Race 12 at Oaklawn | Saturday March 30 | Post Time 7:47 PM Eastern

Arkansas Derby – Grade 1 | Purse $1.5 Million | One Mile and One Eighth | Three Year Olds

 

Analysis and top win contenders:

Timberlake (2) is the one to beat, but may not be the top betting favorite, as that honor likely will go to Muth (7). Although first three times and second the other two among five starts in his career, Muth has a few knocks that make him vulnerable to win this race. Foremost among them is the fact he hasn’t run since January 6 when winning the San Vicente Stakes in California, and prior to that he ran two months earlier when second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Although Muth is trained by Bob Baffert, who won the race in 2012 (Bodemeister) and in 2015 (American Pharoah), both of those horses had run four to five weeks earlier. Although it might not seem like eight weeks is a significant hurdle, at this time of year in a three year old’s season, physical conditioning through racing is very important, and considering Timberlake last ran on February 24 when winning the Rebel, which American Pharoah did in 2015, that gives Timberlake an edge. Additionally, Timberlake earned a 105 Equibase Speed Figure in the Rebel, compared to a 95 figure which Muth earned I the San Vicente. Timberlake earned a career-best 106 figure winning the Champagne Stakes last October, compared to the 100 career-best figure Muth earned when second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. With Timberlake likely to improve considerably in his second start of the year, he may take a big step forward in this year’s Arkansas Derby and be the betting favorite in the Kentucky Derby.

We must also note that although Muth can win, he will be ineligible for any “Road to the Derby” points as he cannot run in the Derby this year because horses trained by Bob Baffert are suspended from entering this year’s Derby. More than likely, if Muth wins or runs well, he will point to the Preakness Stakes on May 18.

Mystik Dan (9) is also a contender, and a horse who appears to have a greater probability to win than Muth as well. Mystic Dan was visually impressive winning the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn on February 3, drawing off by eight lengths after skimming the rail in the stretch. He won rather easily and appeared to have gas left at the end, which portends well for his first try at nine furlongs. Improving to a field high 110 Equibase Speed Figure, the main concerns I have going into this race is Mystic Dan may not get the same trip in the Arkansas Derby, and comparing the four wide into the stretch trip Timberlake had in the Rebel versus the rail skimming ride Mystic Dan got in the Southwest, as well as the fact Timberlake ran on February 24 compared to Mystik Dan last running on February 3, I think Timberlake is slightly more probable to win his second stakes race in a row than Mystik Dan is. Nevertheless, Mystik Dan must be respected as a contender to win this race.

For betting purposes, particularly exacta wagers, we should try to find value and hope that we can “split” Timberlake and Mystik Dan with a higher odds horse finishing second. To that end, both Liberal Arts (5) and Just Steel (8) are horses that can achieve that goal. Just Steel finished second behind Mystik Dan in the Southwest, with Liberal Arts just another neck back in third, and both showed a good among in physical and mental toughness in doing so even though there was no chance of them winning.

Bets:  

Win: Timberlake (2) at odds of 3 to 2 or higher. If he were to have odds similar 9 to 5, which are his starting odds, Timberlake would be considered a low odds overlay.

Mystik Dan (9) can be considered for a win bet at 5 to 2 or higher. He opens at those same 5 to 2 odds but may have higher odds near post time as I expect Muth (7) to be heavily bet because Baffert is his trainer.

Exactas:

Timberlake (2) over Liberal Arts (5), Just Steel (8) and Mystik Dan (9).

Timberlake (2) and Mystik Dan (9) over Timberlake (2), Liberal Arts (5), Just Steel (8) and Mystik Dan (9).

Trifectas:

Timberlake (2) over Mystik Dan (9) and Muth (7) over Liberal Arts (5) and Just Steel (8)

Timberlake (2) and Mystik Dan (9) over Timberlake (2) Mystik Dan (9) and Muth (7) over Liberal Arts (5) and Just Steel (8)