Race 6 at Turfway Park | Saturday March 2 | Post Time 8:25 PM Eastern

John Battaglia Memorial Stakes | Purse $150,000 | One Mile and One Sixteenth | Three Year Olds

Overview:

The John Battaglia Memorial is a “Road to the Derby” points race and a prep for the Jeff Ruby Steaks in three weeks or the Blue Grass Stakes in five weeks. Although it is run on all-weather and not conventional dirt, the Jeff Ruby has produced some top Derby runners such as 2023 runner-up Two Phils and Animal Kingdom, who won in 2011. Also noteworthy is the fact Rich Strike finished fourth in this race in 2022 before a third place finish in the Jeff Ruby then won the Kentucky Derby as one of the biggest longshots in history. Considering the John Battaglia’s relationship to the Jeff Ruby, this year’s race may offer some insight into top runners in upcoming Derby prep races, and it might also offer some good betting value as well.

Analysis and top win contenders:

The horses with the most “buzz” at the meeting is Epic Ride (6), who won the Leonatus Stakes on February 2. That race was run at a mile, so not too different from the mile and one-sixteenth of the John Battaglia. Prior to that, Epic Ride raced twice in sprints at Turfway, first missing by a neck and then easily winning by five lengths. When stretched out to two turns for the Leonatus, Epic Ride was within a head after a quarter mile had been run then led thereafter, with no challengers whatsoever in the final quarter mile as he cruised to a four length win. Although he led virtually wire to wire, Epic Ride may not be a need-the-lead type as he does not wear blinkers and as he middle pace figure (like a speed figure) was 85, with a final figure of 94 which tells us he did not decelerate in the latter stages. Since that last race, Epic Ride put in a spectacular half-mile workout which was the fastest of 46 on the day, so he is entering the John Battaglia in tip-top shape.

Although Epic Ride is absolutely a contender to win, there are two horses exiting maiden wins around two turns that can compete with the likely betting favorite. The first of the two is Bolt at Midnight (4), who won at the same mile trip as Epic Ride, seven days later, and also at a mile. That was his second route race over the track and in the first of the two he ran gamely the entire last eighth of a mile when battling nose-and-nose to the finish, beaten a nose and a head for the win on the wire. Improving a lot in his second route, Bolt at Midnight controlled the pace from the start in an 11 horse field and gave not a single horse a chance, drawing off late. In doing so he too showed he may not be a need the lead type, as his pace figure was 92 and his final figure a 107 which is vastly faster than the 94 figure Epic Ride earned winning one week earlier. Even if he is a need the lead type, Bolt at Midnight may have an easy lead as the three horses with inside posts have no desire to lead, allowing the colt to establish an easy lead. If he does that, with the late speed shown in his last effort, Bolt at Midnight can post the mild upset and win this year’s John Battaglia.

The other horse existing a strong maiden win is Encino (12), who gets the extreme outside post but who may not be disadvantaged by the draw as it might appear. In his debut, at a mile, Encino broke nearly last when 10^th of 12 but showed a lot of ability in passing every horse but the winner late, still missing by just a neck on the wire. In his only other start, on January 26, Encino led every step of the way, winning much more easily than the half-length margin at the end makes it appear. This is because horses approached him multiple times during the race and he just shook them off with small bursts of speed. Similar to both Epic Ride and Bolt at Midnight, Encino was not slowing down in the final quarter mile, as his pace figure was 81 and his final figure was 91. So although the main reason he closed from behind in his debut was a bad start, Encino can be ridden that way, or jockey Concepcion can use some of his early speed to get a mid-pack position, or even second behind likely early leader Bolt at Midnight, at which point Encino may still have a sufficient late kick to win.

All in all, considering how talented these three colts are, this is going to be one heck of a race to watch and to wager on.

Among the others, honorable mention (and the potential to fill out the exacta or trifecta) goes to Gettysburg Address (1), Leonatus Stakes runner-up Blue Eyed George (7), Mission Ready (9) and Katheeb (14), all who are lightly raced three year olds who are a cut below the top three but could improve.

Bets:  

Win: Based on the fair (minimum) odds below, we should consider betting one or two (among three) contenders at the highest odds – Bolt at Midnight (4) 2 to 1, Epic Ride (6) 5 to 2, Encino (12) 5 to 2

Exactas:

Box:  Bolt at Midnight (4), Epic Ride (6), Encino (12)

Also Bolt at Midnight (4), Epic Ride (6), Encino (12) over Bolt at Midnight (4), Epic Ride (6), Encino (12), Gettysburg Address (1), Blue Eyed George (7), Mission Ready (9) and Katheeb (14).