Race 10 at Churchill Downs | Saturday, June 14 | Post Time 5:26 PM Eastern

Chorleywood Stakes | Purse $200,000 | One Mile and Three Eighths on Turf | Four Year Olds and Upward

Top Contenders: Highway Robber (8), Lambeth (6), Sugoi (10), Utah Beach (3), Verstappen (9)

The fact that five of the 10 can win should result in no heavy favorite and some decent betting value on two or three of the five contenders. If that assumption is correct, we’ll start with Highway Robber (8), who has earned over $1 million on grass, with a strong record of 4-2-2 in 10 starts on turf in his career, nine if you exclude the Dubai City of Gold Stakes at Meydan this March, which is easy to do. Prior to that, Highway Robber won the very similar Sycamore Stakes at Keeneland last fall, his fifth straight race on grass when winning or missing by no more than half-length. Better still, his two best efforts came around this distance, in the Sycamore and in the Kentucky Turf Cup prior to that. Returning to the U.S. after the poor try in Dubai, Highway Robber ran in the Grade 1 Turf Classic Stakes on Derby Day and ran HUGE when rallying from eighth to get within a neck of the top two in the stretch, ending up third and beaten a neck by Mercante, who won the Arlington Stakes on May 31 off the Turf Classic effort. Considering Highway Robber should improve second back in the U.S. and that Mercante improved to win a stakes, this hard knocking turf runner has a big shot to win.

Perhaps going to post at even higher odds than Highway Robber will be Lambeth (6), considering he finished fourth as the 6 to 5 favorite in his most recent race, the Isaac Murphy Marathon on the dirt at Churchill Downs on April 30. Prior to that he won the $200K Temperance Hill Stakes at one mile and one half at Oaklawn on dirt, so we know he can run well at this 11-furlong trip. Another reason Lambeth may be ignored by bettors is he’s trying turf for the first time, but having run 11 races, that’s not a concern of mine. His breeding is IMPECCABLE for this marathon trip on grass, as he’s a three-quarter brother (same wire and grand sire) to Linda’s Gift, who is a graded stakes winner at 11-12 furlongs on turf and who has won six of 16 turf races. Except perhaps for Lord Bullingdon on the rail, Lambeth may be the horse who goes for the lead from the start as those were the tactics used when winning the Temperance Hill in March, with Hernandez up then as now, and since Lambeth earned a 106 Equibase Speed Figure in that effort, he could have a say in the outcome of this race at high odds.

Sugoi (10) won the Grade 3 Louisville Stakes over this course at 12 furlongs last May, then led late and settled for second in the 2024 edition of this race. He got back on track with a win at 12 furlongs on grass in January in the Connally Stakes but his two starts since resulted in poorer efforts. The jockey change to Saiz is telling, as Saez rode him just once before, to a win in April in the race Maker claimed him out of before winning the Louisville at 19 to 1 odds. Given his last two effort, I expect Sugoi to be ignored a bit in the wagering BUT considering he’s been first or second in five of eight grass races at Churchill and considering the success the team of Maker and Saez have overall, Sugoi may be another horse at odds worth betting in this field.

Utah Beach (3) and Verstappen (9) just finished first and second, respectively, in this year’s Louisville Stakes, which Sugoi had won the previous year, finishing fourth this year. Utah Beach was winning his second stakes in a row in the Louisville, having won the Elkhorn Stakes in April, with the Elkhorn being the spring equivalent of the Sycamore, which Highway Robber won last fall. Cheminaud is two for two aboard Utah Beah Now and the horse has no real knocks except he will likely be lower odds than the 3 to 1 he was in the Louisville. Verstappen was beaten a nose by Sugoi in the Connally in January, and last month he led late but was run down even later by Utah Beach in the Louisville. He has as many wins (six) as second place efforts (also six) in his carer of 26 races, but then again, he’s finished as part of the exacta in nearly half of his starts. Verstappen has also but good races back-to-back, such as when winning two in a row before losing by a nose in the Connally from last November through January this year. As such, although it appears he’s as content finishing second as first, he’s a must to use on exacta tickets we play involving this race.

Win Bets:

Highway Robber (8) at 5 to 2 or higher.

Lambeth (6) at 4 to 1 or more.

Sugoi (10) at 4 to 1 or more.

Utah Beach (3) at 4 to 1 or more.

Exacta:

Box Highway Robber (8), Lambeth (6), Sugoi (10), Utah Beach (3), Verstappen (9)