surprise winning his third race in a row, and his second stakes race in a row. 

Note about the seven to five morning line favorite Carotari (7). Although he’s won 10 of 34 and banked more than three-quarters of a million dollars, including when second in the 2023 Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint, he’s still a need-the-lead type with at least two others of the same ilk in the field. Last year he earned a 108 figure in this race and he enters this year’s race off a runner-up effort following nearly six months off so has room to improve. Nevertheless, he does not have the high probability to win as suggested by his low starting odds and it is best to look to others for win bets, but perhaps to use him on some exacta tickets given the value of a couple the other win contenders.

Bets:

Win: Both Eamonn (6) and Heaven Street (1) can be considered for win bets at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

Exactas:

Box Heaven Street (1), Panther Island (4) and Eamonn (6)

Also these two sets of bets below which are designed to maximize profit by keying on the two higher odds contenders:

Eamonn (6) over Heaven Street (1), Panther Island (4), Carotari (7)

Heaven Street (1), Panther Island (4), Carotari (7) over Eamonn (6)

Heaven Street (1) over Panther Island (4), Eamonn (6), Carotari (7)

Panther Island (4), Eamonn (6), Carotari (7) over Heaven Street (1)