Race 9 at Saratoga | Saturday, July 26 | Post Time 5:04 PM Eastern

Lake George Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $175,000 | One Mile and One-Sixteenth on Turf | Fillies, Three Years Old

Top Contenders to win: Aterradora (8), Classic Q (5), Play With Fire (10)

For use in second place on some exacta tickets: Daisy Flyer (3), Lavender Disaster (4), Pretty Lavish (2), Princess Attitude (6)

Analysis and win contenders:

Aterradora (8) is one of only two horses in this field to have run well in a graded stakes race on grass previously, the other being Daisy Flyer (3). Aterradora finished fourth in the Edgewood Stakes in May, won by three-year-old turf filly division leader Nitrogen, who won her next start, also a stakes race. Off that effort, Aterradora finished fourth again, this time behind Fionn, who came back to win the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks Invitational earlier this month, beating Nitrogen by a nose. Those two fillies would be the prohibitive favorite here. What I like is, although jockey Ricardo Santana rode the filly to a fourth-place effort when in the saddle for the first time in the Regret, top trainer Mike Maker gives Santana the mount again. In the Regret, Aterradora had some traffic trouble which didn’t really give her a position from which to win, but two before that, when last of 12 in a highly rated allowance race, the filly exploded late to go from 12^th to 2^nd in the final stages. Considering there are no standouts in the race and off the pair of fourth place efforts, Aterradora may go to post around her 10 to 1 starting odds, giving us a nice profit if she runs back to her effort three back.

Classic Q (5) led from start to finish to win the non-graded Wild Applause Stakes on this inner turf course at Saratoga 23 days ago, and she won an allowance race by almost five lengths when rallying from fourth two races before that. She’s versatile, and she’s good enough to win, BUT on the other hand she finished seventh in the Regret, the same race Aterradora finished fourth in, as the 3 to 2 favorite. In this field, Classic Q may once again have an easy early lead as there does not appear to be any other horses which may want the early lead, and in that case she could be tough.

Play With Fire (10) rallied from eighth lengths back to come up a half-length shy of beating Classic Q in the Wild Applause, and she won the Hilltop Stakes prior to that. With Prat out of town to ride at Del Mar, Manny Franco gets the call and wins his share for the top Chad Brown barn, and since the filly closed form last of eight to win the Hilltop I am not as concerned about the outside post as I might otherwise be as Franco can drop her back early and come around late.

As to the others mentioned above for use in second position on exacta tickets – Pretty Lavish (2), Daisy Flyer (3), Lavender Distaste (4) and Princess Attitude (6), all have good ability to pass horses and could hit the board but appear to be a bit less probable than the three top contenders.

Win Bets:

We should start with Aterradora (8) and consider a win bet at odds of 3 to 1 or more. Next, I would consider a second win bet on either Play With Fire (10) or Classic Q (5), whichever is the highest odds near post time, provided those odds are 3 to 1 or more.

Exactas:

Box Classic Q (5), Aterradora (8) and Play With Fire (10).

Classic Q (5), Aterradora (8) and Play With Fire (10) over Classic Q (5), Aterradora (8), Play With Fire (10), Lavish (2), Daisy Flyer (3) and Princess Attitude (6).

I will leave Lavender Disaster (6) off this ticket as she opens as the 5 to 2 second choice so most exactas including her will not provide a decent return for the risk, except perhaps the exacta of Aterradora (8) over Lavender Disaster (4), which can be played as well.