Race 12 at Fair Grounds | Saturday, February 14 | Post Time 6:30 PM Eastern

Risen Star Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $500,000 | One Mile and One Eighth | Three Year Olds

Winning contenders are: Golden Tempo (2), Paladin (4), and Carson Street (3)

Analysis and Contenders:

Win contenders and analysis:

Golden Tempo (2) and Paladin (4) are the only recent stakes winners. I think Golden Tempo will likely be a better value as a win bet, whereas Paladin is likely to be the public favorite. Golden Tempo won both his races, including the Lecomte Stakes(January 17). In both races, Golden Tempo started in 10^th, rallied to fourth at the eighth pole, and in the Lecomte,he inhaled past the three horses in front of him, earning an 85 Equibase Speed Figure. Golden Tempo won the Lecomte this year and can win the Risen Star, as horses from the Lecomte running in the Risen Star have won in 2025, 2022, 2021, 2020 (there were two divisions), and 2019.

Paladin (4) won both his races, although in his first career start, he actually finished second but was awarded the win when the first-place finisher was disqualified. In his second race, the Remsen Stakes on December 6, Paladin won, earning a 96 figure. Finishing second in the Remsen was Renegade, who was the disqualified winner of Paladin’s debut. Last weekend, Renegade improved and won the Sam F. Davis Stakes. However, among the last 10 Remsen winners, only Dornoch (the Fountain of Youth Stakes) and Sierra Leone have won twice in their three-year debut races, with Sierra Leone winning the 2024 Risen Stakes and being trained by Chad Brown, who is also training Paladin. So, with Paladin running after winning in December and Golden Tempo winning in January, I am taking Paladin for my win bet, but I will use both in exactas.

Carson Street (3) has improved over his last two races, winning at Fair Grounds on December 4, earning an 80 figure, then earning an 84 in the Lecomte. In the Lecomte, Carson Street stalked in third early, then moved to second, and took the lead at the three-quarters, where he extended his lead by a half-length at the start of the final eighth, but he could not maintain it and finished third behind Golden Tempo by a neck, a third, and a quarter-length. He should improve again today, and if his odds are nearly the 15 to 1, he was in the Lecomte, he could be a good win wager and should also be used in exactas and trifectas.

Bets:

Wins bets: I would consider Golden Tempo (2) and Paladin (4) at fair odds of 2 or 1 or higher.

I may consider Carson Street (3) at odds of 4 to 1 or higher.

Exactas:

Box Golden Tempo (2) and Paladin (4), and also box Golden Tempo (2), Paladin (4), and Carson Street (3).