Race 14 at Fair Grounds | Saturday, February 17 | Post Time 7:17 PM Eastern

Risen Star Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $400,000 | One Mile and One Eighth | Three Year Olds

Analysis and top win contenders:

Resilience (10) last ran on January 1 so ticks the box about recency, as compared to Sierra Leone (4) (December 2), Honor Marie (3) and Real Men Violin (6) (November 25). Although 2016 Risen Star Stakes winner Gun Runner (who has two sons represented in this race in Sierra Leone and Hall of Fame {7}) won this race after a fourth place finish in the Kentucky Jockey Club the previous fall, all of the other winners in the last 10 years raced no more than six weeks earlier. Resilience is trained by Bill Mott, who won this race in 2020 with Modernist, who like Resilience had earned his first win just prior to the race. A Hall-of-Fame trainer, Mott has also had success in stakes races with three year olds off their maiden wins in recent history as a Race Lens query shows he has won four stakes races in 19 starts over the last five years with horses fitting the same pattern as Resilience, with three other horses having finished second. As to the horse himself, Resilience earned a career-best 91 Equibase Speed Figure when winning around two turns on January 1. To put that into perspective, Smarty Jones Stakes winner Catching Freedom (8) earned a 97 figure on the same day while making his third career start in a two turn race. The outside post, which might normally be a concern in a two-turn race, is not in this case as there is a long run to the first turn which will allow Resilience to get closer to the rail and gain good early position without losing too much ground on the turn. Considering Resilience is making his third career start in a two turn race in the Risen Star, we can assume strong improvement is forthcoming similar to the way Catching Freedom improved in his third career start in the Smarty Jones, and that is why I think the colt can post the upset in this race.

Catching Freedom (8) began his career in a one mile race (around one turn) in October and won easily to earn an 85 Equibase Speed Figure, improving to an 88 figure although fourth when sent two turns for the first time the following month. Then in his next start, the Smarty Jones Stakes, Catching Freedom improved considerably to a career-best 97 figure. Comparing that effort and figure to the other top contenders in the race, Honor Marie earned a 98 figure winning the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last November, Sierra Leone earned a 99 figure when coming up a nose shy of winning the Remsen Stakes in December, and Track Phantom (11) earned a 100 figure winning the Gun Runner Stakes in December before a 93 figure winning the Lecomte. Catching Freedom (as well as Resilience) has a running style which fits the likely early pace scenario of this race as well. This is because Track Phantom has been in front after three quarters of a mile in his last four races (including both stakes wins) and draws the 11 post, requiring him to use a lot of early speed to get to the rail before the first turn. With Awesome Ruta (2) and Bee Dancer (12) both stretching out to two turns from much shorter races, they will likely want the front as well, as might Cardinale (9), who nearly lead from start to finish in his win last month. All those horses vying for the lead should benefit Catching Freedom nicely, just like in the Smarty Jones, in which he rallied from eighth of nine early to win. As such, Catching Freedom is a strong contender to earn his second stakes win in a row.

Hall of Fame (7) is trained by Steve Asmussen, who also saddles Track Phantom and who saddled 2022 Risen Star winner Epicenter. Hall of Fame may lack the experience of many of the other entrants in this race, having only run twice, but he fits on many counts. First, he’s a son of Gun Runner, who won the race in 2016 and who was also trained by Asmussen. Second, Hall of Fame earned a 98 figure winning by 10 lengths at Fair Grounds in a two-turn race on January 20. That effort puts the colt squarely in the picture here if repeated or improved upon so he rounds out the three top contenders to win this year’s Risen Star.

There are a quartet of horses which some bettors may favor, consisting of Honor Marie (3), Real Men Violin (6), Sierra Leone (4) and Track Phantom (11). Although all appear capable of running competitively by repeating their best efforts, I can also make the case that since few horses in recent history have won this race after having been off for more than six weeks, and as witnessed recently in the Holy Bull Stakes with Fierceness, they may not be capable of running well enough to win. Specifically, Sierra Leone earned a 99 figure when coming up a nose short in the Remsen, Honor Marie earned a 98 figure winning the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, while Real Men Violin earned a 95 figure when second in that race and Track Phantom earned a 100 figure winning the Gun Runner Stakes in December before a winning the Lecomte Stakes with a 93 figure.

Bets:

Win: I feel pretty strongly all three top win contenders – Resilience (10), Catching Freedom (8) and Hall of Fame (7) should be considered for win bets at odds of about 7 to 2 or more. I would not hesitate to bet two of the three, which have the highest odds near post time, to win.

It is highly likely Resilience (10) will reach that threshold, and possible one or both of the other two will as well considering Track Phantom (10) will be favored in spite of a disadvantageous outside post and other early speed in the field.

Exactas:

Box Hall of Fame (7), Catching Freedom (8) and Resilience (10)

Hall of Fame (7), Catching Freedom (8) and Resilience (10) over Honor Marie (3), Sierra Leone (4), Real Men Violin (6), Hall of Fame (7), Catching Freedom (8), Resilience (10) and Track Phantom (11).

You can also play the above ticket as a $0.50 minimum trifecta, using the same horses in third as are listed in second, for a cost of $45 if all the horses run.