Race 8 at Aqueduct | Saturday January 4 | Post Time 3:39 PM Eastern

Jerome Stakes | Purse $150,000 | Three Year Olds | One Mile

Analysis and top contenders:

The Jerome Stakes kicks off the Road to the Wood Memorial in April on the New York Circuit, and technically the New York Road to the Kentucky Derby as well. Similar races today are the Mucho Macho Man Stakes at Gulfstream Park and the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park. The Jerome drew a field of eight and it appears up to FOUR of the eight are absolute need-the-lead types of which at least two, perhaps three, will battle for the lead on faster than average fractions and set up the stalkers and closers. Two of the four who appear to only be capable of running their best only when on the lead are Enduring Spirit (1) and Mansetti (2), who draw the inside posts and wear blinkers, so they will have to go fast early. The other two are Cyclone State (6), who led from start to finish four weeks ago at this mile trip at Aqueduct, and Georgia Magic (5), who won his only race (also at Aqueduct) leading from start to finish.

All that early pace sets up a trio of horses nicely, consisting of Ican (3), Studlydoright (7) and McAfee (8).

I’ll start with Ican (3), who finished second to Cyclone State four weeks ago when that one got an uncontested lead he will not get today. In addition, Ican stumbled badly at the start and lost about three lengths, so his effort was impressive. He’s a half-brother to Reasoned Analysis, who won the 2024 Bay Shore Stakes on the circuit, and we can expect a huge effort with a clean break in this race.

Studlydoright (7) is already proven at the level, having finished second in the Laurel Futurity in September and most importantly, after the addition of blinkers, winning the Nashua Stakes in November at the same one turn mile trip at Aqueduct. He tried two turns and the longer distance of a mile and one-eighth, as well as much tougher company, in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes four weeks ago and didn’t do much running when fourth of six. Back around one turn and dropping in class Studlydoright has every right to run as well as he did when winning the Nashua.

McAfee (8) has run just twice but both were big efforts. He won his debut in November easily by three lengths in a field of 11 then when stretched out to this one turn mile trip near the end of November he rallied gamely from fourth to miss by a head on the wire. On the other hand, the winner, who McAfee was even with at the half-mile mark, went wide on the turn while McAfee got a rail trip. He’s trained by Richard Dutrow the same as Ican and is likely to be more heavily bet than his stablemate because he’s a half-brother to Thorpedo Anna.

Bets:

Win Bets – I want to consider Ican (3) for a win bet first, at odds of 5 to 2 or more. Both Studlydoright (7) and McAfee (8) can be considered for win bets around the same 5 to 2 odds, but I don’t think either will reach that threshold. If so, I would consider the one at the highest odds for a second win bet.

Exacta and Trifecta Bets: Box Ican (3), Studlydoright (7) and McAfee (8).