Race11 at Tampa Bay Downs | Saturday, February 7 | Post Time 5:30 PM Eastern

Sam F. Davis Stakes | Purse $250,000 | One Mile and One Sixteenth | Three Year Olds

The top winning contender is Dr. Kapur (9)

Other contenders can be used in exacta: Confessional (1), Renegade (6), and The Puma (3)

Analysis and Contenders:

This is an unusual Sam F. Davis Stakes, where none of the nine horses have yet to win a two-turn race. That makes sense since many horses are just beginning to run longer distances on the Road to the Derby.

When I looked at the last 10 races of the horses in this race, I saw that five of the winners were leaders from start to finish. I look at the horses in this race, and only one horse, Dr. Kapur (9), has the early speed that the others have to catch.

Dr. Kapur (9) in his first career race on August 23. He led from the start, but finished second, beaten by just a neck. In his second start, in October, Dr. Kapur ran in the lead and won by nearly three lengths. That earned him a 90 Equibase Speed Figure, as good as the likely favorite, Renegade (6), whose best figure was 93. Off this win, Dr. Kapur was in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, where he went to the front and led for the first six furlongs, but the pace was too fast, and he faded to sixth.

Given two months off, Dr. Kapur could play “come and catch” me. His son, McKinzie, a first crop sire last year, has had five of 24 horses win stakes routes, including Baeza (who finished third in the 2025 Kentucky Derby and won the Pennsylvania Derby) and Chancer McPatrick (who finished second in the 2025 Tampa Bay Derby). Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. won the 2022 Holy Bull with White Abarrio, coming off a layoff in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (where he finished third), the same layoff Dr. Kapur is coming off.

Confessional (1) stretches to two sprints, with a win in October, earning the top Equibase Speed Figure (97). He took two and a half months off and ran on January 2, where he finished second. The winner of that race was Nearly, who won the Holy Bull Stakes last week. Trainer Brad Cox won the 2025 Sam F. Davis Stakes on John Hancock, off a sprint, and is doing the same with Confessional.

Renegade (6) won his first route in his second career start, but was disqualified for interference. Renegade was then in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes, where he made a bold move after a half mile, moving from sixth to third, a neck behind the leader, but finished second behind Paladin, and improved to 93 figures.

The Puma (3) is a maiden, but he ran well in his first career race, where he started slowly, last of eight horses, moved to fourth, then battled for the lead the last half mile to the stretch and finished second. Trainer Gustavo, who took Mage to win the 2023 Kentucky Derby, is a sharp trainer, and if he thinks The Puma should be in this race, we should consider it, particularly since he earned an 86 figure in his only race and should improve.

Bets:

Wins bets: Dr. Kapur (9) considered at fair odds of 3 and 1 or higher.

I also may be willing to bet The Puma (3) at odds of 5 to 1 or higher.

Exactas:

Dr. Kapur (9) over Confessional (1), Renegade (6), and The Puma (3)

Confessional (1), Renegade (6), and The Puma (3) over Dr. Kapur (9)