Race 8 at Saratoga | Saturday, June 7 | Post Time 3:17 PM Eastern

Metropolitan Handicap – Grade 1 | Purse $1 Million | One Mile | Three Year Olds and Upward

Analysis of the field:

This year’s Metropolitan Handicap, otherwise known as the Met Mile, drew a field of five horses and so several people are going to skip it either because of the field size, or because Fierceness (1) opens at even money and may appear pretty much unbeatable to much of the public. This is because he just won the Alysheba Stakes five weeks ago at odds of 4 to 5, in his first start following six months and his runner-up effort behind Sierra Leone in the Breeders’ Cup Classic last November. Fierceness won both the Jim Dandy and Travers last summer at Saratoga to bring his record over the track to three-for-three.

My opinion is that Fierceness, who can improve off a career best 117 Equibase Speed Figure in his second start off a layoff, can win, but he’s no standout and if you ran this race 100 times he might win about 33 times (not 50 as suggested by his even money starting odds), so his fair odds are 2 to 1. It might seem like I’m splitting hairs but the difference in probability compared to odds can be significant.

Some of the betting public is going to gravitate to White Abarrio (2), the second starting odds betting choice at 9 to 5, as they feel he offers an alternative to Fierceness as he comes into the race off wins in the Pegasus World Cup in January and the Ghostzapper Stakes near the end of March, by an average margin of five and one-half lengths. On the other hand, White Abarrio is ZERO-for-THREE at this one turn mile trip in graded stakes, having finished fifth in the 2024 Met Mile (at 8 to 5 odds), having finished third in this race in 2023 and having finished third in the Cigar Mile in 2022. His two wins this year yielded 110 and 105 Equibase Speed Figures which aren’t good enough to win if repeated against three of the other four horses’ best figures this year. He’s not a win contender in my opinion or put another way his probability to win is less than 20%, so his fair odds are 5 to 1.

Then there’s Raging Torrent (5), who opens at 5 to 1 and in my opinion will go into the gate at lower odds since he won the $1 million Group 2 Godolphin Mile Stakes in Dubai in his most recent race on April 5 with a 114 Equibase Speed Figure. Last year as a three-year-old, Raging Torrent ran huge races winning the Grade 1 Pat O’ Brien Stakes in his first start against older horses, with a career best 119 figure, then to cap off his three-year-old season he won the Malibu Stakes with a 115 figure. He has a bit higher probability of winning than White Abarrio, but less than fierceness, so his fair odds are 9 to 2.     

Castle Chaos (3) will be the highest odds horse in the field and logically so as he’s a bit over his head and has a 3-6-5 career record, with his best efforts in any races close to this level when second in the Carter Stakes at this distance last April with a 98 figure. His probability is about 3%, which means his odds should be about 33 to 1.

That leads me to the horse I think is worth betting to win at just about 2 to 1 or more, who opens at 4 to 1, Just a Touch (4). A four-year-old like Fierceness and Raging Torrent, Just a Touch has already run two “A” races this year and his best is yet to come. Just a Touch was on the Derby trail last year the same as Fierceness but unlike Fierceness, Just a Touch never ran as a two-year-old. In just his second start, Just a Touch finished second in the Gotham Stakes, then trying two turns for the first time in April, he finished second to Sierra Leone (after leading late). His lack of seasoning and experience got to him when he finished 20^th in the Derby, with Fierceness also faring poorly to end up 15^th in that race. He nearly won the Iowa Derby in July then took time off to mature and grow up, which Just a Touch did in phenomenal fashion in his three-year-old debut following six months off. Coming back around two turns in March without a sprint prep first, Just a Touch won by 10 and earned a 115 Equibase Speed Figure which was higher than the 114 figure Fierceness earned when second in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Improving markedly in his second start of the year, Just a Touch won by seven while geared down in the late stages, earning a 120 figure better than the 117 Fierceness earned winning the Alysheba. The fact both of Just a Touch’s wins this year came in allowance company and not stakes is the reason his starting odds of 4 to 1 are four times higher than Fierceness, but there is little doubt this is the race trainer Brad Cox has been pointing for since Just a Touch started his 2025 campaign. He can win on the lead or from off the pace and it’s likely he will be ahead of Fierceness when the field turns for home, and he may have a better kick than Fierceness as well.

Win Bets: Just a Touch (4) at odds of 2 to 1

Exactas:

Box Just a Touch (4), Fierceness (1)

For a smaller amount than the exacta above, box Just a Touch (4), Raging Torrent (5)