Race 9 at Colonial Downs | Saturday, March 14 | Post Time 5:10 PM Eastern

Virginia Downs | Purse $500,000 | One Mile and One Eighth | Three-Year-Olds

Winning contenders: Lockstocknpharoah (6), High Camp (5)

Other contenders: Work (4), Confessional (8)

In exacta in second: Buetane (1)

Analysis and contenders:

Lockstocknpharoah (6) has won twice, both easily. His debut on December 19 was a visually impressive effort, even after he lunged at the start. He started seventh, then made a big rally from fifth at the quarter to be in front with an eighth to go, and won by two lengths. In his second start on February 7, Lockstocknpharoah led from the start, controlling and not giving any horse a shot. Even though he was in front by three lengths at the eighth, he kept stretching the lead to eight lengths. He earned a 99 Equibase Speed Figure, the best figure of any horse in the field. His trainer, Thomas Drury, Jr., is a good trainer who has won six dirt route stakes from 29 horses the past five years, and better yet, he has four (from 11) dirt route stakes winners that won their previous races. One of those, California Burrito, who won the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes last year, has the same running style as Lockstocknpharoah, and ran one mile in his prep. Lockstocknpharoah can go to the lead early, but can also close, and he is likely to improve in his third start and second route. He is the one to beat.

High Camp (5) earned his win on February 7 in his second start after a second-place finish in his career debut. He showed a good style when he put in a kick from fourth while six wide at the eighth with hand urging to win by a length. He earned a 92 figure in the win and an 80 figure in his debut. He is likely to continue to improve. His trainer, William Walden, is an up-and-coming trainer who has 80 wins from 200 starts in 2025.

Work (4) had his first win in his sixth start. His other races were poor, but his win has style. He ran five wide and rallied to win by a neck, earning a 92 figure. Work is by Triple Crown champion American Pharaoh, who also sired Lockstocknpharoah. Although Work earned his win on turf, he has a dirt pedigree as his dam sire is Into Mischief. Bettors may underestimate him, but I think he isn’t as fast as the other top contenders.

Confessional (8) won his first start in October, then finished second in January, both sprints. His second race earned an 83 figure, so he figured to improve in his next race on February 7, a two-turn race in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, but he started third and faded to seventh. That may be due to taking blinkers off, which he had in both previous races. Blinkers come back on, and he could have a shot to improve, but he will need to run much faster from an 83, as all three of the other contenders have 92 and higher figures. I will use him second in exactas, and also with Work.

Bob Baffert’s Buetane (1) is likely to be one of the favorites. I don’t think he can win. Beutane finished third in the Southwest Stakes on February 3, after running second from the start until the quarter pole, and lost ground in the eighth. He may be best suited as a one-turn horse. Therefore, I am taking a stand against Buetane.

Win bets:

Lockstocknpharoah (6) at fair odds of 2 or 1 or higher.

High Camp (5) can be considered at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.

Exactas: Lockstocknpharoah (6) and High Camp (5) over Lockstocknpharoah (6), High Camp (5), Work (4), Confessional (8), and Beutane (1).