Race 10 at Oaklawn | Saturday February 24 | Post Time 5:45 PM Eastern

Razorback Handicap– Grade 3 | Purse $600,000 | One Mile and One Sixteenth | Four Year Olds and Upward

Analysis and top win contenders:

Note: Ain’t Life Grand will not run as he is opting for a race on Sunday February 25 instead per his trainer.

This is a phenomenal betting race if for no other reason that there are 12 lined up and the morning line favorite opens at 9 to 2. There are only a couple of the dozen who have a pretty low probability to win as compared to the rest, leaving a lot of money making opportunity with horses that may go to post at 10 to 1 or more but who would be great bets at around four to one odds.

One of those is Bolzy (13), who gets an outside post but who has shown enough tactical speed that I believe jockey Arrieta will have him in the top five before the first turn and not so wide as to compromise his chances.

Before I go on, I need to discuss the early pace in the race, which favors the stalkers and closers due to there being a trio of horses likely to vie for the early lead and be susceptible to being passed late. Frosted Departure (2) has gone for the lead in both his recent route races but should not get an easy lead because both Octane (5) and Promise Keeper (10) both should try to get the lead early as well. Last month in the Sunshine Millions Classic Stakes at this distance, Octane led from the start before being beaten by a head on the wire in in most of his races where he’s had success he’s been on the lead or close up in second in after a half-mile has been run. Promise Keeper ADDED blinkers for his most recent race and led from start to finish, and in his other most recent best effort, last June, he led from the start then was beaten by a neck on the wire. 

Back to Bolzy (13), who is a lightly raced five year old with seven starts who didn’t even start until the age of four. He won at nine furlongs at Oaklawn last April in his fourth carer start, ran once after that when fifth, then took eight months off. He ran poorly at a mile off the layoff as might have been expected, but then in his second start back he ran the race of his life. That was also at Oaklawn, four weeks ago, where at this distance he stalked in third early then drew off late and cleared. The 107 Equibase Speed Figure earned is absolutely good enough to win this grade 3 race and it should be improved upon as well as this will be the horse’s third start off a layoff, often a peak effort in a horse’s form cycle. Since that race, Bolzy put in a spectacular workout which was the best of 73 on the day for a half-mile, signifying he is holding top form and can compete with these. Best of all he opens at 15 to 1 odds.

Magic Tap (8) opens at the lowest odds of a trio of top contenders, 9 to 2 to be exact, but is also a lightly raced horse, having run seven times the same as Bolzy. Only six of those have been two-turn races, and he’s won three of those as well as missed by a head in another. He closed his three year old campaign with 107, 104 and 102 figure efforts, then when coming back to the races after two months off on January 14 Magic Tap earned a 104 figure when rallying from fourth to the lead in the final eighth of a mile. That effort was here at Oaklawn, at nine furlongs, so the cut back to eight and one-half furlongs, combined with the colt making his second start off the rest, signifies an even better effort today.

Notary (11) just won by five lengths at the distance over the track in a 10 horse field. Although an allowance race, Notary earned a 111 figure which is absolutely the best in the field. He won in October before taking three months off then in spite of returning off a layoff in a route race on January 6, Notary was just a bit short of 100% fit as he rallied to lead in mid-stretch and was only beaten a length on the wire. Improving again in that most recent race, and with Esquivel up for both recent “A” efforts and riding back, Notary is also on a pattern to improve and his 10 to 1 starting odds are way out of line with his probability to succeed if he repeats or does improve off that last race on January 26.

Bets:

Win: We have a big opportunity for profit on win bets if the starting odds on Bolzy (13) and Notary (11) stay high, so I will plan to bet BOTH at odds of 4 to 1 or more. The same 4 to 1 minimum betting odds apply to Magic Tap (8), but we may be better served using him in the win position on exacta bets below although I wouldn’t argue with anyone who wanted to be Magic Tap to win.

Exactas:

Box Magic Tap (8), Notary (11) and Bolzy (13).

Trifecta:

Magic Tap (8), Notary (11) and Bolzy (13) over ALL over Magic Tap (8), Notary (11) and Bolzy (13).

When both the exacta and trifecta wagers above are played, we can win if any two of the three contenders finish first and second, OR first and third (with any of the others finishing second). If two of the three contenders finish first, second and third we win both bets.