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Keeneland Select

Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | February 4, 2023

Race 10 at Gulfstream Park | Saturday February 4 | Post Time 4:17 PM Eastern

Forward Gal Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $125,000 | Seven Furlongs | Fillies, Three Years Old

Top Contenders:

Twice as Sweet (2) has to get top billing among the three horses with the highest probability to win (in my opinion) as she opens at 10 to 1 odds. That’s in spite of her being one of just four horses among the 10 entered with a stakes win. Two of the other three earned those wins in restricted Florida sire stakes so she’s one of only two which have won an “open” stakes (the other being Red Carpet Ready). Twice as Sweet earned that win in November after a runner-up effort, win and another runner-up effort to start her career so showed a lot of talent to that point, particularly in the two wins when maturely relaxing off the pace early and running to the front late. In her only start since the win, at the end of December in a stakes at Fair Grounds, she was six paths wide into the stretch as she rallied from seventh of eighth and missed second by a pair of noses in another big effort as the winner had drawn off by three lengths. Tyler Gaffalione gets on and the filly earned a field high 91 Equibase Speed Figure in that Smart Halo Stakes win in November, which is the highest (fastest) figure in the field as well. Now making her first start as a three year old, she could blow past that effort and win this race in an upset.

Red Carpet Ready (8), as previously mentioned, is the only other “open” stakes winner in the field. She earned that win in the second start of her career, near the end of November, in the Fern Creek Stakes. Like Twice as Sweet, Red Carpet Ready showed maturity sitting off the pace then blasted home to win by three lengths. She was flattered by the runner-up, who came back to win, and with any improvement off the 88 figure earned and now as a newly turned three year old this gal could get the job done here.

Undervalued Asset (7) is the last of the three main win contenders but the one most likely to be bet down from her 7 to 2 starting odds. That’s because she’s trained by Chad Brown and ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr. She’s only run once, on November 10 of last year, but that was a strong eight length victory in which she was eased up late or could have won by more. Similar to Red Carpet Ready’s last race, Undervalued Asset earned an 87 figure and has every right to improve upon it in her first start as a three year old.

Win bets: Twice as Sweet (2) at 5 to 2 or more.

I might also consider a win bet on Red Carpet Ready (8) at 3 to 1 or more.  

Exactas:

Box Twice As Sweet (2), Undervalued Asset (7) and Red Carpet Ready (8)

Trifectas:

Twice As Sweet (2), Undervalued Asset (7) and Red Carpet Ready (8) over ALL over Twice As Sweet (2), Undervalued Asset (7) and Red Carpet Ready (8).

At the $0.50 minimum level the cost of the trifecta above is $18. We win if any two of the three finish first and third. This compliments the exacta where we win if any two of the three finish first and second. We win twice if all three finish in the top three.