Race 11 at Oaklawn Park | Saturday February 3 | Post Time 5:50 PM Eastern

Southwest Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $800,000 | One Mile and One Sixteenth | Three Year Olds

Analysis and top win contenders:

The starting favorites, Maycocks Bay (1) and Wynstock (5) both appear vulnerable and the early pace appears to be hotly contested and faster than average. Wynstock led start to finish in his only two routes, including the Los Al Futurity where he beat four other horses. Wynstock was not held in high regard in that race although trained by Baffert and even off a seven length maiden win in a route. His early/middle pace figures of 94, 86 suggest after gaining the lead by a length he then slowed down as no one was pressuring him. That won't be the case in this 12 horse field, particularly with Maycocks Bay having just led start to finish in a route and on the rail. Wynstock had the rail for both of his wins and now gets the 5 post so it will be harder for him to acquire the early lead as it appears he needs to do for his best. Otto the Conqueror (4) was only a half-length off the leader after a half-mile in the Springboard Mile, with a 113 early figure, and a 101 middle figure. Carbone (7) led start to finish in both starts, the most recent a mile at Oaklawn, with an 89 early figure and 85 middle figure. Otto the Conqueror, like Maycocks Bay, is drawn inside Wynstock in the gate. Neither Wynstock nor Maycocks Bay have shown any ability to come from off the pace and aren't the fastest early if Otto the Conqueror goes for the front. In any scenario I can envision, there are up to FOUR horses (Maycocks Bay, Otto the Conqueror, Wynstock and Carbone) who will want the lead and perhaps at any cost. As such, it appears the main contenders to win this race will be horse in mid-pack early, or perhaps even farther behind.

Common Defense (8) fits that bill nicely. He wasn’t bred to sprint so trainer Ken McPeek started him at a mile and one-sixteenth, here at Oaklawn on December 17, where Common Defense rallied nicely from fifth to get second. The winner was Lat Long, who recently ran okay when third in the Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds. In his second career start, Common Defense was also fifth after three quarters of a mile, this time rolling past the pacesetters to draw off easily at the end. Those two routes are a good foundation for this race, and a last out maiden winner early in their three year old campaign can win a Road to the Derby Stakes like this one. Notably, McPeek has done this before, three times to be exact, from 12 starts where he felt confident enough a three year old last out maiden winner was capable of winning a stakes. One of those wins came at Oaklawn in the 2022 Smarty Jones with Dash Attack, who like Common Defense had just won a route at Oaklawn in his prior race. As such, I think Common Defense can post the upset in this year’s Southwest Stakes.

Just Steel (11) stretched out to two turns for this year’s Smarty Jones Stakes on New Year’s Day and finished second. He did so after stalking the two pacesetters for the first three quarters of a mile, then moved to lead with an eighth of a mile to go. Although winner Catching Freedom out finished Just Steel, he was very game in battling with another horse to prevail for second by a head. Prior to the Smarty Jones, Just Steel won the Ed Brown Stakes in late November at six and one-half furlongs. Now making his second route start and second start at Oaklawn, a pretty compelling case can be made Just Steel is going to run even better than he did a little over four weeks ago and that gives him a solid shot to win this race.

Liberal Arts (6) is a bit of an enigma. He won the Street Sense Stakes at this distance when last seen but that was October 29 and over a sloppy track. He closed from last of five to pull away late and the pace wasn’t that hot so with a hot pace he could run even better. On the other hand, the other contenders all ran in the last five weeks so 10 weeks may put this colt at a disadvantage in spite of two excellent workouts in the last 10 days or so.

After those two top win contenders and a possible third contender, there are a number of horses which might compete but for various reasons seem a bit less probable to win as compared to the two above. One in particular I am absolutely going to use on exacta and trifecta tickets (in second and third) is Magic Grant (3), who opens at 30 to 1. He was finishing very well in the final yards of the Springboard Mile Stakes in December, won by Otto the Conqueror, and this being his second route, as well as with some tiring pacesetters in front of him, Magic Grant can hit the board at a big price.  Linebacker (9) appears similar to Magic Grant, not only because he opens at 30 to 1 but because he too is running in a route for only the second time in his career. He’s still winless in three starts BUT he finished nicely from ninth to second at Oaklawn on December 31, against a wire-to-wire winner and can run as well with a route race already under his belt and with a hot pace to make his late kick look good.

In addition to the pacesetters like Maycocks Bay (1), Otto the Conqueror (4), Wynstock (5) and Carbone (7), all who could stick around for a share, Mystik Dan (10), might also complete the exacta or trifecta.

Bets:

Win: Both Common Defense (8) (who opens at 15 to 1) and Just Steel (11) (who opens at 8 to 1) would be significant overlay win bets from my 4 to 1 fair odds if anywhere near their morning line odds, so WIN BETS on both appear in order.

Exactas:

Box Liberal Arts (6), Common Defense (8) and Just Steel (11).

Also well worth the risk considering all three top contenders open at 8 to 1 odds or higher is this exacta: Liberal Arts (6), Common Defense (8) and Just Steel (11) over Liberal Arts (6), Common Defense (8), Just Steel (11), Magic Grant (3), Otto the Conqueror (4), Wynstock (5), Carbone (7), Linebacker (9) and Mystic Dan (10).