Race 9 at Colonial Downs | Saturday, March 15 | Post Time 5:10 PM Eastern

Virginia Derby | Purse $500,000 | Three Year Olds | One Mile and One Eighth

Analysis of the early pace scenario and how it might affect the outcome:

“Pace Makes the Race” is not a cliché statement, because how a race is run in the early stages, the “early pace” often has a big impact on the outcome. The outcome of this year’s Virginia Derby, being run for the first time on dirt since its inception in 1998 and for the first time as part of the “Road to the Derby” series, will be no different. This is because Georgia Magic (10) draws the extreme outside post and when winning his only start, a six-furlong sprint, led from start to finish. He stretches out from a sprint after pressing the fast pace in third, only one-half length from the lead, for the opening half mile, and it is highly likely he will be trying for the lead from the start. John Hancock (2) and Getaway Car (6) have five wins combined to date, and all five were earned leading from start to finish. American Promise (3) earned his only win when leading from start to finish. So, as it stands, it will take only two of the four to go for the lead and run much faster than average, setting up the horses which can stalk the pacesetters for success.

Top win contenders – Rapture (7) and Authentic Gallop (8):

Based on his pedigree, being a son of Uncle Mo out of a Bernardini mare, it is likely trainer Brad Cox believed that Rapture (7) would be better suited to racing at a mile or more so entered him in a one-turn mile race for his career debut in December. Rapture finished second of nine in that race, then when stretched out one-sixteenth of a mile and to two turns for his second career start on January 25, Rapture improved markedly, drawing off by six and one-half lengths in a field of 12 and improving from a 78 Equibase speed figure in his debut, to a 98 figure, which is nearly stakes quality at this time of year. Flavien Prat, who had a career-best year in 2024, rode Rapture to victory and rides back here, choosing this horse whose last win was in a maiden race over John Hancock, who Prat rode to victory in the Sam F. Davis Stakes five weeks ago.

In both starts, Rapture has shown maturity in closing from behind, whereas John Hancock, who earned a 97 figure in the Sam F. Davis, has won both his starts when leading from start to finish. The ability to stalk and pounce is the running style most likely to be successful in the Virginia Derby, because Getaway Car won the Sunland Derby (earning a 100 figure) leading start to finish. With the addition of Georgia Magic to the field, who is stretching out from six furlongs and who earned his only win leading from start to finish, there is a high probability of a faster than average early pace, allowing Prat to put Rapture in a great spot around third or fourth early before kicking on to win the race and establish himself as a contender as we move closer and closer to the first Saturday in May.

Authentic Gallop (8) had won one of three dirt route races as well as had raced on turf twice, prior to his last start four weeks ago at Oaklawn Park. Taking blinkers off which had been worn for all his races since his second start last summer, Authentic Gallop ran the best race of his life, by far, earning a 94 figure which is within range of the 97 to 100 figures earned by John Hancock, Rapture and Getaway Car in their most recent races. However, like Rapture, and not like John Hancock or Getaway Car, Authentic Gallop does not need the early lead to win, having relief from fourth with an eighth of a mile to run in his win last month. Jockey Javier Castellano rides for the first time but that is of no concern considering Castellano rode Mage to win the 2023 Kentucky Derby after taking over for another rider and rode Arcangelo to four straight wins in 2023 including the Belmont Stakes and Travers Stakes, having taken over for another jockey for the first of those wins.

There is no doubt John Hancock (2) and Getaway Car (6) have run fast enough to win this race but it appears they will battle for the lead from the start, perhaps at any cost, and be joined by Georgia Magic (10). If both John Handcock and Getaway Car run in the race, I can’t endorse either of them to win. However, if only one of the pair runs, the other could get the early lead and never look back. John Hancock earned a 96-figure winning in his debut in January then 97 winning the Sam F. Davis, while Getaway Car earned a 100 figure in December when second in the Los Alamitos Futurity then 100 in the Sunland Derby last month following a two-month layoff. It just doesn’t appear to me, based on their previous starts, that either has learned to sit off the pace, even in second, particularly Getaway Car, who ran second from start to finish in the American Pharoah Stakes last October behind Citizen Bull, another Baffert trainee.

American Promise (3) is an interesting horse who could make noise at high odds if he can relax off the pace and rally late. He’s won just one of eight races, but that one, on December 29, earned a 102 figure, good enough to win this race if Rapture doesn’t improve a little and if Authentic Gallop doesn’t improve a bit more than a little. American Promise led from start to finish in that race at one mile and one-sixteenth and had shown some ability to sit off the pace last October when second for the first half mile before leading, then holding onto second place. He had a very poor start in the Southwest Stakes in January when the plan was to lead from the start, then rushed up before tiring. In the Risen Star Stakes last month, he started fifth of 12, moved up to third, then retreated to fifth. Getting his third different jockey in his last three races, this time Nik Juarez, I’m not sure what tactics might be used, but considering he is trained by D. Wayne Lukas and is out of the mare which produced Hoosier Philly, American Promise may warrant a couple of dollars to win so we don’t kick ourselves after the fact.

Bets:

Win Bets: Rapture (7) at odds of 9 to 5 or more.

Authentic Gallop (8) at odds of 7 to 2 or more.

Additionally, “IF” either John Hancock (2) or Getaway Car (6) does not run, the other can be considered for a win bet at 3 to 1 or more.

Exactas:

Box Rapture (7) and Authentic Gallop (8).

Box Rapture (7), Authentic Gallop (8) and American Promise (3).