Race 11 at Monmouth | Saturday, July 19 | Post Time 5:09 PM Eastern

United Nations Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $600,000 | One Mile and Three Eighths on Turf | Three Year Olds and Upward

Top Contenders to win: Redistricting (3), Rebel Red (7), Get Smokin (10)

Horses to consider for exacta and trifecta tickets: Corruption (1), Limited Liability (4), Grand Sonata (5), Starting Over (8), Hush of a Storm (12)

Analysis and win contenders:

In a very deep and talented field of 12 there appears to be only three horses with very little probability to win – Tawny Port (2), Major Dude (9) and Lord Eddard Stark (11). I’ll add Vote No (6) to the list as well as he was a claiming level horse as recently as March and appears a cut below the top contenders.

Among the rest, Redistricting (3) is the one we need to consider first, not only because it appears trainer Chad Brown pointed him to this race by giving him a prep over the course last month when winning the Monmouth Stakes in “ridden out” fashion, but also because he may come in a bit under the radar compared to the main contenders, having never run this far. In nine career starts, Redistricting has only run farther than nine furlongs once, and that was a poor seventh place effort at a mile one-quarter in the summer of 2023 in the Belmont Derby. However, he wasn’t ready for graced stakes back then in only the second start of his career, but he’s matured nicely since then, and he fits at this grade 2 level with runner-up efforts in the Knickerbocker Stakes and Seabiscuit Handicap last fall. His pedigree suggests he will love this distance, as sire Kingman produced Serve the King, who won the similar 11-furlong Red Smith Stakes. With Prat aboard last month for the Monmouth Stakes win and back in the saddle today, Redistricting could take a huge step forward and add to Brown’s strong record of having won the United Nations four times in the last nine years he has had at least one entrant. That last two of those wins, in 2022 and in 2023, came with Prat in the saddle as well.

Rebel Red (7) has won three of nine since coming to the U.S. in April of 2024, ignoring the Louisville Stakes in May where he clipped heels and fell. He rebounded off that effort in a BIG way when winning the Chorleywood Stakes at this 11-furlong trip on the same day Redistricting won at Monmouth. Rallying seven paths wide on the far turn, Rebel Red passed seven horses with ease to win. The only other time he ran this distance came in the Red Smith last fall where Rebel Red led by a head with an eighth of a mile to go and was game to the wire, settling for third but just a nose behind runner-up Limited Liability (4). That effort or the one last month if repeated in this race gives Rebel Red a decent shot to succeed.

Get Smokin (10) won the 2024 United Nations in his second start after returning from a nine-month layoff and prepping in the Eclipse Stakes at Woodbine. This year he’s returning from nearly six months off and prepped in the Eclipse. He is reunited with De La Cruz, who as up for the win last year as well as the 19 to 1 upset win the previous fall in the similar Kentucky Turf Cup Stakes, and there’s little doubt that Get Smokin will be in front from the start where he likes it and could successfully play “come catch me” once again.

Most of the other nine can complete the exacta or trifecta, with a bit extra emphasis on Limited Liability (4) and Grand Sonata (5), who (combined) have finished first or second in 19 of 46 turf races, mostly stakes. That being said, Corruption (1), Starting Over (8) and Hush of a Storm (12) could also run into the exotics.

Win Bets:

We should start with Redistricting (3) and consider a win bet at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

I would not hesitate to make a second win bet, on either Rebel Red (7) or on Get Smokin (10), whichever offers higher odds, of at least 3 to 1.

Exactas:

Box Redistricting (3), Rebel Red (7), Get Smokin (10)

Redistricting (3), Rebel Red (7), Get Smokin (10) over Redistricting (3), Rebel Red (7), Get Smokin (10), Corruption (1), Limited Liability (4), Grand Sonata (5), Starting Over (8), Hush of a Storm (12)