Race 13 at Fair Grounds | Saturday, January 17 | Post Time 7 PM Eastern

Lecomte Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $250,000 | One Mile and One-Sixteenth| Three Year Olds

Top winning contenders are Stop the Car (10), Thunder Buck (6), White Tiger (8)

Other contenders for second on exacta wagers: Chip Honcho (11), Ocelli (9), Crown the Buckeye (3)

Analysis and Contenders:

Stop the Car (10) has won both of his starts, first a sprint on October 24 and then a route on November 29. Only two other horses have two wins: Chip Honcho (11) and Crown the Buckeye (3), who finished first and third in the Gun Runner Stakes on December 20. However, even though they ran fast enough to be competitive, both slowed significantly in the last quarter and the final sixteenth, as they slowed from 35.6 mph to 32.5 mph and from 32 mph to 29.5 mph, making them vulnerable to being caught in the last furlong. Compared to Chip Honcho and Crown the Buckeye, in his previous race, Stop the Car moved from sixth to fourth, then second, to win, running 35.6 mph to 34 mph, and earning a 90 Equibase Speed Figure, the highest last race in the field. He is improving again, and he is one of three top contenders.

Thunder Buck (6) and White Tiger (8) both won their last races, and both will have top jockeys Saez and Ortiz, Jr., riding for Cox, who have ridden them in recent races. Both trainer/jockey combinations have an excellent 33% winning rate over the past three years. Thunder Buck rallied to win his second career start with a five-wide move from fifth position and clearly took the lead, earning an 87 figure. White Tiger led from the start by one length, or to one and a half lengths, until he was challenged by a head with a sixteenth remaining, fighting to win by half a length. He earned a solid 86 figure.

Chip Honcho (11), Ocelli (9), and Crown the Buckeye (3) are horses with a chance to finish second. In the Gun Runner, Crown the Buckeye took the lead at the start and was in front for the first mile of the race, which was a mile and one-sixteenth long, when Chip Honcho, who had been second at the beginning, overtook to win by three-quarters of a length. Chip Honcho earned an 89 figure, while Crown the Buckeye earned an 87, but as I mentioned, both slowed down in the last quarter and especially in the final sixteenth mile, where they ran 7.5 seconds and 7.7 seconds, compared to 6.5 seconds by Thunder Buck and White Tiger, which aren’t fast enough for either Chip Honcho or Crown the Buckeye in this year's Lecomte.

Ocelli (9) in his recent race improved after finishing eighth early, then rallied to second behind Thunder Buck and earned an 85 figure. He has a chance to finish second.

Bets:

Wins: Stop the Car (10) is considered at fair odds of 5 and 2 or better.

Thunder Buck (6) and White Tiger (8) should also consider fair odds of 3 to 1 or better.

Exacta options:

Box: Stop the Car (10), Thunder Buck (6), White Tiger (8)

Also: Stop the Car (10), Thunder Buck (6), White Tiger (8) over Stop the Car (10), Thunder Buck (6), White Tiger (8), Chip Honcho (11), Ocelli (9), Crown the Buckeye (3)