Race 12 at Fair Grounds | Saturday January 18 | Post Time 6:30 PM Eastern

Lecomte Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $250,000 | Three Year Olds | One Mile and One Sixteenth

Analysis and top contenders:

Innovator (1) is the horse the rest of the field will likely have to catch to win this year’s Lecomte Stakes. The son of 2020 Kentucky Derby winner Authentic has won just one of seven races to date but has finished second in four other races. Last summer when he was still a maiden and coming off a pair of runner-up efforts, Innovator ran in the Hopeful Stakes but was bumped hard at the break and did not get a good early position, losing any chance he had. Moved back to the maiden ranks in late November, Innovator ran too well to lose, coming up a head short on the wire and earning a strong 97 Equibase Speed Figure. The winner of that race was the highly regarded Barnes, who won the San Vicente Stakes on January 4 in only the second start of his career. Still very highly regarded by his Hall-of-Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas, who won the 2013 Lecomte with Oxbow, Innovator ran in the Advent Stakes on December 6, leading from the start and finishing second with a 95 figure. Returning three weeks later on December 29 and returned to the maiden ranks, Innovator sailed along on an easy early lead and held on by a neck to win, earning a career-best 101 figure which is the highest figure earned by any horse in this field. Drawing the ground saving rail for the Lecomte, Innovator is likely to be sent to the front as usual and could establish an easy early lead. Based on his pedigree, Innovator should have no problem running as well at this distance as he did in the shorter race last time out, because not only is he a son of a Derby winner, but his dam produced Carmel Road, who won at a mile then was second at this distance in the 2022 Los Alamitos Futurity. Given all the above, Innovator is the one to catch, and to beat, in this year’s Lecomte.

Disco Time (11) is unbeaten and untested in two races to date, the most recent of which earned a 96 figure. That effort, in a one-turn mile race at Churchill Downs at the end of November, is likely to be improved upon as he makes his third career start. Disco Time has drawn the 11 post for the Lecomte, which might be disadvantageous, but appears to have enough tactical speed to get a decent position before the first turn without losing too much ground. Per a Race Lens query, trainer Brad Cox has an extremely good record in dirt route stakes races for three-year-old males the past five years, winning 49 of 146 (34%). With the number one jockey for the barn, Florent Geroux, in the saddle, Disco Time appears to be a strong contender in this field.

Dapper Moon (9) shipped in from Kentucky to prep for this race last month. In his first start over the track, on December 19, Dapper Moon relaxed in third in the early stages of a six-furlong sprint then moved to lead easily, earning a career-best 98 figure in the process. Prior to that he finished fourth in three straight top races for two-year-olds, including the Street Sense Stakes at this distance. In that race, Dapper Moon began fifth then moved up aggressively to lead by a half-length with an eighth of a mile to go, before tiring. Now that he’s in winning form, and with a 98 last race figure very close to the 101 top contender Innovator earned in his most recent start, Dapper Moon must be respected when considering our wagers in this race.

Built (13) took advantage of the fact betting favorite Admiral Dennis stumbled at the start in the Gun Runner Stakes at Fair Grounds four weeks ago, establishing an easy lead in a field of five and extending his margin throughout the race. The 95 figure was a career best and a nice improvement off the 88-figure earned two months earlier, so can be improved upon again, which makes the colt a contender. On the other hand, Built appears unlikely to be anywhere near the early lead in this race on fractions of 24.6, 49.2 and 1:13.6 as he set in the Gun Runner. Built drew the rail in the Gun Runner and gets the 13 post for the Lecomte, which could be disadvantageous as he will likely try for a good early position before the first time but will find himself going wide. However, if he can establish a mid-pack position without losing too much ground, Built could be competitive once again.

Tough Catch (8) is trained by Dallas Stewart the same as Dapper Moon and just won the six-furlong Sugar Bowl Stakes after a pair of runner-up finishes in sprint stakes. He opens at 10 to 1 and coming off 96 and 90 figures could get a piece of the purse once again. Similarly, Magnitude (4) is a horse to consider for exacta tickets, as both his two-turn races have been good ones. He won in November at the distance with an 89 figure then although no match for lone front runner Built last month in the Gun Runner, he held his own. Jose Ortiz stays aboard, and he could get a good stalking trip from the inside and be in the money again.

Bets:

Win Bets – There should be superb value on both Innovator (1) and on Disco Time (11) and I would not hesitate betting either, or both, to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

Dapper Moon (9) may also offer odds well above the 4 to 1 I think are fair for considering a win bet (as he opens at 12 to 1) so I might consider a win bet on him as well.

Built (13) starts at 3 to 1 odds too low to consider for a win bet in this field with multiple contenders, particularly from an extreme outside post.

If any of the three top contenders should scratch, I might consider Tough Catch (8) at odds of 5 to 1 or more.

Exacta: I think the key to profit lies in Innovator (1) finishing first or second, as he’s done in five of his last six races. Therefore, the best exacta is a “Key Box” with Innovator in both the first and second positions, with a few other horses, as follows:

Innovator (1) over Magnitude (4), Tough Catch (8), Dapper Moon (9), Disco Time (11) and Built (13).

Magnitude (4), Tough Catch (8), Dapper Moon (9), Disco Time (11) and Built (13) over Innovator (1).

I could also see playing these exactas:

Box Innovator (1), Dapper Moon (9), Disco Time (11) and Built (13).

Box Innovator (1) Magnitude (4), Dapper Moon (9), Disco Time (11) and Built (13).

We can substitute Touch Catch (8) in the exacta boxes above if one of the other contenders should scratch.