Race 10 at Churchill Downs | Saturday, June 13 | Post Time 5:28 PM Eastern

Chorleywood Stakes | Purse $200,000 | One Mile and Three Eighths on Turf | Four-Year Olds and Upward

Top Contenders: Spoiler (3), Burnham Square (1), Parchment Party (2), Chapman’s Peak (7)

Spoiler (3) is aptly named because he will be among the higher-odds horses in the field, given his turf stakes record of 0-1-1 in three races. He is running in his second race since being claimed by trainer Mike Maker, his first turf try for Maker, and his first attempt at a marathon (1 3/8 and farther). Maker has no fewer than nine horses in turf marathons, and every one of those horses followed this pattern, with only two horses paying less than $10 and only two paying better than $40.

The reason Maker is so good with these horses is that when they ran longer races, the slower fractions allowed them to conserve energy as opposed to the high-pressure early-pace races in the shorter races, and each one has earned better Equibase Speed Figures. Eight of the nine horses improved by nine Equibase Speed Figures points when their previous race was one mile to one and one-sixteenth. One horse won its first race off the claim at a mile and one-half, then won a marathon.

In his last race (April 26) at one and one-sixteenth, Spoiler earned a 100 figure. This projects this horse to earn about 108, which is fast enough to win compared to Burnham Square (1) and Parchment Party (2), both of which earned 107 figures in their recent races. Better still, Spoiler entered the June 4 allowance, but Maker scratched him to run in this race. I really think Spoiler can beat the favorites.

Burnham Square (1) and Parchment Party (2) have legitimate chances to win, but Burnham Square is the better of the two. Burnham Square just won the Grade 3 Louisville Stakes on the turf, a marathon at Churchill Downs. Before that, he won the Elkhorn Stakes at Keeneland. He earned the Elkhorn in his second race of the year after six months off and earned a 100 figure before he earned 107 in Louisville. If Spoiler can’t upset Burnham Square, he should win.

Parchment Party (2) has won four straight marathons in the U.S. His only poor race came when he raced across the world in Australia last November. Since then, he has won both races with 107 figures. However, all his races have been on dirt. On turf, he has yet even to hit the board in three career turf tries. In his three poor efforts, he didn’t wear blinkers, which he wore in his last races, so it is possible he can run another “A” effort.

Chapman’s Peak (7) has raced the least of the eight entrants. He won three of eight turf races. His best race came at Churchill Downs, when he led in the late stretch and was beaten by a head in the Commonwealth Stakes last November, earning a 107 figure. He took two and a half months off from December to February, then finished third at a mile and a sixteenth. He tried a mile and a half on April 16 and won nicely. He is a four-year-old and can run and improve in his third start off the layoff. He has a shot to be part of the exacta and can win.

Win Bets:

Spoiler (3) at 4 to 1 or higher.

Burnham Square (1) at 8 to 5 or higher.

Chapman’s Peak (7) at 5 to 1 or higher.

Parchment Party (2) at 7 to 2 or higher.

Exactas: (The lowest payoffs will occur if Burnham Square and Parchment Party finish 1st and 2nd, so we won’t use them. If they finish 1st and 2nd, so be it.)

Spoiler (3), Chapman’s Peak (7) over Burnham Square (1), Parchment Party (2), Chapman’s Peak (7)

Burnham Square (1), Parchment Party (2), Chapman’s Peak (7) over Spoiler (3), Chapman’s Peak (7)

Trifectas:

Spoiler (3) over Burnham Square (1), Parchment Party (2), Chapman’s Peak (7) over Burnham Square (1), Parchment Party (2), Chapman’s Peak (7)

Burnham Square (1), Parchment Party (2), Chapman’s Peak (7) over Spoiler (3) over Burnham Square (1), Parchment Party (2), Chapman’s Peak (7)

Burnham Square (1), Parchment Party (2), Chapman’s Peak (7) over Burnham Square (1), Parchment Party (2), Chapman’s Peak (7) over Spoiler (3)