Race 8 at Santa Anita | Saturday, March 7 | Post Time 6:41 PM Eastern

San Felipe Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $200,000 | One Mile and One Sixteenth | Three Year Olds

Winning contender is: So Happy (6)

Other contender: Start the Ride (2)

Analysis and contenders:

I’m starting with the even money favorite, Brant (4), trained by Bob Baffert, but I don’t think he can win. Brant earned a 105 figure when he ran in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, leading from the start, but caved to finish third. His best winning figure, 96, came in a sprint when he was leading from the start, but Brant has other early horses, Flash Fritz (1) and Robusta (7), who will try to take the lead, and he may be best suited as a one-turn horse. Therefore, I am taking a stand against Brant, and taking a stand with Potente (5), starting at 9 to 2, also trained by Baffert, who won his only start at six furlongs, which is a tall order for a horse to win a mile and one-sixteenth stakes in a Derby prep this March.

So Happy (6) won the San Vicente Stakes on January 10 at seven furlongs in his second start, earning a 100 Equibase Speed Figure, the highest winning figure of any other horse in the field. In the San Vicente, So Happy moved from third, three lengths behind with a quarter, then took the lead and won comfortably. So Happy gets the six post in this field where he will be able to stalk since there are at least two or three “early” horses. In 2023, Forbidden Kingdom won the San Vicente and the San Felipe, which is the same prep So Happy is using. Hall-of-Fame jockey Mike Smith rode So Happy in both his races, and Smith won this race in 2016 with Danzing Candy, in 2017 with Mastery, and with Life Is Good in 2021. So Happy put in a fantastic workout coming into this race, a four-furlong 47.4, which was the third best of 39 on the day, so he is the horse to beat.

Start the Ride (2) has only had one official race, winning the California Cup Derby Stakes on January 17. He ran on November 16, but he was declared a non-starter because he did not have a fair start. Coming off a two-month break, Start the Ride showed a strong late kick and should also benefit from all the early speed. Start the Ride only earned a 92 figure, but he is likely to improve in his second race after the layoff. Notably, California Chrome won the 2014 California Cup Derby, then took the San Felipe, and later the Santa Anita Derby and Kentucky Derby. With two entries by Baffert, Start the Ride could have value in a win bet as his starting odds are 12 to 1.

Win bets:

So Happy (6) at fair odds of 3 or 2 or higher.Start the Ride (2) can be considered at odds of 4 to 1 or higher.