Race 10 at Oaklawn Park | Saturday January 25 | Post Time 5:10 PM Eastern

Southwest Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $1 Million | Three Year Olds | One Mile and One Sixteenth

Analysis and top contenders:

American Promise (8) just broke his maiden, in his sixth career start, but he did it at Oaklawn and at the distance of this race. Apprentice Tyler Bacon, who Hall-of-Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas has had a lot of faith in, rode the son of Triple Crown winner Justify marvelously and the colt earned a career-best 102 Equibase Speed Figure which is the second highest/fastest last race figure in the field. Three races back and with the addition of blinkers, American Promise improved markedly when stalking in second for the first six furlongs, moving up to lead and battling down to the wire. He regressed one month later but rebounded nicely in that race four weeks ago. Considering the horse’s pace and final figure combination of 102, 102, it is apparent American Promise DID NOT slow down in the stretch, and as those “go to the lead” tactics worked so well last time out they are likely to be used again. Considering there are few horses in the field who have shown an interest in leading early, American Promise should be in the top two or three entering the first turn, and if he improves off his last effort, he can post the mild upset in this year’s Southwest Stakes as he opens at 6 to 1 odds.

Sandman (6) is the horse mostly likely to run down American Promise if that one can’t lead all the way. Like American Promise, Sandman won at Oaklawn last month and that experience could be invaluable in this situation. His win came in an allowance race so was his second victory in five races. Between his maiden win and the one last month, Sandman finished fifth in the Iroquois Stakes (around one turn) and third in the Street Sense Stakes at the distance of the Southwest. Torres rode Sandman for the first time last month and rode him exceptionally well by getting the colt to relax until the far turn when he moved up from fifth to second, then easily overtook the leader. Earning a career-best 97 Equibase Speed Figure that he can improve upon, this half-brother to multiple stakes winner She Can’t Sing ($883K in earnings) has a nice shot to win as well.

As to the likely favorites Patch Adams (7), who starts at 5 to 2 odds, there is no doubt his 10 length win on November 30 (when last seen) was impressive, but it was in a seven furlong race. Although he’s bred to run well at the distance, that race may have been an outlier in terms of the 110 Equibase Speed Figure. Additionally, when looking at Brad Cox’s record, which overall is phenomenal in the last few years, the one area where it is not is horses in graded stakes stretching out to routes as three-year-olds, which is just 2-2-4 from 16 starts the last three years, including a sixth-place finish in the 2023 Southwest. So, sure, Patch Adams could be a top Derby contender this year, but he may not have the edge in this field some bettors think he has.

Similarly, Gaming (2) opens at 2 to 1 odds, is no standout at all. He won the first two starts of his career, both around one turn, including the Del Mar futurity, but DID NOT improve around two turns. He ran second around the track to his stablemate (trained by Bob Baffert) Citizen Bull in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, then he ran evenly when third for the last eighth of a mile in the Los Alamitos Futurity last month. His best effort, that in the Juvenile, earned a 103 figure, which is not superior in any way to the 102 American Promise earned much more recently. As he is trained by Baffert, Gaming will take a lot of bettors’ money, and that is fine with me as I will be taking a stand against him as a win contender.

Honorable mention goes to Publisher (2), who opens at 12 to 1 because he’s still a maiden after four races. However, he finished second to American Promise last month with a career best 100 figure and may have a chance to be part of the exacta. Also Speed King (10), who opens at 15 to 1, gets a poor post but improved to a 95 figure in only the second start of his career last month when second to Coal Battle in the Springboard Mile Stakes, with the winner having come back to win the Smarty Jones Stakes last month at Oaklawn.

Bets:

Win Bets – I will not hesitate to bet BOTH American Promise (8) and Sandman (6) to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more.  

Exactas:

American Promise (8) and Sandman (6) over Gaming (1), Publisher (2), Sandman (6), Patch Adams (7), American Promise (8) and Speed King (10)