Race 12 at Fair Grounds | Saturday March 23 | Post Time 6:42 PM Eastern

Louisiana Derby – Grade 2 | Purse $1 Million | One Mile and Three Sixteenths | Three Year Olds

 

Analysis and top win contenders:

Common Defense (10) not only ran the best race of his career last month when second in the Rebel Stakes, he ran the fastest race of any three year old in the field by virtue of earning a 102 Equibase Speed Figure. Not only that, but Common Defense improved his figure for the third straight race, having earned an 82 speed figure when winning at a mile on January 13 then an 83 figure even though fifth in the Southwest Stakes three weeks later. In the Rebel, Common Defense relaxed in seventh after a quarter mile had been run then moved up nicely to fourth before taking second with an eight of a mile to run. Although not making up any ground on winner Timberlake, who won the Champagne Stakes last fall before a fourth place effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Common Defense was clearly second by three lengths at the end. Since pointing to this race instead of the Arkansas Derby, Common Defense has put in three workouts over the track, the most recent the third best of 42 on the day for five furlongs (59.6), which demonstrates he is getting better as he matures. Jockey Brian Hernandez, Jr. rode Common Defense for the first time in the Rebel as well as rode stablemate Real Men Violin (9) (also trained by Ken McPeek) in his last five races but sticks with Common Defense for this race. A Race Lens query tells us in the last year when McPeek and Hernandez, Jr. team up in dirt route stakes, they have won at very strong 26% clip (11 for 43) and betting them to win has returned nearly $4 for every $2 bet to win. As such, Common Defense appears to be the horse to beat in this year’s Louisiana Derby.

Track Phantom (12) gets the outside post and usually a horse with his early speed could be disadvantaged, but in this case since he nearly won the Risen Star Stakes last month when breaking from the 11 post in a field of 12 I am not concerned. Not only are there very few other horses in the field which have shown a desire to lead early in a race, this mile and three-sixteenths trip starts at the top of the stretch, allowing for considerable time for jockey Joel Rosario to guide Track Phantom closer to the rail before the first turn. Prior to the Risen Star, Track Phantom won three races in a row since stretching out to two turns in November, including the Gun Runner Stakes and Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds, earning speed figures of 100 and 93, respectively. Over a sloppy track in the Risen Star Stakes, Track Phantom had an easy lead from the start in a field of 12 but was caught near the wire by an exceptionally talented horse in Sierra Leone, who is expected to make his next start in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland in April. That effort earned Track Phantom a 99 figure second only to the 102 figure Common Defense earned in the Rebel. Depending on how easily Track Phantom can get the lead he likes in the early stages of the Louisiana Derby, he has the potential to be very tough to catch in this race.

Real Men Violin (9) and Honor Marie (7) finished second and first, respectively, in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last November. Honor Marie rallied from last of eight, while Real Men Violin was fifth in the early stages before being out finished by the winner. Honor Marie earned a strong 98 figure for that effort, while Real Men Violin earned a 95 figure when two lengths behind at the wire. Both made their return to the races in the Risen Star last month, with Honor Marie moving up from 11^th to fifth with an 89 figure. In the Risen Star Real Men Violin finished eighth with an 80 figure. Last October, Real Men Violin beat Track Phantom by a half-length, so perhaps making his second start off the layoff, Real Men Violin could improve back to that level. Additionally, Real Men Violin worked in company with Common Defense on March 16, with both colts running five furlongs in a very strong 59.6, both of which were the third fastest of 42 workouts on the day at the distance. Honor Marie might also improve second off the layoff and back to the form shown last fall.

Last, but not least, among a quintet of contenders is Catching Freedom (5), who won the Smarty Jones Stakes on New Year’s Day with a 97 figure before a third of 12 finish in the Risen Star with a similar 96 figure. He was only one and one-quarter lengths behind runner-up Track Phantom at the end, and with another consistent effort could also be in the mix at the end. 

Bets:  

Win: Common Defense (10) and Track Phantom (12) can be considered for win bets at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.

Real Men Violin (9) and Honor Marie (7) can be considered for win bets, for smaller amounts as compared to Common Defense and Track Phantom, at odds of 8 to 1 or more

Exactas:

Common Defense (10) and Track Phantom (12) over Common Defense (10), Track Phantom (12), Real Men Violin (9), Honor Marie (7) and Catching Freedom (5).

Common Defense (10), Track Phantom (12), Real Men Violin (9), Honor Marie (7) and Catching Freedom (5) over Common Defense (10) and Track Phantom (12).