Race 12 at Turfway Park | Saturday, March 21 | Post Time 6:25 PM Eastern

Jeff Ruby Steaks – Grade 3 | Purse $777,000 | One Mile and One Eighth | Three-Year-Olds

Winning contenders: Chaos Agent (8), Fulleffort (2)

Other contender: Stark Contrast (11)

In exacta in second and third on trifectas: Maximum Prime (7), Black Hornet (5), Medici (6), Brave Force (9)

Analysis and contenders:

Chaos Agent (6) won his only race, a two-turn event at Turfway Park last month. He won professionally and made a rally from fourth on the far turn to get within a length while four wide, leading just before the final eighth pole, and won easily. He earned a 94 Equibase Speed Figure. There is only one horse faster in this field, Fulleffort (2), a 99 figure on an all-weather track. In the 2025 Jeff Ruby winner, the winner of this race, Final Gambit, also broke his prior maiden win. Chaos Agent trainer Josie Carroll has won 30 stakes races on all-weather surfaces in the past year and has won seven consecutive races in a row, mostly at Woodbine but also at Turfway. The owner, Pin Oak Stud, recently had Incredibolt win the Virginia Derby and will have another horse on the Road to the Derby. Chaos Agent can improve again to win this race.

Fulleffort (2) finished just a neck behind in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes a month ago with a strong kick, earning a 99 figure. That was his fourth improvement in rating, and he should get better again. In the John Battaglia, Fulleffort was 10th for the first half mile, then he was still ninth at the quarter pole when he ran five paths wide. He was still fifth with an eighth to go and just barely missed winning. Both Fulleffort and Chaos Agent have history in their favor, as three successive winners of the Jeff Ruby won their previous races on all-weather tracks. Fulleffort gets Irad Ortiz, Jr., who rode him to his only win by five lengths in October. Trainer Cox won the 2025 Jeff Ruby with Final Gambit, and he could win this race again.

Stark Contrast (11) won his latest race, the Eddie Logan Stakes in January, on turf at Santa Anita. He ran faster than any horse in the field in his last race, earning a spectacular 107 figure. Previously, the colt has won three races and missed by less than a length in the Group 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Stakes on October 31. Three horses in the last 10 years of the Jeff Ruby won turf stakes races immediately before this race. Considering that effort in the Eddie Logan came after a two-month layoff, and Stark Contrast has been on another two-month layoff. His trainer, Michael McCarthy, won the 2024 Jeff Ruby with Endlessly and also won his last race. He has a shot.

Win bets:

Chaos Agent (8) at fair odds of 5 to 2 or higher.

Fulleffort can also be considered at odds of 5 to 2 or higher, but his odds will be lower than Chaos Agent.

Stark Contrast (11) is considered fair at odds of 7 to 2 or higher.

Exactas: 

Chaos Agent (8), Fulleffort (2) over Chaos Agent (8), Fulleffort (2), Stark Contrast (11), Maximum Prime (7), Black Hornet (5), Medici (6), Brave Force (9).

Chaos Agent (8), Fulleffort (2), Stark Contrast (11) over Chaos Agent (8), Fulleffort (2), Stark Contrast (11), Maximum Prime (7), Black Hornet (5), Medici (6), Brave Force (9).