Race 10 at Oaklawn Park | Saturday January 28 | Post Time 5:57 PM Eastern

Southwest Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $750,000 | One Mile and One Sixteenth | Three Year Olds

Pace Scenario Analysis:

Most races go through the favorite, or likely favorite, and this is no exception. Arabian Knight (6) opens as the prohibitive even money favorite on the strength of his seven length win in his November 7 debut at Keeneland. He led from the start and won easily with a 102 Equibase Speed Figure which is stakes quality, considering for example Forte earned the same 107 figure winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile that weekend and had run a few more times as compared to Arabian Knight. However, there is a valuable handicapping adage that we should not bet a low odds favorite doing something for the first time, and that is exactly what is happening in the Southwest, where Arabian Knight is trying two turns for the same time. Coupled with the fact he led from start to finish in his only race and is one of only two horses to have run once, and with the fact Corona Bolt (2) also led from start to finish in a sprint in his most recent race, there are considerable questions as to how fast and contested the early pace is going to be. Toss in recent wire-to-wire winner (around two turns) Jace’s Road (3) and possibly Frosted Departure (5), who stretches out from sprints and pressed the pace by a head in second through a 45.2 half-mile, nearly the same half-mile fraction Arabian Knight and Corona Bolt ran in their races, and it appears highly likely Arabian Knight is going to have his hands full and is a very poor bet at low odds to boot. With that in mind, I am taking a stand against Arabian Knight and if he beats me, he beats me.

Contenders:

Sun Thunder (1) is another recent maiden winner, but he has three things going for him which Arabian Knight does not. The first is ha’s run twice, finishing third in his seven furlong debut in late November before winning on New Years’ Eve. Second, his win came in a two-turn race and it came here at Oaklawn. Third, he rallied from eighth of 12 in that race, made a powerful move to go from fourth on the turn to be in front by four lengths, then coasted home. He came back to put in a strong half-mile workout (47.2) which was the best of 92 on the day, telling us he’s in fine physical condition. Taking back from the ground saving rail as up to four of the others all go for the lead or press the horses on the lead, Sun Thunder can get a dream trip and post the upset in this race with logical improvement off his last start.

Hit Show (8) is one of three in the race trained by Brad Cox, the other two being the speedy Corona Bolt (2) and possibly just as speedy Jace’s Road (3). Of the trio, Hit Show has by far the best chance to succeed in my opinion as he too won a mile race at Oaklawn last month. He is making the fourth start of his career, and has improved his Equibase Figures in each start, from 76 to 82 to 89. That last figure is a bit higher than the 76 figure Sun Thunder earned in his maiden win but maidens can markedly improve in their second starts, like Hit Shot did by six points in his second start. With the pattern suggesting further improvement, Hit Show has as good of a chance to win as Sun Thunder, with his outside post being the only minor issue. In his two-turn win last month, Hit Show rallied from fifth so he too should appreciate the hot and contested pace of this race, and he too put in a big workout (second best of 46) coming into the race.

Red Route One (7) rounds out the horses I’ll be looking at for win bets in this race. He started his career on grass last summer, in a two-turn race at Saratoga, finishing fifth, but won a two-turn race on grass at Kentucky Downs pretty impressively in career start number 2. Moved to dirt and right into top company, Red Route One rallied from 12th of 14 to finish third behind Forte in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland, at 60 to 1 odds. After a poor start on a sloppy track, he ran similarly okay when fourth in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at the end of November. That has since turned out to be a KEY (productive) RACE, with winner Instant Coffee returning from a rest similar to the one Red Route One is coming back from and winning the Lecomte Stakes last weekend and with the seventh place finisher having come back to win as well. Most notably, Red Route One is a son of Gun Runner, whose first crop of three year olds last year was phenomenal, producing Cyberknife, Early Voting, Echo Zulu and Taiba. As such, Red Route One has a big shot in this race and moving forward on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

Win bets: Among the three contenders: Sun Thunder (1), Red Route One (7) and Hit Show (8), all opening at 10/1 (because Arabian Knight opens at 1/1), I will be TWO of them at odds of 4 to 1 or more.

Exactas:

Box Sun Thunder (1), Red Route One (7) and Hit Show (8).

Optionally, you can play a small (perhaps $1 or $2) exacta using the horses with early speed who might hang on in second as well, such as:

Sun Thunder (1), Red Route One (7) and Hit Show (8) over Sun Thunder (1), Corona Bolt (2), Jace’s Road (3), Frosted Departure (5), Arabian Knight (6), Red Route One (7) and Hit Show (8).