Race 10 at Fair Grounds | Saturday March 25 | Post Time 5:36 PM Eastern

Muniz Memorial Classic Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $300,000 | One Mile and One Eighth on Turf | Four Year Olds and Upward

Main win contenders:

Atone (1) gets the ground saving rail and that allows jockey Luis Saez to go for the lead from the start, as the horse did winning one race before last (on November 10, 2022) or to relax off the pace and rally strongly as he did winning the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational Stakes on January 28 in his most recent start. Those were two of the best races in his career and that’s saying something about a horse which has won over $1 million on grass while winning six of 19 turf races. Since the Pegasus, Atone put in a very strong five furlong workout, 59.4 and the best of 36 at the distance on the day, before leaving his home base in Florida, which tells us the horse is ready for another “A” effort good enough to win. Back to the pace scenario, or how the race may be run in the early and late stages, I note Two Emmys (6) just led from start to finish in the Grade 3 Fair Grounds Stakes over the course five weeks ago, as the 9 to 5 favorite. Two Emmys may be favored again, so there could be low odds overlay value on Atone, and it is very possible jockey Luis Saez (who has been aboard Atone twice previously, for a win and a second place finish) could be aggressive and deny Two Emmys the early lead it appears he needs to win, or causes Two Emmys to expend a bit too much energy early, allowing Atone to go by late for the win.

Gentle Soul (3) may come in under the radar for many bettors and may offer even better return for a win bet as compared to Atone. Gentle Soul is lightly raced for a six year old, but has a strong record of 5 for 11 including a three for five record in turf routes. He tried routing on turf for the first time in December of 2021 in his seventh career start, winning that race and another the next month before taking a 10 month layoff. Returning in November, he won as if he’d never been away then two later won the Colonel E.R. Bradley Stakes on the Fair Grounds turf with a career-best 105 Equibase Speed Figure. That compares nicely with the 106 and then 109 figures Atone earned in his two most recent races. After the Bradley, Gentle Soul entered a graded stakes for the first time in the Fair Ground Stakes, in which Two Emmys controlled the pace on exceptionally slow fractions from start to finish. Nevertheless, after being crowded back to last at the start and going very wide on the far turn, Gentle Soul rallied best of the race after the eventual winner had drawn clear. This time, if jockey Reylu Gutierrez (who has been aboard for the horse’s last four wins) can stay a bit closer in the early to middle stages of the race, Gentle Soul has potential to post the upset win or at least complete a profitable exacta.

Spooky Channel (5) is an exceptional turf horse who has won 12 of 27 races and even as an eight year old still has the physical and mental ability to compete effectively. He won the Grade 3 Sycamore Stakes in the fall of 2021 but was then on the sidelines for 14 months. Returning to win the Buddy Diliberto Stakes on the Fair Grounds Turf in late December, as if he had never been way, Spooky Channel earned a nearly career-best 112 Equibase Figure certainly good enough to win. Stretching out to a mile and one-half near the end of January for the John B. Connally Stakes in Texas, he made a mid-race move to the lead but could not sustain the bid and ended up third as the even money favorite. Still, Spooky Channel was very game and was only beaten a neck for second and less than one length for the win. Shortening up in distance may be to his advantage, as is the jockey change to Joel Rosario, so he rounds out a trio which appears to have the bulk of the probability to win this race.

Another Mystery (7) and Two Emmys (6) can be used on exacta tickets, mostly in the second position. As mentioned previously Two Emmys won the Fair Grounds Stakes wire-to-wire last month, and now has been first or second in 16 of 24 races. He has won two of his last seven races going back to January 22 and in two of those efforts he stayed on well for a minor award after leading late. Another Mystery was the horse who finished a neck ahead of Spooky Channel in the Connally Stakes last month and who also has a nice late kick on occasion.  

Win bets: Atone (1) should be considered for a win bet at odds of 9 to 5 or higher.

Additionally, Gentle Soul (3) can be considered for a win bet, for a smaller amount than on Atone, at odds of 3 to 1 or more. Spooky Channel (5) also has minimum odds of 3 to 1 but I will assume Gentle Soul will have higher odds near post time and would only want to bet one of the two.

Exactas:

Atone (1), Gentle Soul (3) and Spooky Channel (5) over Atone (1), Gentle Soul (3) and Spooky Channel (5), Two Emmys (6), Another Mystery (7)

Atone (1) and Gentle Soul (3) over Atone (1), Gentle Soul (3), Spooky Channel (5), Two Emmys (6) and Another Mystery (7)

Optionally you can also play the opposite of the two exactas above, which allows for multiple winning tickets if Atone, Gentle Soul and Spooky Channel finish first and second, and also covers them finishing second if Another Mystery or Two Emmys win;

Atone (1), Gentle Soul (3), Spooky Channel (5), Two Emmys (6), Another Mystery (7) over Atone (1), Gentle Soul (3) and Spooky Channel (5)

Atone (1), Gentle Soul (3), Spooky Channel (5), Two Emmys (6), Another Mystery (7) over Atone (1) and Gentle Soul (3).